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Took 1 live trade Friday in the bonds. I’m kind of liking the bonds because:
-The movement is relatively tight with less back filling.
-Breaks of trend channels often result in at least enough movement to get to BE. Because there is less back filling, BE is often safe after 4 or 5 ticks in the money.
-Being proved wrong is only a handful of ticks away.
-Lots of liquidity with little slippage. Future scaling to larger positions is possible
-Time to think
Beginning account balance from first live trade on 3/10/15: $3000.00
Current account balance: $2901.90
Withdrawals: $0
Deposits: $0
Total gains/losses from the beginning: -$98.10
Takeaways from the week:
-I have come to grips with the fact that at this point I cannot really afford to "go for it" with abandon because my risk per trade is too large. Therefore it is not healthy to put undue pressure on myself by setting minimum daily trade count goals. This will mean passing on a lot of trades that look pretty good and go on to nice gains. I MUST LET THEM GO! It is imperative that I wait patiently for only those trades that really speak to me, and when they come along on those rare occasions, jump in with confidence. Until my account gets larger this must be my prime directive.
-Always be cognizant of who the market is trapping or who is trapped. Market movement is not always based on trapping traders. Sometimes it is just finding new value based on new economic discovery. But there are times when market makers clearly force their hand in the market in such a way as to fill as many orders as possible to accomplish their goals at the expense of other traders. Once this fulfillment has taken place the market begins to move against those traders. As they bail on their positions the movement can be quite swift and prolonged in the other direction. Examples on NQ and CL:
-Wait for rules to be clearly fulfilled before entering a trade. On my first live trade this week I entered before I had a clear break of the TL. Had I waited I would not have entered and taken the loss because, a) the trigger bar was not a clear enough break, and, b) the entry bar did not close up and out of the TL.
-Risk acceptance is a key. I need to be prepared to accept the dollar amount of the risk on every trade. In addition, I don’t necessarily have to take full stop outs. I can choose to exit early if the price action is not responding to my trade idea. This means that in the aggregate, my risk per trade will actually be less than the usual $150.
-When CL is showing stacked large orders, find a way to get in. Don’t just sit there and watch it with regrets as it goes after those orders all day.
-As price unfolds in real time, visualize what your summary charts will look like at the end of the day. Ask, "will it make sense to give this area a red or blue arrow?" If the answer is not clear, pass.
-I am looking at ways to reduce my risk per trade without compromising my methodology. They include:
-NQ, reduce from 2 contracts to 1
-QM, 50% of CL. A lot less liquid and moves in increments of 2.5 cents. Might make sense in certain circumstances.
-ZN, higher tick value but movement is such that my patterns are proven wrong in fewer ticks. Overall the risk per trade can be cut to $75 to $90.
No doubt at times it is well worth it to put on CL, NG and GC trades and take more risk. Not sure yet where this will lead. Also added 6E to the watch list.
-Annotate the charts more in real time and hindsight. It sparks more ideas for these weekly reviews.
Tomorrow:
-consider the points above. Think of the prime directive
-stay engaged all session. Don't let yourself get distracted.
-Take your results, good or bad, like a man
B grade on engagement. Missed a couple of the opps that were there.
Tomorrow:
-prime directive: wait for the best. Let the rest go, both actually and emotionally.
-Watch for traps
-visualize how I might mark up the summary charts at the end of the day
-Stay engaged all session
3/17/15 Tuesday
Live Trades: 1, 1 loser
Days P/L: -$4.60
Sim Trades: 0
One live trade today. Accidental entry on chart trader. Looked at NG and realized I had a trade on. Managed to get out at 0t.
Good movement on certain instruments but nothing comfortable to trade. There were opportunities available though.
I have been missing some trades lately waiting for price to return to touch channel lines. In fast moving markets it never does so I miss out. I need to start looking at some of these smaller patterns to enter in active markets. Example marked on GC chart.
Nothing on ZN today
Today’s objectives:
-prime directive: managed to nicely let trades go. No emotions. Whenever I felt a little twinge of regret I quickly pulled myself back.
-traps: saw a trap developing on NQ that moved quickly to the downside. See NQ chart
-periodically expanded charts to visualize what the summary might look like. I realize I am passing on a lot of trades that I later mark as possibilities.
-stayed engaged. I don’t recall anything getting by me today. Lots of conscience choices to stay out.
Tomorrow, repeat:
-prime directive: wait the best. Let the rest go both emotionally and physically.
-Watch for traps
-visualize how I might mark up the summary charts
-Stay engaged all session
3/18/15 Wednesday
Live Trades: 1, 1 loser
Days P/L: -$64.60
Sim Trades: 0
I was tested today. On the best day for making money in months I lost $64.60 on a single trade that was the result of a mouse clicking error. That’s two such errors in two days. I didn’t have more than two of those in all the time I was in sim. Go figure
I wasn’t sure how to summarize what just happened today, so I took a long walk with the dog by the river to reflect. The thought that kept playing in my mind was that it was a day of extreme emotions. Great pangs of regret soothed by elation. Regret watching in real time as set-up after set-up played out perfectly and spectacularly without me. Elation knowing that this thing is right there for the taking, if I can just get over this little issue I am having, and engage the market.
I don’t think it is exaggerating to say that the opportunity was there today to double my account ($2900) with no more risk than $150 per trade, depending on how margins on multiple positions would have played out. This is a lot of “coulda-woulda” and that’s ok. Playing the “coulda-woulda” game is important in my opinion. It is how I got good at golf. It is nothing more than visualizing the ideal, learning from mistakes, tightening up your game, replaying how you would do it differently for next time. Then you let it go.
The charts tell the story. I knew it was bad until I started to summarize the charts. Then I realized it was worse. There was serious money left on the table today! But, having said that, I now know that the waiting game can work out just fine. Wait, wait, wait until the optimum time, then pounce and all those hours and days of no trades can be made up for. Just make sure to pounce!
Takeaways from today:
-Waiting is fine. You are not wasting your time. Huge chunks of gains can be made quickly.
-When all the markets are lit up from major news, take risk. It is well worth it.
-On high momentum days when you think it is over, it is very often not. There are more moves to come.
Positives:
-Once I missed the best opportunities after FOMC, I didn’t chase in an effort to make up. The irony is that this “discipline” caused a lot of missed opps as well!
-I marked a lot of really nice trade areas in real time.
As for my objectives:
-Prime directive, let missed opportunities go without emotional reaction: This was severely tested, and I failed the test. I’m not going to lie, there were some F-bombs! I’m over it now.
-Traps: no need to wait for traps today, the market was moving.
-Visualize the summary charts: did a nice job of this until FOMC, then things moved really fast.
-Stay engaged: mission accomplished, even in the slow first hours.
Tomorrow:
-prime directive: wait for the best. Let the rest go, both emotionally and physically.
-Watch for traps
-visualize how I might mark up the summary charts
-Stay engaged all session
3/19/15 Thursday
Live Trades: 2; 1 winner, 1 loser
Days P/L: -$18.00
Sim Trades: 0
Two trades, one deliberate and the other another clicking mistake. I’ve changed my chart trader window to avoid one click entries, so hopefully that solves the problem.
The one trade was a long trap trade on NQ looking for a quick run to the short side after failing to go higher several times. It went against me slightly then in my favor slightly and I got out at +1t when it failed to take off as expected. Good decision.
Objectives:
- I was able let a lot of trades go with little emotion. Good progress. I am starting to laugh at it. Didn’t get anxious to trade after missing so much yesterday.
-I noticed the trap developing on NQ but unfortunately it didn’t materialize into a profitable trade.
-Largely visualized the summary charts and marked a lot of areas real time (thinner arrows) but still missed a lot of opps that I notice later. 60% in this area.
-Stayed engaged. Markets had a lot less energy today for obvious reasons, but I managed to follow along nicely in six markets for 6 ½ hours.
Tomorrow:
-prime directive: wait for the best. Let the rest go, both emotionally and physically.
-Watch for traps
-Visualize how I might mark up the summary charts. See how many trades I can mark real time vs hindsight.
-Stay engaged all session
3/20/15 Friday
Live Trades: 2; 1 winner, 1 loser
Days P/L: +$141.38
Sim Trades: 0
Two live trades today, one in NG, and one in NQ
Trade 1 NG: from entry -5t against me, +52 in my favor. Exited at +15t. Wanted a win under my belt and to get back near whole. Satisfied with the result even though I left a lot on the table
Trade2 NQ: from entry -5t against, +26t for. Exited at 0t. Did not like entry location, way too late. Did not want to stick around through a pull back.
Identified about $1500 worth of trades in the first hour. Looking forward to the day I have the courage to take advantage.
Fulfillment of objectives:
-Prime directive: felt like I waited patiently for the best trades and did a nice job of letting go of the rest.
-did not identify any traps.
-Visualize the summary chart: Did a pretty good job of this. 75%. NG and 6E surprised me though. I had to mark a lot of areas after the act.
-Stayed nicely engaged all session.
3/16/15 to 3/20/15 Week’s summary
Live Trades: 6: 2 winners, 4 losers
Weekly P/L: +$54.14
Sim Trades: 0
Balance starting the week: $2901.90
Current balance: $2956.04
Beginning account balance from first live trade on 3/10/15: $3000.00
Withdrawals: $0
Deposits: $0
Total Gains/losses from beginning: -$43.96
Getting more comfortable with live trading, though 3 of the 6 trades were accidental entries caused by mouse clicking errors. These clicking errors caused $88.22 of losses. I have changed the format of my chart trader to eliminate one-click entries so hopefully that particular problem has been solved.
Some takeaways from the week:
-be prepared for secondary steeper trend lines to form in strong trends. In strong trends price does not always make it back to the original TL but instead forms steeper lines.
-6E has been very productive lately. Once it breaks a well formed TL or channel it can move large distances. Pay more attention to this instrument.
-The big FOMC day on Wednesday had some lessons. 1) When all the markets are lit up, get in. When price moves it doesn’t look back. 2) Keep trading. When you think it is over, it is not. 3) Waiting day after day for the best trades is not a waste of time as long as you take advantage of these types of days. The market will eventual make up for the waiting.
-Becoming more comfortable emotionally letting successful potential trades go that I identify and choose not to take.
-The reminder to visualize the summary chart as I watch price in real time is helpful. It is causing me to mark more areas in real time so I can evaluate the quality of my judgement later.
-I am doing a good job of staying engaged with the markets throughout the sessions.
Weekly trade log and Friday’s account statement attached.
Tomorrow’s objectives:
Continue work on the above takeaways.
3/23/15 Monday
Live Trades: 0
Days P/L: 0
Sim Trades: 0
No trades but did some nice mark ups in real time. Identified some very productive areas.
Enjoying the 6 markets. They all have their own personalities and I can count on at least one of them offering up opportunities nearly every day.
Day’s objectives update:
-Prime directive: getting very settled with letting price movement go once I have decided not to engage.
-6E once again was very productive. Need to engage one of these days
-Did a nice job of staying with the markets and visualizing how I would mark up the summary charts. Added a few markers after the fact, but for the most part recognized most good trade areas in real time.
Tomorrow:
-Continue work on prime directive: emotionally let go of trades I choose to pass on.
-Keep eye on 6E opportunities
-Continue work on marking or taking trades in real time by visualizing how I would mark the charts at the end of the day. See if I can identify most trade areas in real time.
-Stay engaged the entire session.
3/24/15 Tuesday
Live Trades: 0
Days P/L: 0
Sim Trades: 0
No trades. The markets had a lot of energy when I first opened the platform at 5:45am but I struggled to find a reasonable entry. The best opp came at 6:10 in 6E but I chose to pass and watched it run unimpeded for 38 ticks ($475). For a while after that the possibilities were vague and uninspiring as the energy slowed.
The second best opp of the day came at around 9:00am on ZN as it bounced off a large double bottom and broke the down trend line with authority. I have noticed that when opportunities on ZN are clear, they almost always work. It is those in-betweeners that I have to be careful of.
Objectives measures:
-Prime directive, letting go. Continued progress. The missed trades in 6E and ZN were no big emotional deal.
-6E continues to produce.
-Visualizing summary charts for trade possibilities in real time. Struggled a bit today. 50%. The movements weren’t real clear in many cases. As I wrote in the notebook, “not every day will have clear signals.”
-Stayed engaged the whole session.
Tomorrow:
-Continue work on prime directive: emotionally let go of trades I choose to pass on.
-Keep eye on 6E opportunities
-Continue work on marking or taking trades in real time by visualizing how I would mark the charts at the end of the day. See if I can identify most trade areas in real time.
-If I see an obvious set up on ZN take it. It’s not that costly.
-Stay engaged the entire session.
