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Trade 1, GC: Total Reasonable Movement, -10t, +16t. Exited at +9t. Held for almost an hour. Thought it had a chance to resume the 7:00 news spike for good gains.
Marker performance was not very good. The markets were hard to read. 9 real time markers, plus the live trade. Results: 1 winner, 4 losers, 5 BE
Objectives recap:
-Write out goals, objectives and affirmations: accomplished
-Take minimum of 2 live trades. Only took 1 live trade. Now 3 behind weekly goal of 10.
-Jump on trends early: Failed to get on board ZN. Couldn’t find a reasonable entry on NQ.
-TL BO failures: stayed aware. Getting more automatic
-OS retests: identified a couple in real time. Getting more automatic
-CD events: identified a couple of events. Missed a couple. Still need to be more mindful
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
Over the years I found CD to work beautifully on CL. That is where I first started using it. I am learning about its tendencies on the rest of the markets. I think there is promise
Having said that, I do not think I could ever devise a strategy around it. Context is king. It can be quite consistent in predicting little pauses in price, but if one tried to trade these pauses as reversals they could get run over often. I use it as a second level indicator in two ways. 1) As a "heads-up" tool. 2) As a confirming tool.
Heads-up tool:
If CD hits a major and significant swing it is a "heads-up" that I should be ready for price to pause or reverse. This happens frequently on oil just before or after the open. Often times price and CD are nowhere near the same relative swings so I don't think it is coincidence. CD will hit a swing from the previous day and price will reverse in a significant way. I will then look for set-ups that meet my criteria in that direction. If I am in a trade I will get ready to exit at the first sign of trouble.
Confirming tool:
If price is coming off of a significant support resistance level and CD is showing particular strength or weakness in the direction of price as it bases up, it is a clue that price will continue in the direction of the reversal. The next sign of buying or selling confirms that price is taking off. Extreme hidden divergences or divergences can be nice indicators of an event about to happen.
There are other subtleties but those are the basics of how I use it.
Cool I can dig that. I never thought about the actual swings of CD, I will have to check that out. I do agree about the usefulness of confirmation, and at least knowing when market participants are on or off the boat. I am gonna dig a little deeper into using CD around the edges of value areas on the volume profile for pullbacks. These would definitely seem to go hand in hand, but I haven't really seen the idea presented anywhere. I hope I am onto something.
One live trade was on M6E. I thought the contract was worth $6.25 per tick. Turns out it is only $1.25 per tick. so I didn’t lose as much as I thought.
It was a very good set up but the market decided to change trend on a dime and I got trapped.
1 live trade on QM. The trade worked well but I took myself out at +1 thinking I would get back in when it resumed. I did not.
Real time marker activity was good today. 5 winners, 2 loser, 1 BE
I need to consider getting up at 5:00 on unemployment days. There tends to be a lot of movement.
Objectives recap:
-Wrote goals and affirmations
-Only took 1 trade. That’s 3 for the week, 5 behind my goal. Plenty of opportunities though
-Did not manage to get on board any trends. Had chance in GC and NG. Chickened out
-Watch for TL BO failures. Yes
-Watch for OS retests. Yes
Three trades today. Two were on micro GC just as an experiment so no details worth speaking. Volume way too low on MGC. Too much slippage. It’s only good if expected move is large.
Trade 1: 6E. Total Reasonable Movement -1, +16. Thought it had potential so I let it ride. Had as much as 16t in the trade but it came back to entry. Exit BE. This is the delicate balance between leaving trades on and taking profits. I had a chance to get out at +5t when it was showing signs of weakness, but I let it take me out.
Marker activity was good: 3 winners, 2 losers, 4 BE
Objectives Recap:
-Wrote out goals and affirmations.
-Took 3 trades
-Was not able to identify an early trend.
-Paying attention to TL BO failures
-Paying attention to OS retests
-Paying attention to CD events
Monthly Recap April 2015
Live Trades: 17: 4 winners, 13 losers
Starting balance for the Month: $2941.94
Withdrawals for the month: $0
Deposits for the month: $0
Month’s P/L: -$166.14
Ending balance for the month: $2775.80
Beginning account balance from first live trade on 3/10/15: $3000.00
Total Withdrawals: $0
Total Deposits: $0
Total Gains/losses from 3/10/15: -$224.20
Of the 17 trades:
76% reached .67R before -1R, same as last month
76% reached 1R before -1R, improvement over last month (50%)
71% reached 1.33R before -1R, improvement over last month (50%)
65% reached 1.5R before -1R, new category this month
65% reached 2R before -1R, significant improvement over last month (12.5%)
41% reached 2.5R before -1R, new
24% reached 3R before -1R, new
Average winning trade was 1.68 X average losing trade.
According to the above stats I should have made good money in April. Still wrestling with confidence in my set ups, both in entering and in staying with the trades, but it is getting better.
Main focus for the next month will be increasing my trade count.
Weekly Summary 4/27/15 to 5/1/15
Live Trades: 6, 2 winners, 4 losers
Week’s P/L: $42.43
Starting balance for the week: $2700.27
Withdrawals for the week: $0
Deposits for the week: $0
Ending balance for the week: $2742.70
Beginning account balance from first live trade on 3/10/15: $3000.00
Total Withdrawals: $0
Total Deposits: $0
Total Gains/losses from 3/10/15: -$257.30
Took 6 trades, 4 shy of goal of 10 trades. Did some nice work on recognizing TL BO failures, OS retests, and CD events. The real time marker journaling with reasons why I skipped each trade, along with how the trade played out is helpful for building confidence. The results were 48 trade areas, with 15 2R winners, 18 1R losers, and 15 break even. This is showing me that I am recognizing good areas and if I were to take them all I would come out profitable. Next week I will include Total Reasonable Movement (TRM) in each of the marked areas.
-Write out goals and affirmations before market open
-Take minimum two live trades per day
-Be mindful of TL breakout failures
-Be mindful of Opening Swing retests
-Be mindful of significant CD events
-Journal real time marker placement and why I passed on the trade. Track Total Reasonable Movement (TRM) of price from each marker.
No trades. Markets were very slow and there were few good looking areas.
Real time marker activity was good: 2 winners, 2 losers, 2 BE. Would have been a winning day if all trades taken.
Objectives recap:
-Write out goals and affirmations before market open: Done
-Take minimum two live trades per day: no trades. No good looking areas. Almost took a ZN trade that was a loser. It was late in day so good thing I didn’t.
-Be mindful of TL breakout failures. Not much activity here
-Be mindful of Opening Swing retests. Identified one on NQ
-Be mindful of significant CD events. Nothing significant
-Journal real time marker placement and why I passed on the trade. Track Total Reasonable Movement (TRM) of price from each marker: placed 6 markers and journaled why I passed. Tracked TRM from each marker. Four of the marked areas got to +1R and two went -1R.
