TraderGriz 

Technically the GCG trade looks good to me. In fact I'm holding some GCV puts myself. What i have a hard time with is how can one gather sound fundamentals on metals? Well currency's are very similar in that respect however I have recently done well with the pound an the euro. I am entertaining the thought of selling some more puts in the sept contract.

I rarely sell optoins in the metals or the currencies.

Regarding fundamentals, I follow the "Wellenreiter", an excellent newsletter in German language on stocks indices, currencies, financials and metals.

COT data look neutral to slightly bearish.

Best regards, Myrrdin

manuel999 

Here is another interesting podcast from Macrovoices concerning CL (2 prts) Podcast Listing They expect lower prices this and next years. After that they expect much higher prices, due to less exploration and the current wells declining. They also discuss that Saudi seem to actively work on backwardation, to hurt the US shale industry. That would make it possible to invest in CL futures or calls 3 years or more out. (I do not see a way for me to do this).

Amazing that since everybody started talking about backwardation the market has done nothing but go straight down and significantly deepen it's contango.

Since the podcast was published, Aug18 CL has dropped $6.07 from $48.60 to $42.53 while Dec25 crude has rallied $0.43 from $54.02 to $54.45 and in reality you couldn't even buy it there, as I think z22-z25 settle is probably 30c to low. So despite a market sell off, the chance of buying the back of the curve cheaply has gotten worse!

John Kemps latest piece is Oil market flashes warning about stock levels in 2018 which includes this chart of Dec17-Dec18 Brent Spread...

The small bounce last week on CT let me to sell CTZ7 DEC 06 C 85 calls.
Reasons:
- seasonality calls for a down move
- the chart is quite bearish
- the Commercial in the CoT are reducing their shorts, which would point to further down momentum

In the weekly chart CT seems to be right at support, so I probably should have waited a bit.
Lets hope the weather holds.

manuel999 

The small bounce last week on CT let me to sell CTZ7 DEC 06 C 85 calls. Reasons: - seasonality calls for a down move - the chart is quite bearish - the Commercial in the CoT are reducing their shorts, which would point to further down momentum In the weekly chart CT seems to be right at support, so I probably should have waited a bit. Lets hope the weather holds.

I am still waiting for a bounce above 70, after I had taken profit at a value of the CTZ future of approx. 68.

Good luck !

Best regards, Myrrdin

manuel999 

The small bounce last week on CT let me to sell CTZ7 DEC 06 C 85 calls. Reasons: - seasonality calls for a down move - the chart is quite bearish - the Commercial in the CoT are reducing their shorts, which would point to further down momentum In the weekly chart CT seems to be right at support, so I probably should have waited a bit. Lets hope the weather holds.

"The commercial in the CoT are reducing their shorts, which would point to further down momentum". Can you explain your reasoning please

Thanks
BOB

rajab 

"The commercial in the CoT are reducing their shorts, which would point to further down momentum". Can you explain your reasoning please Thanks BOB

I am just extrapolating from the past: Coms( Producers) sell into rising prices.
I assume the producers know better than anyone.

Here is the chart i am looking at:
Cot Daten für Baumwolle - Commitment of Traders für Baumwolle

manuel999 

I am just extrapolating from the past: Coms( Producers) sell into rising prices. I assume the producers know better than anyone. Here is the chart i am looking at: Cot Daten für Baumwolle - Commitment of Traders für Baumwolle

So if the producer(commercials) are less short, they must buy back their short position which could ultimatly push the price up. I am still trying to figure out how to utilize the CoT data.

Thoughts or comments? please.
Bob

rajab 

So if the producer(commercials) are less short, they must buy back their short position which could ultimatly push the price up. I am still trying to figure out how to utilize the CoT data. Thoughts or comments? please. Bob

If a producer is short there is no need for him to buy back the position. He can deliver the respective commodity.

Best regards, Myrrdin

I have no insight into the Ct market so I am just speculating:
When prices fall, the enduser of CT (manufacturers) are taking advantage of the low prices and are buying more, since it is fairly easy to store and they know what they will need in the next months.
When prices go up they can use their stored CT for a while an will buy less.

The commercials are both producers and endusers, and they not always have the same goals.
What I assume in the CoT data: they are the people with most knowledge of the CT market.

manuel999 

I have no insight into the Ct market so I am just speculating: When prices fall, the enduser of CT (manufacturers) are taking advantage of the low prices and are buying more, since it is fairly easy to store and they know what they will need in the next months. When prices go up they can use their stored CT for a while an will buy less. The commercials are both producers and endusers, and they not always have the same goals. What I assume in the CoT data: they are the people with most knowledge of the CT market.

If you are interested in information on COT data there are some good books to read:

Carley Garner: "Higher Probability Commodity Trading" includes some basics, and generally is an excellent book for beginners.

Floyd Upperman's book - I forgot the title, but you will find it easily via Google - describes the details of COT.

Best regards, Myrrdin