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Price is on the bearish side from the overnight session so I'll be looking for selling opportunities off the open up to 866 where my pivot is for now. Above that there's an SR zone at 878, so in between these areas is kind of a no-man's land; I don't really want to be long or short here initially. My goal is to be aggressive like I have been yet play it smart and be patient. I'd like to be able to catch all of the signals I get in real time and not miss any. Having said all of this my main focus will be price analysis, looking potential scenarios for future price and continuing to observe price bar by bar to confirm or refute my scenarios. If I do this well I'll be getting into good trades today.
I will continue to focus on YM first and monitor and trade my currency pairs just as I did yesterday. I'm all set and ready to go at this point; just waiting for the market to open. Since I have everything ready and I'm more familiar with my order entry I should be good to go today.
10:30
1 YM trade so far this morning and it was a good one. I am really pleased with my entry on this trade as well as my read of the market and my SR zone; perfect. I am displeased with my management of the trade. I was not patient enough with this one and I moved my stop down to lock in profits, which is part of my plan, but I was too quick to do so. I left around 10 points on the table on this one because of improper trade management. I had a potential re-entry on a stall but given how far price had moved, I was not interested in entering again on a simple pullback. I'm now looking either a more complex pullback to short or a break of my pivot to change my bias.
I'm also currently short GBPCHF. The trade has moved well in my favor and as a part of my plan I've moved my stop to break even. This one was also a quick runner initially but I've done better with my trade management.
11:45
Not all that pleased with the rest of my morning. I commented above, " I'm now looking either a more complex pullback to short or a break of my pivot to change my bias." Price was pulling back to this area and it was weak. This is the exact time I decided to go pee. I of coursed missed a great rejection at my pivot. I know I would have traded this and it was a quick +23 points to the target. I really need to hold the other stuff when price is close to my strike zone. I also skipped a short just a bit ago that I was stalking. This one looks a lot better in hindsight than it did in real time but I had definitely considered shorting. It was the same kind of weak pullback after the YM made a new low. It was not the first pullback either which is why I was really watching it. This is the type of trade that I should be taking.
I'll try to get it together and refocus and do a better job this afternoon.
14:00
I'm really struggling to follow my plan this afternoon with the YM. I have a couple of FX trades working right now and I'm not tinkering with them; I am long EURUSD and short GBPCHF. Both of my stops on these are moved to break even and this is according to my plan. I have OCO orders in on both so it's either they stop out at break even, hit my target or I close them out at the end of the day.
YM however has been a far different story. I know why I am messing up at this point but I don't know if I'll be able to pull through and rectify it today or not; I might just need to start fresh tomorrow.
The trade I missed in the morning, that's still bothering me. I am overall profitable today but I would have been up even more had I taken that trade. Now I'm trigger shy because I don't want to get a losing trade and wipe out a lot of my profit today. I missed a nice short trade just before 13:00, I just could not click the mouse. I stopped and thought for a bit and realized why I hesitated. I told myself that no matter what, I was going to take the next trade. I did just that, shorting a pullback to my SR zone at 13:32 - great! However, I got nervous and moved my stop to break even way before I am supposed to. I got stopped out on a pullback to my entry location. The only time I would move my exit to break even before I wait 5 candles would be when a trade runs offside and price is no longer supporting my premise. In this case, that was not happening so I needed to just wait on moving my stop to break even. This trade went on to hit my target for +36 points.
Taking away errors and mismanaged trades (not even counting the 1st one) I would have +106 points today. As it stands I have +20. That's a lot of missed opportunity. I have made a few notes about this and will try to pull together tomorrow and start off better. I suppose this points to my fragility at this stage, one small thing has really got me off kilter.
14:50
Just closed out a good EUR/USD trade. I'm pretty happy with how I picked a logical entry point and how I managed it. The trade didn't quite hit my initial target but it was still profitable.
15:10 - End of Day
I'm shutting it down a few minutes early today. A big mixed bag today really. I clearly struggled mentally on my YM trades after missing a really good one. This is something that I have struggled with in the past but it wasn't as bad today as it has been before. I at least recognized what I was doing and forced myself to enter the next trade no matter what. I messed up the management of it, but I'll take the positive away that I at least got in while making note of my management error.
My main goal was price analysis, and I did that very well. I feel that I read bias on all of the markets I was trading well today and had a good read on price action and what was going on. I recognized in several locations where price might be overextended and was patient and waited for a 2 or 3 swing pullback rather than just jump on the first little pullback I saw and this is a part of my price analysis.
In terms of trade entries, I was also really good at identifying good ones today both on YM and the FX pairs I'm trading. My management was really suspect on my YM trades but excellent on my FX trades. While I made errors today, I believe I can absorb them and learn from them. It's getting easier to identify myself doing things I should not be doing, and I'm making progress in correcting them.
I have 2 categories of YM trades today, those I took and those I skipped. Of those I took, I was +20 points. With proper trade management, I would have been +56 points. This of course will come back to bite me in the backside eventually when I take some losses. Of all of the YM trades, I was +70 points and +106 points with proper, to plan management. While I only was able to grab a fraction of these points, I am pleased that I am picking good spots and doing it real time as opposed to after the fact in hindsight. Again, there's a small bit of progress.
I was really solid on my currency pairs today. 4 trades in total, 3 break even and 1 winner. The break even's I was actually making a pip here and there so I finished the day +23 pips.
I think it was a good decision to start watching and trading some currency pairs. I may well be accelerating my learning by doing this. Just having something else to monitor real time and then study later on I think is good in terms of me getting practice reading price movement, picking out structures, seeing how the various markets react within these structures and identifying potential trades, managing them properly, etc. I also really like the micro and mini lots in FX; I can play for real with a little skin in the game but not make or lose enough to make a dent...what a great way to learn and grow.
I'll be doing my usual post market review tonight and really focusing on my commitment to following my plan.
Nice activity overnight as the YM gained a few points off yesterday's close. Bias is currently bullish going into the open but there's still time for that to change. Rate announcement at 14:00 today so I'll be sure to be flat prior to that in all trades.
I believe the expectation is to hold rates steady, but I'm very interested in this one because I'm not so sure. So far, the market has approved of Trump as we've hit milestones on the indices. I think it's well known that Trump and Yellen are not BFF's. I would not be shocked at all to see Yellen and co. raise rates to get at Trump. If there is a rate hike, I think it will be for this reason. Not that any of this matters as far as my trading is concerned...
As for the FX stuff, EURUSD is trending down and has broken through an SR area. I'm watching for a pullback to sell here. The USDCAD is not following what the EURUSD is doing at the moment. I'm pretty new watching these pairs but it seems like these two are mostly inversely correlated but not 100%. From what I see, the USDCAD is going to have a harder time moving up than the EURUSD is going to have moving down in terms of SR areas. I am watching both of these pairs but because in my mind there is at least somewhat of an inverse correlation I'm only going to trade 1 at a time. Today, at least at this point, I prefer the EURUSD short more than the USDCAD long.
GBPCHF is bullish and has broken an SR area to the upside. This zone is not the tightest so I'll give it a little more play or room to the downside given my bias. I'm keen on buying a dip here, ideally something testing and holding the .25150 level. If I see a test to this area and rejection there, I'll be a buyer to .26120ish.
AUDNZD is a mess again today. I'm bullish at this moment and my pivot is at .04100. If I see a pullback that tests this area and rejects then I will consider buying but I would have a hard time getting a good RR on a logical target. There might be upside to .04400 but that's a stretch. It looks like this market is due for a more complex pullback or period of consolidation so there might not be anything to trade here today. I would consider selling this on a break/hold below my pivot with a weak bullish attempt after.
I did my usual review last night and I didn't see anything I missed in real time yesterday. I will be continuing the process that I have been following lately again today; focus on price analysis first, identifying strength and weakness and identifying future trend direction. I will then watch closely and continue analysis to either validate or invalidate my premise. Only then will I identify potential trade locations and entries.
I will also add some positive thinking as I approach a trade entry. I work to have the expectation that the trade will be successful. I will continue to define stop and profit areas but will get into the trade telling myself that it will work. I will then conduct analysis as per my plan, but will try to do so with a positive mindset. By using this approach, I am going to try to make it easier for me to follow my plan; getting into the trades I should be and then managing them according to my plan.
10:20
Not much to speak of. I took a long on the YM that stopped out at BE. I gave it 2 tries to push higher and price would not so I moved my stop up to breakeven; this was good recognition and well managed. I initially missed the entry on this but I placed a limit order that got filled quickly, so no worries. Bias is now bearish.
GBPCHF is finding resistance around yesterday's high which isn't surprising at all. I'm still looking for a bit of a pullback here to buy and re-test and eventually break this resistance level.
EURUSD took a dive on the better than expected ISM number. Again, I need a pullback to short this. I'd be interested in a pullback to the .07500 level that stalls. Anything more shallow than this may not provide the RR I'm looking for.
12:45
Again, not too much going on at the moment. The YM has put in a nice range with good range extension but I just have not been able to work out any trades as price continued to drop. I did miss 1 good opportunity that I just didn't see at the time. I believe I was really focused on my lower timeframe chart and just missed the action on my trading timeframe chart. As it stands on the YM, my bias is technically bullish but price is stuck around an SR area so it's a little tricky. I'd prefer another leg up before I look to buy a pullback of some sort.
I did take a trade after I noticed and made note of that missed opportunity. I was not hesitant in my entry and I managed it well, so I'm pleased about that. So far, 2 trades for 2 scratches.
I was in a EURUSD trade when I began writing this but I just stopped out break even there too. I had considered buying the AUDNZD this morning but wasn't sure about the price action so I passed. That would be trade is pretty close to target at this point but the entry I was eyeing wasn't really clear so I'm okay with not taking it. Nothing on the GBPCHF. I was really looking to buy a pullback but price has just been stuck in a tight range since before the open. With it being close to 13:00 at this point I'm not going to take any additional FX trades until after the FOMC. All said so far today it's 3 trades and 3 scratches. I'm happy with how I've continued to analyze price first and look for trades second. I'm not bothered at all at the lack of activity or winners as I've been doing everything right so far.
This is the kind of time where, if I wasn't stuck at work, I'd go outside and enjoy the Florida winter sunshine; maybe take a nap under my banana trees or something.
14:30
YM looks like it's settling down a bit so I'll resume my analysis and trading there. Not much going on with the GBPCHF and the AUDNZD isn't attractive to me here. The EURUSD is still pretty wild. My inclination is to look for a short trade somewhere near the FOMC reaction high but I'll see if I can hold off. I seem to be drawn to these dangerous situations like a moth to a flame when in reality, given my experience level, I just need to stay away until things settle.
15:20
I'm calling it a day. I can't decide if I should be looking to buy or sell on the YM which really means I should be doing neither. I avoided the temptation to short the EURUSD around the 7825 level. While doing so would be working at this moment, it's not a trade I should be taking as it's not a part of my plan. If there were more time in the day I'd be interested in buying a pullback around where we are at 7700 but I don't want to hold past the NY close. I'm currently long AUDNZD and have moved up my stop to break even. Price isn't bouncing like I thought it would off of support and my pivot so I'm thinking that will also be a scratch.
I'm pleased with my performance today. While I did miss a potential entry, it was just something that happened. I don't know that I'll never not miss a potential entry here and there. I do like how I responded to this; basically the opposite of yesterday. For me, that's progress I can work with. Pretty light day in terms of trades, just 2 YM and 2 FX. I can take away the fact that I stayed focused throughout the day despite the lack of activity. This is something I've not always been able to do, so another piece of good news.
P/L wise I'm flat on YM and up half a pip so far on FX. I'll make at least a half a pip on this AUDNZD trade and maybe more, so that's good for me on a day like today. Any day I'm not losing money is a good day in my books.
I've got some review to do tonight but it will be light as I have had a lot of time today to review price when things were very slow.
End of Day Edit. 17:40
I've just reviewed the day a few times and gone through my SR zones. Once thing I had not done in some time was take a fresh look at my SR zones. It turns out that they were pretty stale. I need to put a little more time into these each night. What I've been doing is for the most part just leaving them alone unless it's obvious I should remove them. Even then, I wasn't removing them consistently when I should have been.
I'm going to start spending more time post market having a look at my zones. A few were clearly off today and would have changed a trade here or there. Other than that, I didn't see glaring errors in how I was trading what I saw today. There was one spot where it appears I was a little passive and could have entered a short, but there was no follow through and it would have been a break even scratch. I don't know exactly what I was thinking at that time as I didn't make a note of it.
Overall, not much learned from review of my actual trades. The big lesson was to continually look at my SR levels and place added emphasis on those.
Many of these have changed; I hadn't really taken a hard look at them in a while. I'll be paying more attention to these in my post market review/analysis.
Premarket
My charts are a little messed up this morning. I did a lot of work post market yesterday re-drawing a lot of my SR areas and today they are gone. There are many things I like about Tradingview but they do have issues saving charts with drawings and syncing drawings to all charts. Hopefully this will be addressed because I've got more work than normal to do this morning. The good thing is that I always write down my SR areas, both high and low so that makes re-drawing them a little faster.
Overnight the YM was interesting, down early and recovered later. Bias is currently bearish going into the open.
Looks like some good movement on EURUSD, AUDNZD and GBPCHF but I need to take a look at my SR areas on those. I'm really liking the USDCAD less and less since I'm already trading the EURUSD and it's just trading the opposite of that most of the time. I'd like to find another pair to watch that will move independently and that has a reasonable spread.
Same goals today, analyze, focus and stick to my plan.
12:00
Been super busy at work today, very hectic. I've tried to keep an eye on things but it's been difficult to impossible to focus and analyze. I have made a few trades that were made on very quick analysis/decisions. They look like good trades (I think) but it's really been so busy I have not had a chance to review. I did exit one of them 30 seconds before I really should have been based on my plan. This 30 seconds was the difference between me getting break even and me hitting the target for +20 points. It's been really difficult to focus and stay on task
15:30
End of the trading day for me as I don't care to trade the close. Wow, what a crap day. I was either early or late or on the wrong side of things all day. I was slammed at work and was doing 3-4 things at the same time all day it seemed; none of it well.
I've already gone back to have a look at my YM trades and I was doing review/analysis for most of the afternoon. I was confused several times but I traded during these times anyway. Bad idea. I rushed into a short trade when the signal was only sort of there AND it was early in the potential move. In this situation I should be more patient but I was not. I incorrectly interpreted bias which caused me to enter the wrong way for a loss AND caused me to skip a trade that was profitable.
I have not conducted a full review of the session yet but there's no doubt it was a choppy afternoon. There was a lot of activity around one of my SR zones and I just could not get a good read on what was going on. So the best thing to do at that point is place some trades :-/
With errors I was -49 points today. Having not gone through and looked at the "ideal" day scenario but seeing my errors I could have potentially been +40 points today, so that's a huge swing.
I have several takeaways from today. 1) Do not trade unless I can conduct proper and full price analysis and place focus on trading. I generally multitask and can handle 1.5 to 2 things at a time (1 being trading) but no more than that. And, when I'm looking to enter a trade, I'm locked into trading and nothing else. This didn't happen today but needs to happen moving forward. 2) If I'm unsure, stand aside until I have clarity. This would have had me watching a great deal today, and I would have been looking at some potential missed opportunities. However, I would not have been licking my wounds. So that's YM trading today, no winning trades, 4 losses and some scratches sprinkled on top.
FX trading has been better. I did get caught on the wrong side of the Pound/Franc earlier but the trade was solid, it just didn't work. I'm currently long the Pound/Franc and ~12 pips in profit with my stop just above break even. I think if we can clear some resistance at 4519 there could be a push higher which would take price to my target. I would have loved to short the Euro/USD at some point today and was really looking for a logical spot to sell but nothing came up. I did place a few limit orders to see if I could catch a good pullback to sell but price didn't cooperate with me.
I'll do my usual review tonight but I already have many lessons from today. I messed up real good but I know I did and I'll try to not repeat these same mistakes.
17:00
I just conducted my post market review of YM today. With hindsight I have a better sense of what I should have and should not have done. I was very poor on my price analysis today; probably because today was so hectic. Had I conducted proper price analysis using my SR zones, my bias and observed my pivots I would have been on the better end of many more trades. Today I put getting into trades above conducting good price analysis and that cost me. I have a better sense of the action today having gone through it slowly again so I've learned a bit here.
I have not conducted and FX analysis yet, but I did close out my Pound/Franc trade for a small profit as it's time for me to leave the office for the day.
I'm still having charting issues with Tradingview; I've spent a lot of time this morning re-drawing SR zones that should already be there. My mornings are already tight as it is and I don't need this additional task which is really a waste of time. Hopefully it will be addressed soon.
Nice NFP number has the YM moving higher this morning. Bias is bullish on the open and price is holding above my SR zone at 896. There's some good space to the next area higher at 971 so if the market can hold this area there's a nice upside target.
I should be less busy at work today which will help my trading. While yesterday was way too busy I also placed the cart before the horse, looking at trades before I really analyzed the price action. Upon review there were things I really should have seen had I been focused and sticking to my basic principles and my plan. Whatever happens today I need to put analysis first and trade identification second. I will do my best to do that and really stick to my plan today. It's been a mostly positive week and I'd like to end the week on a good note.
I will be trading FX today as well but I won't be looking at anything USD related until 10:30 or after. The Pound/Franc is right at an SR area now so there could be something cooking there but that's really it.
11:20
Grinding day moving up, not shocking I suppose given the NFP number. I was stalking a long trade just after the open as my SR zone was holding price but I just could not find anything convincing that prompted me to enter. I really was looking for a push/fake out lower followed by some sign of rejection to buy but that never came. I did consider buying as I have on the chart but I held off because I really wanted that push lower. When prices started to move up from here I placed a limit order to try to catch a pullback to that area but the bulls didn't allow that to happen. So I missed what's been really the only opportunity so far today. It's not the worst offense in my mind because it's a really difficult entry to pick out.
I am currently short GBPCHF. Price broke below an SR zone and while there was some demand after the reaction has been weak so selling was logical to me. I'm about 10 pips in profit at this point and have not yet moved by stop down to BE. If price can move below the current swing low from this morning I think there could be a nice move down to the next SR zone. I'm also stalking shorts on the AUDNZD and USDCAD but I'm going to need some pullbacks on those to get me in.
15:20
With 10 minutes to go until I stop trading I'm wrapping up early. I have no interest in trading such a narrow range and have basically kept as busy as possible doing other things today and keeping an eye on the YM and FX. Not much to see. I tried a long trade way back at 11:48 at what turned out to be the bottom of this range. I was looking for 998 to get taken out and stops to push price higher, up to or up close to my next SR area at 20005. This obviously never materialized and I scratched for break even. That's really it for the day.
For the week it's a mixed bag of sorts. I ended up taking 92% of the trades I saw or could have; last week I was at 90% so I'm doing well there. The bad part of that is that many of those were error trades and there were trades I missed that I could have taken. Yesterday there was missed opportunity as well as errors both with entry and management that cost me. And Tuesday could have/should have been a very profitable day but I squandered the opportunities. I am tracking everything and reviewing everything that I'm doing so I intend to continue to learn from these mistakes. I was much more sloppy this week than I'd like and I need to correct that part. The least I can do is trade my plan 100%. If I miss an entry because I didn't see it or make a judgement error then so be it, but trading my plan to perfection should and is my expectation.
Thursday was a real lesson that I hope to keep from now on. I really ignored my analysis and made rushed trades that were not well thought out and often against bias.
I did reasonably well with my FX trades this week. I like having a different timeframe to look at when trading. I enjoyed and felt a lot more relaxed giving these trades a lot more time to play out and just checking them now and then. I thought a little bit about expanding my trading timeframes on YM to something similar but I'll not do that for several reasons.
I'm going to do my usual review and homework this weekend and really think about how to stay on track with my plan. I am not sure if I made progress or not this week, but it's at least 1 more week of experience that I have and 1 more week's worth of information to consider and study. I do hope to execute at a higher level next week.
Premarket bias is bearish. Looks like there was a retest of the 20010 area overnight that was rejected. Possible downside to 19896, 19838 and 19770. If there is a good test of one of these levels and there is demand there, then new ATH's are possible as the general trend is up.
My goals today are to focus on price analysis then look for trade entries. I did a lot of studying over the weekend and I hope that helps today.
End of Day
Pretty crap day I must say. Nothing worth posting in terms of charts. I tried quite a few trades today but literally nothing would work, it was just way too choppy where I was looking to trade. I did do well getting into and out of trades properly and I had a good read on price all day. It figures that the one day I'm doing everything well in terms of reading price and really trading my plan extremely well I don't get rewarded. I'm sure that the next time I miss a bunch of trades will be the day I could have done great. I guess I just keep at it and see what happens.
Having gone back through the day there are a couple of spots I might have been able to get into but they were not clear at the time. I did take 1 trade that looks a little sketchy now but I won't go so far as to call it an error. From about 11:00 on I was bearish and I tried selling several areas that almost worked but there was just too much demand that kept pushing price up. Many times it looked like we were just about to crack and test the lows off the open but it just wouldn't happen. I ended today 7 trades for -11 points.
Between today, Friday and Thursday I've had a pretty bad run of days and I'm pretty frustrated right now. I did well to stay calm and balanced while I was trading and didn't do anything dumb at least; but looking back on it now I'm getting pretty annoyed.
I'll review more tonight and just move on to the next day and the next trade. Perhaps at some point this week all of the stars will line up for me...that would be really nice.
Very bullish off of the European open and the YM is inching closer to new all time highs. I am definitely bullish off the open with my pivot at 20,004. If we do move lower initially off the open I'll be looking first for SR at 20,014 to hold then my pivot. We may need to move lower to get some fuel to move up past the ATH.
I'm hopeful for some 2 way trading today with a little follow through but I'm not optimistic. We could well get locked into a slow moving range between ~20,010 and ~20,070. If the YM can push below 20,000 maybe there could be some nice downside but it does not seem like we will move up quickly; only grinding without many good pullbacks to buy.
I've done pretty well the last few days in terms of conducting my price analysis first and seeking trade opportunities only after I have a good feel for price, what it's doing and then identifying probable future direction. I have been very good about getting into trades without hesitation. I aim to do more of that today, just continue following my plan and making good decisions.
11:20
Man, not great again today. I'm missing entries and then taking ones that I should not be. I'm pretty out of sorts and in and out in terms of my focus today. I just missed another good entry that is just now hitting target so that's a missed +20 points. I realize it's a tight range in here right now but that's no excuse for missing a pretty obvious opportunity.
I'm going to do something else for a while then try to come back after lunch and start the day over because I'm very displeased with myself at this point.
13:00
It was my intention to just leave for a bit but before I did I got back to my desk after walking around for a while and noticed price rejecting off an extended pullback not long after the YM made a new LOD. This is what I was looking for once the YM made the new LOD, and while I missed the initial trade entry I decided to place a limit order to see if I could catch it if price bounced a little. It did and I was lucky to get into the trade and manage it pretty well for a nice winner...FINALLY. I'm very happy that I did everything I am supposed to do on this one and didn't cut the good trade short too early.
15:00
The market is kind of hung up here so I have been going back over the action from today and really analyzing price, possible entries and that. In doing so I realized that I've been neglecting something that I was doing previously that is hurting me now. I had been actually drawing lines on one of my charts showing the moves up and down. Doing so both gave me a good visual on the strength and weakness of the overall moves and forced me to pay attention to such things. Lately I've been doing candle by candle analysis which is also important but I've been missing the forest through the trees. I can't believe I just now realized this. I made a conscious decision to stop drawing and measuring the moves because I felt that I got it and didn't need to continue. I realized this afternoon that my decision to stop was premature. I am going to go back to drawing and measuring the moves up and down and really study and consider them. Doing this analysis would have put me in better positions to understand what was happening, put me in a trade that I missed and helped me pick a logical target for that trade. I'm not at the level yet where I can just assume my brain is processing these things, I need to make a conscious and deliberate effort to pay attention to this and take the information into consideration.
I'm likely finished trading for the day at this point. I'm pleased with the 1 trade that I caught. I am very happy that it was profitable of course and I'm really happy with my entry and management of the trade. I'm also very glad that I just had that little moment of clarity. I feel that I've had a pretty solid read on what the YM has been doing and getting into good positions to be on the right side of things. When I start the practice of drawing a line over each move, measuring them and considering what this means given the context of the day my read should certainly improve and this will definitely improve my entries and targets.
I'm also going to cool it on the FX stuff for now. I like the idea of finding something else to trade using a longer timeframe, and FX would offer a low risk way to do this in terms of actual dollars by using micro lots. But it seems that I am possibly doing myself a disservice in terms of my YM analysis at the same time. What if I spent the time that I am looking at FX analyzing the YM price action, would that possibly improve my performance? I think the answer is yes. I'd love to buy a Ferrari but right now I can't even afford a bike from Goodwill. I should probably focus on 1 thing until I can at least afford that bike from Goodwill and then take it from there.
Anyway...I'm finishing the day +40 points which almost erases most of my errors from this week and last week. I'll do review tonight and I'll be looking not just candle to candle but overall move to move. I was doing this consistently before and then just got off track. Tomorrow I probably won't be trading at all as I have to take one of my daughters to the Orthodontist and then have some meetings at work at 13:00. I might be settled in by 14:00 or so and if I'm in a good spot then I might see about trading then but I won't push it...lesson learned doing that last Thursday.
I got to work a lot earlier than I thought so I have some time to watch/trade. The premarket bias was bearish and that's continued here after the open, but the opening range was very low; only 40 points so far. The opening 40-minute range is definitely on the lower end of what is usual. It looks as thought I have not missed anything so far. I'm going to do some analysis and watch for a bit and then if something comes up I'll trade it but I don't want to rush into something just because and end up making a mistake.
12:00
I wasn't tired last night so I went back and did a lot of looking, etc on the ES using higher time frames. The thing I like about the YM is the granularity of price. Using a 1 or 2 minute lower time frame for entries on the ES, there are a lot of 2 and 3 tick candles which I can't really do anything with. So I decided to extend the time frame to give the candles more time to develop so I'd have more information.
I decided to put it on a chart today and look at it. I got what I thought was a good read on what price was doing and decided to go ahead and trade it. I got a nice entry and picked a good target.
I was stalking a long on the YM just now as price was moving lower to test an SR zone I have marked. Though price was moving lower, it was certainly not doing so with strength - and my bias is bullish. My pivot is also in the SR zone so there were a few reasons to suspect a reversal at that area (around 985). As price tested there was no follow through so I was setting up for a long entry but never really got a good reversal signal to pounce on. Price has pulled away from that area, up past 20000 but I don't consider it a missed opportunity because there was not enough for me to actually place an order.
EDIT: I now see where I could have seen some price rejection around 985 no YM. Maybe not the best looking thing but considering the context it was enough evidence to place a trade. The trade would have just stopped out at break even, so maybe no harm there but there was opportunity.
At this point it certainly seems like we could be in for a chop fest until 14:00 or later. Both the ES and YM are caught between SR zones and price is having a hard time even reaching the edges. That given and adding in the time of the day and it may be dull here for a bit.
I'll consider something at one of the SR zone edges but I won't be trading elsewhere for now.
End of Day (15:20)
I'm calling it a day here. It's funny that earlier I typed that the ES and YM would probably be locked in a tight range for a while and just after that YM tested SR lower as well as my pivot area...figures.
I did take a long position on that test lower and held it for almost 3 hours before price came back to my entry and I scratched it for break even. During that time there was also a pretty clear short on the ES at an upper area of SR and even though my bias was bullish, price was failing at this level so I took a short on the ES while long on the YM. The ES short also scratched at break even but it was offside most of the time. Being short one and long the other was pretty weird. I don't know that it was the worst idea as I'm trading different time frames between the two but it was still odd. As I move forward doing this (or if I move forward) I'll probably avoid doing that again.
It was a very bland day for me in terms of trading. I was a little busy with other stuff so it was actually a good day for bland. I'll need to do some review but I have been going back and looking here and there and I really don't see much in the way of trade opportunities other than the ones I took (and the 1 I missed).
I'm enjoying the exploring and tinkering with various markets and time frames. I don't know what I'll settle on or if I will. I do like trading price action and structures and I suppose that can be applied almost universally, so if I'm looking at this and that I'm just getting more exposure and screen time; perhaps that will reinforce things and hasten my development to whatever the next level is.
P/L wise I finished flat on YM and +2.25 points on ES. The little winner added to my YM winner yesterday has completely reversed all of my losses up to this point. All of the mismanaged trades and all of the erroneous have been wiped out and I'm in the black by a little. While I'm not measuring myself based on my P/L I do see the difference between my actual performance and possible performance and while I'll always be behind my possible performance I've at least closed the gap recently. That and digging myself out of the little hole I was in is pleasing because I've done it by better (though not perfect) execution of my plan. This reinforces that I can make this work if I get very good at executing my plan.
I'll probably get my post market review done before I leave work today so I'll take the opportunity tonight to study charts and review older material. I will continue to trade both YM and ES for the rest of the week with the ES being a longer time frame and see how I like that. I thought I would just stick to watching and trading YM but something in me isn't happy with just that.
Bias is currently bullish heading into the open with my pivot at 20,001. YM is currently chopping around in an SR zone I have marked. The premarket rally stopped at 20,046 and I don't see anything significant about that particular number or level. If there is strength in the market today we will surely see 20,074 - 20,086 tested at some point. After a tight day yesterday I'm looking forward to a some volatility and some two way action today - hopefully.
Same deal as always in terms of what I'm going to try to do...analysis first and foremost, both candle to candle and move to move. Ongoing analysis will lead to trade identification but there will be no trade identification without proper price analysis.
I've made a bit of progress this week; it's not been perfect but it's been progress. I aim to keep that going today.
10:20
Kind of a dud open with a paltry range. Maybe that's not surprising given where price is. I would like to be long somewhere but there's been no good spot to buy for me since I'm generally looking for a weak pullback to buy and not buying breakouts of ranges. It could be another grinding day or maybe something odd will happen, who knows. I won't be making many if any trades if we get a day of grinding activity and I won't be shorting ES up here as I don't have a reference point from which to work. I also can't imagine shorting YM at the next SR zone unless we have an impulse move to that level or if there's a 1-2-3 type top with a good sized pullback in between. I am definitely not keen on shorting into this slow march upward.
11:35
Nothing for me to do today outside of watch history being made with ATH's on ES and YM. I don't want to trade without a reference point and I don't have one higher. While I don't mind buying a nice pullback for a re-test or break of the HOD there just has not been a pull back that's been deep enough for me to buy. With this being more of a march than a grind I'm not going near a short.
14:50
I need to leave work early today...Dad's taxi duty. I missed a potential long on the YM just before 13:00 when there was a pullback to my pivot; I had tuned out. The long would have been at 130 and it would be a hold to close type of trade. The management of that trade would at this point be simple, stop at break even - either stop out or sell around the close. At the moment I'd be up 16 points had I caught the entry.
That's essentially it for the day. No progress in terms of development and no regression either - no lessons to take from the day aside from maybe knowing enough to not try to short at some point along the way (but I already knew that).
Continued strength overnight with both ES and YM making new all time highs. Bias is bullish heading into the open though that could of course change. There is a target overhead and a frame of reference for a possible short if there is weakness at the ONH. I won't rule out a short at this level but I won't be shorting above it.
Same goal today as usual; really focus on analysis and don't look for potential trades until I'm clear on what I am seeing.
10:20
Definitely a different day so far this morning. While the bulls could wake up at any time we seem due for some consolidation at this point and so far that's easy to see in the initial move higher off the open.
I did have a spot to short the YM but I could not make the RR work so I skipped the trade as per my plan. IF I'd taken it anyway I would have scratched it at break even. Even if it would have been a big winner, skipping the trade was the correct thing to do. I'm still waiting for something testing higher or a move lower that tests my pivot/SR zone before I consider entering a trade; I've no interested in playing around in the middle of these SR zones.
10:45
So here I am thinking and typing that the bulls are not interested and we could see consolidation and we get another hard push for new highs. I swear, it seems like every time I think something (and write it) the exact opposite happens. It's good I don't trade what I think, I'd have been broke a long, long time ago.
11:45
YM feels a little heavy here but I'm not interested in shorting at this time, maybe later if things line up correctly. I did take a long entry that didn't work out; stopped out for -11 YM points. It was not a great looking entry but it was good enough to take, it just didn't work out. I was debating on cutting it early for a smaller loss but there was some demand a little below my entry so I decided not to. Overall I'm pleased with the trade at this point; I'll see if I the same opinion after my post market review.
13:00
66 point range on YM today and 6.75 point range on ES. Nice move up over the last 90 minutes (within the context of the day) but no where that I can see to take a long position.
End of Day
The afternoon was a little more active than I would have imagined with 3 trade possibilities. I did get sucked into a short after 15:00 that stopped me out for -13 but I still think it was a good idea; just didn't work out. I was wrapping up the day when I saw some activity on the YM that I liked so I started paying attention and stalking. I ended up shorting again at 20,227 at 15:44 - later than I normally trade. The entry was too good to pass up though. I saw a bearish bias at that moment and the short came not long after a bullish move up to, and stopping right at my pivot. There was no continuation at all, just some stalling. I thought that if there was real strength in the move, price move move and hold above the pivot area, but it could not. After a few tests I picked an area to short and got in. Price moved down pretty quickly after my entry so I moved my stop to break even; I did not want price to rebound back to my entry point at all. I figured there were lots of longs in this area and that could fuel a fast move down into the close. Price did test lower a few times but the bulls defended...just not enough supply to overcome them. This one ended up being +7 points on an exit at the cash close. I think I was definitely onto something, it just didn't transpire this time.
I'm finishing up for the week in both YM and ES. I am getting much better at taking the signals that I see without hesitation, and my management of trades this week has been pretty good. I did miss entries at times this week but that's a skill problem, not a psychology problem. The misreads and missed entries are trending down and I'm working a lot off hours reviewing and trying to get things to stick in my brain.
It's a little odd I suppose, but I've not really paid attention to my psychological checklist for some time; maybe a couple of weeks. At the same time I've been getting much more consistent in entering trades I should be. While I missed a few valid signals this week I could have taken, these were because I wasn't paying attention (but could have been) and not because I hesitated. It's possible that the psychology I really needed at this point was confidence in what I was doing and seeing. The more I see things working the better I feel about taking the signals. And probably just as important, the more I understand why these things are working, the more confident I am that I'm seeing and analyzing well. I'm not following some random combination of indicators and waiting for them to just line up, I'm actively watching and analyzing to determine where the strength and weakness is in the market, who is in control and ultimately, who is getting or might be getting hurt. No indicators, not even a moving average - just price and support/resistance areas. I've never traded so naked before and I've also never felt so in control of what I was doing before...feels really good.
I'll do a bit of studying over the weekend looking back at this week and prior weeks to re-analyze things and see if I have a different interpretation of things. And maybe I'll pray to the market gods for a little more volatility next week.
YM and ES have reached new ATH's in premarket and bias is bullish. Again I have no solid reference point above here so today may be another quiet day in terms of trading for me. If I get a break of bias, bearish strength and a weak bullish pullback somewhere, or if a clear sideways trend develops I would consider a short - outside of that it would just be looking for a weak bearish pullback to buy. Last week those weak bearish pullbacks were hard to come by as most/all of the pullbacks were very shallow and did not provide a good RR.
Same goals today as usual, analyze first, determine sentiment, strength and weakness and only then look for trades.
10:45
Currently long YM. After a nice bullish move off the open there was a good pullback, deep enough to provide a good RR. The 9:32 candle provided some information that looked a lot like sellers between 305 and 310. As the market moved past this area those people would be trapped. I marked this as an area of interest if price were to pullback to this zone; I'd expect there to be some buying and price to hold. This is basically what happened on the pullback and I was stalking. There was a good rejection of this area so I bought. I'm currently holding long and moving my stop up to trail pullbacks - currently at 324. Hopefully me typing this does not cause price to come and stop me out in the next couple of minutes.
11:30
Ended up stopping out for +18 points on that trade. Maybe I moved my stop up too aggressively, the area I picked was not an area of strong rejection on the initial pullback so maybe I could have seen it being retested (which it did - and held). I suppose this is where it is challenging trading only 1 contract, I have to pick 1 spot and deal with it rather than scaling out or having a couple of points where I'd trail a stop.
I'm still pleased overall with this trade. I did manage it well at least up to the point where I moved the stop up for the final time, and even then I don't think it was an outright error. I'm most pleased with the ease with which I entered the trade and how I read the situation.
15:30 - End of Day
I had a possible entry earlier in the day, just after 12:00. I was doing some work stuff and though I saw it developing in an area of interest I just wasn't following it closely enough. I'm counting this one as a miss because I could have/should have changed my focus - there was not anything pressing with what I was doing at work.
That one could have been managed several ways, and it brings up an interesting dilemma on days like today. It was fairly obvious not long after the open that it was likely going to be another trend up day with some sort of grind, just like it has been lately. So, once I find an area to buy do I set a reasonable target higher or just hold and trail a stop, and should the stop be loose or tight? I'm sure there's no correct answer because the market is not a one size fits all kind of a thing and any "correct" answer would be more like "it depends", and even then it's just a guess.
Overall I'm happy with today. I found a really good entry in the morning and perhaps applied too tight of a trailing stop. But then next time if I have a similar situation and apply a loose stop it will probably get hit and I'll have left points on the table. I made a decision at the time based on what the chart was telling me and not out of emotion. Perhaps my inexperience led me to my decision, and with more experience I'd have made a better decision that would have resulted in a better profit. It's something I'll pay attention to going forward but I won't kick myself for making the decision that I did.
I'm a little sore about not paying enough attention just after noon and gotten into that second trade; that continues to be an area I need to focus on. It was a valid entry but not as obvious as the first one that I took. Nevertheless it is something I need to correct.
I could also stand to pay a little more attention to the ES as there's something to be gained by watching both. I'll work on that tomorrow.
P/L wise today was a small profit, so that's good.
