NexusFi: Find Your Edge


Home Menu

 





Seasonal Trades


Discussion in Commodities

Updated
      Top Posters
    1. looks_one myrrdin with 102 posts (132 thanks)
    2. looks_two ron99 with 26 posts (75 thanks)
    3. looks_3 SMCJB with 21 posts (40 thanks)
    4. looks_4 mosalem2003 with 19 posts (9 thanks)
      Best Posters
    1. looks_one ron99 with 2.9 thanks per post
    2. looks_two SMCJB with 1.9 thanks per post
    3. looks_3 myrrdin with 1.3 thanks per post
    4. looks_4 mosalem2003 with 0.5 thanks per post
    1. trending_up 58,193 views
    2. thumb_up 334 thanks given
    3. group 71 followers
    1. forum 280 posts
    2. attach_file 37 attachments




 
Search this Thread

Seasonal Trades

  #1 (permalink)
 myrrdin 
Linz Austria
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TWS
Broker: Interactive Brokers
Trading: Commodities
Posts: 1,938 since Nov 2014
Thanks Given: 3,686
Thanks Received: 2,651

I just entered the NGH-NGF spread. This spread makes profit according to MRCI in the most recent 15 years if entered on September 30th, and held until 1st of December.

The spread is at approx. -0.04, and moved up to + 0.04 in all recent years during the fourth quarter.

I entered early this year, as the spread moved to the lower bound of ist recent trading range. I do not expect much higher NG prices in the near future.

Best regards, Myrrdin

Started this thread Reply With Quote
Thanked by:

Can you help answer these questions
from other members on NexusFi?
Futures True Range Report
The Elite Circle
NexusFi Journal Challenge - April 2024
Feedback and Announcements
ZombieSqueeze
Platforms and Indicators
NT7 Indicator Script Troubleshooting - Camarilla Pivots
NinjaTrader
Are there any eval firms that allow you to sink to your …
Traders Hideout
 
Best Threads (Most Thanked)
in the last 7 days on NexusFi
Get funded firms 2023/2024 - Any recommendations or word …
61 thanks
Funded Trader platforms
39 thanks
Battlestations: Show us your trading desks!
26 thanks
NexusFi site changelog and issues/problem reporting
26 thanks
The Program
18 thanks
  #3 (permalink)
 ron99 
Cleveland, OH
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: QST
Broker: QST, DeCarley Trading, Gain
Trading: Options on Futures
Posts: 3,081 since Jul 2011
Thanks Given: 980
Thanks Received: 5,785


I am refining my list of seasonals. I will post it when I am done. Have about 100 trades per year right now. 32 of them are spreads but I probably will be adding more of them while doing research at Seasonalgo.com.

I am wondering how this list will perform in the future. My current list has 81.6% winners the past 10 years (a trade is considered a loser if it has a EOD draw down of >$4,000 even if it ends profitable). I am wondering how much that % winners will drop in the future.

Reply With Quote
  #4 (permalink)
 myrrdin 
Linz Austria
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TWS
Broker: Interactive Brokers
Trading: Commodities
Posts: 1,938 since Nov 2014
Thanks Given: 3,686
Thanks Received: 2,651

I currently hold the following positions in relation to seasonal trading:

NGH7-NGF7: see below,

HOZ-RBZ: According to MRCI (they use the January contract), this spread was successful in 13 of the most recent 15 years, if entered early August and exited late October. Only once there is a loss of more than $4,000, Ron's exit criterium. Looks like an interesting time to enter this spread with a rather close stop below the January or April low.

LHG7-LHZ6, LHV6-LHZ6: The latter I will enter at the open today, according to MRCI it is successful in 14 of the most recent 15 years. The first one was recommended by MRCI for many years, but failed during the hog desease some years ago.

The December contract looks much weaker than the other contracts. I am bearish for the December contract this year for fundamental reasons. There is a high probability that hog supplies will exceed expectations this fall. And low cattle prices might draw some supply to this market.

Best regards, Myrrdin

Started this thread Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #5 (permalink)
 ron99 
Cleveland, OH
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: QST
Broker: QST, DeCarley Trading, Gain
Trading: Options on Futures
Posts: 3,081 since Jul 2011
Thanks Given: 980
Thanks Received: 5,785


myrrdin View Post
I currently hold the following positions in relation to seasonal trading:

NGH7-NGF7: see below,

HOZ-RBZ: According to MRCI (they use the January contract), this spread was successful in 13 of the most recent 15 years, if entered early August and exited late October. Only once there is a loss of more than $4,000, Ron's exit criterium. Looks like an interesting time to enter this spread with a rather close stop below the January or April low.

LHG7-LHZ6, LHV6-LHZ6: The latter I will enter at the open today, according to MRCI it is successful in 14 of the most recent 15 years. The first one was recommended by MRCI for many years, but failed during the hog desease some years ago.

The December contract looks much weaker than the other contracts. I am bearish for the December contract this year for fundamental reasons. There is a high probability that hog supplies will exceed expectations this fall. And low cattle prices might draw some supply to this market.

Best regards, Myrrdin

Here is how HOz-RBz performed the last 15 years from today to Oct 30. 10 out of 15 winners.


The performance of this spread from early Aug to late Oct is a very low profit per day average of $19.

The LHv6-LHz6 performed very well. I have had it on since 8/31.

Reply With Quote
  #6 (permalink)
 ron99 
Cleveland, OH
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: QST
Broker: QST, DeCarley Trading, Gain
Trading: Options on Futures
Posts: 3,081 since Jul 2011
Thanks Given: 980
Thanks Received: 5,785

Sold ESz6 today. It usually drops starting the morning of the 3rd Friday when futures contract expires (ESu6). Planning on keeping until Oct 3.

Edit Actually I just see that selling at the close on Thu is better than selling at open on Friday. Average +5.75 per quarter the last 6 quarters.

Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #7 (permalink)
 myrrdin 
Linz Austria
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TWS
Broker: Interactive Brokers
Trading: Commodities
Posts: 1,938 since Nov 2014
Thanks Given: 3,686
Thanks Received: 2,651


ron99 View Post
Here is how HOz-RBz performed the last 15 years from today to Oct 30. 10 out of 15 winners.


The performance of this spread from early Aug to late Oct is a very low profit per day average of $19.

The LHv6-LHz6 performed very well. I have had it on since 8/31.

I agree that it does not make sense to include the HOZ-RBZ in an automatic trading system. Performance is not good enough.

What I like abouot this trade:

1. The seasonal is still upwards.

2. There is a near stop, based on the chart (annual low). The risk is in the order of magnitude of $ 1500 per spread.

3. The spread has not been this low in September since 2010.

Unfortunately I did not get into the LHV-LHZ in early September. Today the price was higher.

Best regards, Myrrdin

Started this thread Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #8 (permalink)
 
dbarno's Avatar
 dbarno 
Madison, Wi
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja Trader, Trade Navigator
Trading: CL,GC, HG
Posts: 79 since Jul 2012
Thanks Given: 155
Thanks Received: 82

Have had better results using Jake Bernsteins data than MRCI. He also shows you how to use it correctly.

Reply With Quote
  #9 (permalink)
 myrrdin 
Linz Austria
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TWS
Broker: Interactive Brokers
Trading: Commodities
Posts: 1,938 since Nov 2014
Thanks Given: 3,686
Thanks Received: 2,651


dbarno View Post
Have had better results using Jake Bernsteins data than MRCI. He also shows you how to use it correctly.

MRCI also offers a consulting service. They select individual trades from their data base, and explain how to trade them in the actual year. You have to pay for this information. I do not use this service.

Best regards, Myrrdin

Started this thread Reply With Quote
  #10 (permalink)
IFO Joe
Chicago IL USA
 
Posts: 8 since Sep 2016
Thanks Given: 3
Thanks Received: 10


I've been a subscriber to MRCI for many, many years and find their info very valuable.

However, seasonal trades are never a guarantee for profits. Although a trade may have been profitable 14 of the last 15 years, this could be the year it's a loser. Also, you have to really look at the yearly stats on each trade rec they give.

For example, they may show an average profit of $1200 on a trade but the drawdown may have been $3500. Most traders I know would not hold on to a trade like that and thus, would never have profited.

As I said I do like the service but you have to use it in conjunction with your other traders tools. I use their recommendations as a starting point and then apply my own analysis to determine if I'm going to take the trade or not.

Best wishes,


Joe

Reply With Quote
Thanked by:




Last Updated on May 4, 2021


© 2024 NexusFi™, s.a., All Rights Reserved.
Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama City, Panama, Ph: +507 833-9432 (Panama and Intl), +1 888-312-3001 (USA and Canada)
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice. There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
About Us - Contact Us - Site Rules, Acceptable Use, and Terms and Conditions - Privacy Policy - Downloads - Top
no new posts