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The CL Crude-analysis Thread


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The CL Crude-analysis Thread

  #2581 (permalink)
 
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 SMCJB 
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CRUDE OIL MARGINS EFFECTIVE 7TH OCTOBER

Maintenance margin as follows (Initial Margins, ie non-member rates will be 110% of these)
Tier 1 / Nov22 decreasing from $8450 to $7500 -$950
Tier 2 / Dec22 decreasing from $7900 to $7300, -$600
...
Tier 8 / Jun23 decreasing from $6600 to $6100, -$500
...
Tier 14 / Dec23 decreasing from $5550 to $5000, -$550

https://www.cmegroup.com/notices/clearing/2022/10/Chadv22-388.html

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  #2582 (permalink)
 
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 SMCJB 
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Heavy crude discount blows out to more than $30 a barrel

https://boereport.com/2022/10/11/heavy-crude-discount-blows-out-to-more-than-30-a-barrel/

Was trading about $10 under 6 months ago

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  #2583 (permalink)
 
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 SMCJB 
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Two months to the day since the last one...

CRUDE OIL MARGINS EFFECTIVE 7TH DECEMBER

Maintenance margin as follows (Initial Margins, ie non-member rates will be 110% of these)
Tier 1 / Jan23 decreasing from $7500 to $7000 -$500
Tier 2 / Feb23 decreasing from $7300 to $6800, -$500
...
Tier 6 / Jun23 decreasing from $6500 to $6000, -$500
...
Tier 12 / Dec23 decreasing from $5300 to $5100, -$200

https://www.cmegroup.com/notices/clearing/2022/12/Chadv22-463.html

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  #2584 (permalink)
 
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 blackgrey45 
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Started trading crude again after a 3 month break. The price of a barrel of oil is so much more easy to think about than the quarters of points with the ES. Oil is much more thin and whippy than other markets which I enjoy. Very exciting to be back in crude. For now I am trading the micro crude contract. I want to get acclimated to the price movements and risk management before I jump into CL.

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  #2585 (permalink)
bob666s
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blackgrey45 View Post
Started trading crude again after a 3 month break. The price of a barrel of oil is so much more easy to think about than the quarters of points with the ES. Oil is much more thin and whippy than other markets which I enjoy. Very exciting to be back in crude. For now I am trading the micro crude contract. I want to get acclimated to the price movements and risk management before I jump into CL.

Welcome back to the jungle, haha. All the best rest of 22!

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  #2586 (permalink)
bob666s
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Implied fair value estimated from a basket of gasoline, ULSD, and light/heavy/sweet/sour prices. Currently suggests somewhere about $75.

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  #2587 (permalink)
bob666s
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shorts are looking relatively thin.

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  #2588 (permalink)
 
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 SMCJB 
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Interesting charts @bob666s but without some explanation and/or background they are a little meaningless

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  #2589 (permalink)
bob666s
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Interesting charts @bob666s but without some explanation and/or background they are a little meaningless

Yeah that makes sense, I'll try to add bits of explanations.

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  #2590 (permalink)
 
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 SMCJB 
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Been traveling so this is now a week old, but for the record

CRUDE OIL MARGINS EFFECTIVE 10TH FEBRUARY

Maintenance margin as follows (Initial Margins, ie non-member rates will be 110% of these)
Tier 1 / Mar23 decreasing from $7000 to $6600 -$400
Tier 2 / Apr23 decreasing from $6800 to $6500, -$300
...
Tier 10 / Dec23 decreasing from $5400 to $4800, -$300
...
Tier 22 / Dec24 decreasing from $4100 to $3900, -$200

https://www.cmegroup.com/notices/clearing/2023/02/Chadv23-039.html

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