papa15 

Bluemele I have been following the IB method since mid June or so. Originally Jeff used 7 or 8 tick targets for his first contract, and then 12-16 for the second. Other folks tried to optimize the size for the second contract and some suggested 20-24 ticks if my memory serves me well. I, on the other hand, currently trade only 1 contract. For a long time, I set my first target at 7-8 and used a stop from 14-20 ticks. The success rate has been high enough to allow such a bad R:R, but I kept noticing the moves would usually go further. So I played with using 1/2 the range of the IB as the first target (taking off 2 ticks for entry and exit). That has had good success. I notice that if the move is early in the day and headed towards yesterday's close, there is a good chance of going for a larger target. I am using a 512 tick chart and watching that now. If I build up a good data base to support it, I will modify my first target in specific cases, but I need screen time. I do have NinjaTrader, but my skills at backtesting are practically nil. My intention is once I have built the equity up sufficiently, I will go to 2 contracts and use expanded targets. If successful, then go to 3, and so on. The IB has been very successful on CL to date using the 15 min chart. I briefly looked at 6B using the method, but was not as impressed. Others looked at ES and I think came to the same conclusion. I decided just to stick to one instrument for now.

Good info.

I wonder if there is a way to filter only good long IB moves. Like you said, headed towards filling the GAP of yesterdays close etc...

I am very cautious on poor RR scenarios as it seems that conditions can change and what worked yesterday has no clearance today.

bluemele 

Good info. I wonder if there is a way to filter only good long IB moves. Like you said, headed towards filling the GAP of yesterdays close etc... I am very cautious on poor RR scenarios as it seems that conditions can change and what worked yesterday has no clearance today.

bluemele
There is a NT indicator in the elite downloads called picky IBs. It uses several filters to chose between good and bad IBs. I don't use NT in my trading, so I don't use the indicator. I filter manually.
Papa15

I must make a confession. I knew today was a busy news day, with the most important being the GDP release at 0830. I watched that on CNBC, but after that I started looking at NT on my laptop and forgot about the rest of the releases.

Anyway, the first inside bar formed at 10am. Until that point the market had been going down. This bar formed just after the morning low (until that point) had been put in. Yesterday's low was 81.50 and today's S1 was 81.40. All the candles near the lows had real bodies above those values, so when the inside bar formed, I sort of expected the follow on bar to break above. The inside bar was 29 ticks in length, with its high at 81.67. The expected target was therefore 81.81. I put the profit target at 81.80 with entry at 81.68. I was filled at 10:04 and out at 10:05. There was minimal heat.

The next inside bar formed at 10:30. This bar was 24 ticks in length with a low at 81.68. I was not biased on direction of the breakout. I could easily see a case for a continuation higher, but could just as easily make one for price to drop again. I put a buy stop above and a sell stop below this candle. I was filled on the short at 10:32. My profit target was 81.57. Price action was sloppy at best, chopping around from a low of 81.66 to a high of 81.80 for several minutes. Based on past experience, when price action behaves this way, the probability for success is diminished, so I started raising my profit target. At 10:43, I was filled at 81.65 for 2 ticks profit. Price action continued being sloppy, going back as high as 81.80 and down to 81.57 (a brief touch) before it finally passed through 81.57 at 11:15. Had I stayed in, in this case I would have made the full original profit target, but in my opinion that was not the prudent thing to do. As I write the market is currently at 81.50 but it just as easily could have gone the other way.

I am thankful for today's results. No regrets at all on the revised second trade.

Done for the day and the week. I know this will sound silly to some, but I am grateful for Tuesday and Wednesday's performance. It took those days to drill into me to leave the opening alone. Had they not occurred, I would have continued attempting opening move trades, and today would most likely have been a losing day. Thank you again to all who responded on Tuesday and Wednesday. You certainly helped me. Hopefully, I will be able to pay it forward.

papa15 

bluemele There is a NT indicator in the elite downloads called picky IBs. It uses several filters to chose between good and bad IBs. I don't use NT in my trading, so I don't use the indicator. I filter manually. Papa15

Great, thanks, will check it out. I downloaded a few, but not quite agreeing with what the IB is or they are using several filters on the google search downloads etc..

Someone lit a rocket under CL this morning, whoa.....

The first inside bar formed at 9:45 but there was a news release at 10am, so I passed on this bar. Good thing. I would have entered short only to watch the market turn around and run up 25 ticks prior to the news release, drop but not enough to hit the profit target and then go back up to 83.78. The high of the inside bar was 83.80, and technically was not hit, but I would not have wanted to take that much heat. The no trading around news rule is a good one.

After the news release, the market was up and down, but an inside bar formed at 10:15. This bar was 34 ticks in length, with a low at 83.44. The market was up big, but BANK was negative. I had been watching it and it had not made a consistent move towards positive territory. Usually, the market does not go anywhere without the banks, and with the major up move (we were above R2 on CL), I sort of leaned on a pullback. My entry at 83.43 was filled at 10:20. I set the profit target at 10 ticks instead of 17 because I had seen the market drop down into the 82.40's and then spurt back up a couple of times already, and also because last week's high was 83.28 and I figured there would be some support/hesitation at that area. Anyway, almost exactly one minute after entering, my profit target was hit.. The market did jitter about a bit but then dropped enough to have given the full 17 tick profit target without much heat.

Watched until no more inside bars by 11:45 and so quit for the day.

With the beginning of the FOMC meeting and the election, I expected today's trading to be choppy, and so far it has been. I was leery of trading today but decided to move ahead if a setup appeared. The first inside bar was at 10:30. The high was 83.92 and low at 83.70. I put stop entries above and below, and the buy stop was filled at 10:32. Almost immediately price started chopping around. It dropped almost to the lower stop but then came back up. It continued that way for 20-some minutes. It only touched briefly the entry point at 83.93 and then it fell and hit the stop. I entered short there but price chopped around a bit, so I reduced that profit target and got out with a minimal gain. Overall down $210 for the day.

I am done for the day and will not trade tomorrow as the oil inventory report is out at 10:30 and the FOMC announcement is tomorrow afternoon. Most likely the market will chop until then. Also, I am supposed to baby sit by myself tomorrow and don't want to trade while distracted.

Don't you wish everything worked as it is supposed to all the time? Well, it doesn't and you just learn to roll with the punches.

The market seemed to love the fact that more paper dollars are going into circulation, making each dollar worth less and less....commodity prices going up is certainly to be expected, but the rest of the market.....I am not sure I understand why they would go up, but it is, what it is and my job is to just trade what I see...

The first inside bar today occurred at 10:45. The high was 86.44 and the low was 86.28. I put buy and sell stops one tick beyond those values since I had no idea which way the market was going to go. The bar was 16 ticks, so my half bar range target was 8 ticks. I expected the price to go at least to 86.19 or to 86.52. Here is where I made my first mistake. Normally, I set my profit target one tick shy of that expected target, but I forgot to do that this time. Price dropped rapidly through the low of the inside bar, and I suffered a 1 tick slippage on the entry. The ToS DOM then adjusted my profit target by 1 tick also. My second mistake was in not adjusting the target back above the expected target. As it played out, price touched 86.19 (if my profit target had been there per my first mistake, there is no assurance it would have been filled; had the target been where it was supposed to be, ie 86.20, it would have been filled). Anyway, the market just stopped there and then worked its way back up towards the stop. It did come back some, but never to the entry price, and about 20 minutes later I was stopped out. Also, during the trade, the charts just froze and were that way for about the last 10 minutes of the trade. The DOM did not freeze. Fortunately, I was watching NinjaTrader on my laptop and it did not freeze, so I was actually managing the trade off the laptop. This is the first time in over 7 months of using ToS to trade futures that I have had a freeze like this, but it still is a concern.

I thought I was through trading for the day, but I left ToS running as I was trying to log onto futures.io (formerly BMT) to update this journal, but I could not get on. I updated my the trades in my personal trading journal. At 11:45, another inside bar formed, nearly identical to the previous one (high 86.44, low 86.27). I set up another trade, was filled and profit target quickly hit. Since my profit targets are less than the stops, this at least removes some of the sting from the previous trade.

The gap on the 15 min chart shows the time ToS was frozen.

Was not sure I would be able to trade today since we have some house guests, but I was watching the unemployment report and everyone was still sleeping, so I took advantage of the situation. There was an inside bar between 8:45 and 9 am. I put in a sell stop below it, was filled and profit target hit quickly. The market pushed down to yesterday's close and then went up and turned back down. I put a second sell stop beneath the previous swing low (using the 512 tick chart), was filled and profit target hit. The market pushed on down below the 30 min opening range; this was part of the impetus I used to take this trade. I know that last trade is not an inside bar trade but it is a valid setup I have used in the past.

I decided 2 successful trades is enough for today and this week. Have a good weekend everyone.

Nice job!!! I had a trade this morning at 7:30 EST and ended with a +10 -7. Stayed in the trade too long for 45 minutes. I need to make a rule for time in a trade. But it looked very strong to me so I stayed in. Oh well, I'm looking for my next trade. Have a great weekend.

Ryan

itrade2win 

Nice job!!! I had a trade this morning at 7:30 EST and ended with a +10 -7. Stayed in the trade too long for 45 minutes. I need to make a rule for time in a trade. But it looked very strong to me so I stayed in. Oh well, I'm looking for my next trade. Have a great weekend. Ryan

Ryan
I don't have a hard fast rule on time in a trade, but my experience has been if a trade doesn't go my way within 5 minutes or so, I am probably headed for a loss....a time limit might be a good idea....will need to watch that over the next many trades and see if I can develop some empirical data to help.....thanks
Papa15