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FuturesTrader99 Trading Journal

  #11 (permalink)
 
Big Mike's Avatar
 Big Mike 
Manta, Ecuador
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Good job on the goal setting and grading, nicely done.

I look forward to more!

Mike

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  #12 (permalink)
FuturesTrader99
Vancouver, Canada
 
Posts: 31 since Mar 2010
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Hi Mike,

Thanks for the affirmation! I'm learning a lot from Dr.Brett as well, and will add the "what went right/wrong" to my daily review posts in the future.

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  #13 (permalink)
FuturesTrader99
Vancouver, Canada
 
Posts: 31 since Mar 2010
Thanks Given: 5
Thanks Received: 28


Plan for April 1, 2010

Range continues to contract, as price consolidates inside the drop from 1176-1156.
Sellers have been active 1169.5-1171 area for 5 consecutive sessions now. Buyers have not been able to take control of price > 1170, while sellers are unable to take control of price < 1162.5. Monday's gap up has been filled, and the weekly pivot 1162.25 has been tagged, and we've had only 4 unfilled gaps this month - overall, an efficient, albeit range bound market. I did notice a big block sell (4K contracts @1170.25); however, in the bull's corner, there may be some upside bias due to 1st of the month seasonality factors. Either of these things will need confirmation, but something to be aware of. Nothing has really changed, so I will continue to monitor the 1162.5-ish or 1172-ish area for a potential breakout or breakdown.

Areas to do business: 1155.5, 1160, 1162.5, 1169.5, 1172, 1175.5, 1179, 1183

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  #14 (permalink)
FuturesTrader99
Vancouver, Canada
 
Posts: 31 since Mar 2010
Thanks Given: 5
Thanks Received: 28

Here is a chart showing my trades:

Red arrows show my trades
red lines are my areas to do business
dark green line are session highs
bright green lines are my areas to do business
cyan is previous closes

overnight bias was up. There was actually a lot of activity going on overnight.
opening 5IB was moving in direction of overnight uptrend. This was warning sign #1.
First trade was front running my 1176 number by shorting 1174.5. Burned for -1.25pts
Took a 5min. break as per plan. That was the longest 5min. of my existence.
I came back, waited for the 7am economic event, and after it came out, I saw the market flatline right around my resistance number. However, then I spotted the TICK downtrend, and it was 7am reversal time, and the EMA's were rolling over, so I decided to short 1175. I was short at around 713am, but got shaken out 2min. later at 1176. -1pt loss. Only after the market shook me out did I realize that my thesis was proven correct. So I decided to short again 1174.75. That's when i got trapped in the "meat grinder." I shorted 720am, market then literally flatlined. Dust gathered on the drying paint until the market decided to shake me out again at 744am, 1176.
Done for the day.

PnL: -3.5 pts
Cumulative PnL: 0.75pts.


Staying out of trouble: F
Pattern recognition: C (recognized the 1176 rollover, but not the 5IB in direction of overnight bias)
Discipline (following rules/plan): C- (should have waited at least 5min. before trading as per plan)
Patience: C-

I'm beginning to notice a pattern of mistakes here, and the most significant one is that I am prone to making mistakes the next day after having a profitable day prior. Will have to work hard to correct it.

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  #15 (permalink)
FuturesTrader99
Vancouver, Canada
 
Posts: 31 since Mar 2010
Thanks Given: 5
Thanks Received: 28

Practice!

The biggest criticism of sim trading is how it fails to accurately reproduce the mental and emotional effects of real live trading scenarios with real capital at risk. I understand that point and do not disagree with it.

I actually used to view sim trading with apathetic disdain. Why? Because there is nothing at stake, so why bother to put in the time and effort? But now, with the help of Dr. Brett's teachings, I have learned to change my deceptively negative attitude towards "practice." To me, sim trading is not about trying to accurately reproduce a real live trading scenario with real money at stake; instead I view Sim trading, when it serves a purpose and directed at accomplishing specific goals, as a useful and valuable tool. For some, sim trading can be risk free way to test out a new trading strategy/idea. For others it can a risk free way to work on certain aspects of their trading. For those starting out, sim trading is a great way to get some "practice" time prior to performing live.

From my context, I am using sim trading to accomplish the following goals:

- I believe in consistency, therefore I plan to practice the trading process (eg. in my context it would be spotting the setup, executing without hesitation, and then manage the stop/exit) until it becomes a habit.

I will stick with the previously mentioned 4 week criteria to going live, because according to Steve Pavlina, that is the length of time it takes for a habit to become internalized within us.

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  #16 (permalink)
FuturesTrader99
Vancouver, Canada
 
Posts: 31 since Mar 2010
Thanks Given: 5
Thanks Received: 28

76% of all Mondays since Jul/09 have closed above session open. 50% of the ones that didn't still closed up above previous close.

So, we have statistical evidence to look for an upside bias on Monday. For the past 2weeks, the Market has been forming an ascending triangle pattern, with the resistance line at 1176.5. Also, Thursday was an 8BNR day, indicating impending volatility expansion. Because of my modest profit targets, I think that even a false breakout could be actionable. Also, Thursday's VPOC > Wednesday's VAH(1169.5).
1.) I will be looking for evidence and confirmation to go long at 1170.5-ish or 1173-ish.

On the flip side, over 84% of all gaps since Jan/10 has been filled, so there's definitely potential for the market to at least have one sequence which attempts to fill at least half of the gap. Market accepted 1168-1169 area as value last week. I observed 7K contracts go long at 1167, which confirms 1168-1169 as value. On thursday, it tried to build value at the 1173 area.
2.) I will be looking for evidence and confirmation to go short at 1180, 1183, 1187.

The overnight session behaviour and 5IB will yield me good clues for the morning bias, and whether there is anything actionable in the first half hour.
If market response to NFP is bullish, I will be on the lookout for buyers to step in around the gap fill area 1173-ish.
If market response to NFP is bearish, I will be on the lookout for sellers to step in <= 1166.


Areas to do business: 1158.5, 1162, 1165, 1167.5, 1170.5, 1173, 1176, 1180, 1183, 1187

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  #17 (permalink)
FuturesTrader99
Vancouver, Canada
 
Posts: 31 since Mar 2010
Thanks Given: 5
Thanks Received: 28

Here is a chart showing the most recent Euro breakout attempt:


I was watching the multiple tags of 1.3485. It was boxed into a tight range 1.3485 - 1.3491. I've seen this pattern before, and given the trend away from VPOC 1.3472, I had a hunch that the pattern would resolve to the upside. And sure enough, it did, tagging 1.3495 just after I made this snapshot.
I've been reckless with my Euro trading in the past, will need to formulate a plan and rules for this market as well before I continue trading it.

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  #18 (permalink)
FuturesTrader99
Vancouver, Canada
 
Posts: 31 since Mar 2010
Thanks Given: 5
Thanks Received: 28

Here is the chart of today's trading results:


the arrows show my trades
orange lines are my areas to do business
green line are prior session highs
cyan are previous closes
red line is prior session low
(I think I will stick with this colour scheme going forward)

overnight bias spiked up, then went down.
opening 5IB was moving in direction of overnight downtrend. This indicated a desire to probe support.
First trade was long at my 1176 number. Scratched. It was not behaving as I expected, so I got out with no questions asked.
Within a minute or so, I took another long trade, this time at 1175.5. I still didn't see signs of a reversal, so this was a mistake to enter too early. I exited 1174.75. -0.75pt loss.
Shortly after I exited, I saw the signs of a reversal: -ve TICK cluster could no longer push price down, sell volume getting weaker. I entered long at 1174.75. Just after I entered, the (laggy) indicators confirmed: DMI turned up, TTM trend turned green, and price broke above 1176 again and EMA's turned up.
Unfortunately, I exited too soon 1177.25. Price ran to 1179.25 before the 7am economic news was released. left 2points profit on the table.

Then it got worse. After the 7am news event, Price ran further, until it finally stalled 1183.75. At around 846am, I decided to enter short 1182.25. That's when i got trapped in the "meat grinder" again. It wasn't until 2hrs later that I exited 1181.75
Done for the day.

PnL: +2.25 pts
Cumulative PnL: +3.0pts.


Staying out of trouble: D (got trapped in the meat grinder again)
Pattern recognition: C (spotted the 1175 reversal and 1183.5 reversal)
Discipline (following rules/plan): C (followed plan on the most part except for 2nd trade where I did not wait for confirmation before entering)
Patience: C (out waited the market on the last trade, but should have been slower to take profits on the third trade).

One of those strange days where I was profitable, but do not consider my performance up to par. Need to amend my rules to further help me stay out of trouble.
For tomorrow, I need to work on staying out of trouble, and being slower to take profits on profitable trades.

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  #19 (permalink)
FuturesTrader99
Vancouver, Canada
 
Posts: 31 since Mar 2010
Thanks Given: 5
Thanks Received: 28

Plan for Tuesday:

Current uptrend is well entrenched, and shows no warning signs thus far. Being overbought is fast becoming meaningless. Ascending triangle pattern resolved to the upside. Institutional money has rotated into Gold, Oil, and retail sectors in this phase of the uptrend. Classic Market Profile "P" pattern which indicates the market is accepting higher values. The unfilled gap 1173.5 and today's morning reversal at 1175 reinforces the bullish view. Lack of volatility thus far favours higher prices for later this week. Sellers will want to test today's breakout, so a re-visit of the scene of the crime (1175) is likely.
We could also see yet another bull-trap failed breakout pattern like last week. This has actually created the pre-requisite energy for buyers to take the market to new contract hights during this latest uptrend.
Alternatively, if we see a repeat of today's morning dip, I will look to buy just below the gap fill this time. I may also try to play the gap fade if things setup properly.
Again, I need to see a breakdown below 1166 to become bearish. My focus will mainly be to stay out of trouble tomorrow.

Areas to do business: 1161.5, 1165, 1167, 1172, 1176, 1180, 1187, 1192

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  #20 (permalink)
FuturesTrader99
Vancouver, Canada
 
Posts: 31 since Mar 2010
Thanks Given: 5
Thanks Received: 28


Here are my trades for Tuesday:


Trade1: short 1178.5, exited 1179. This was a mistake, as I initiated a trade in the first 5min. of open. I realized my mistake, and quickly got out as soon as I had a favourable uptick.

Trade2: o/n bias was down, but the 5IB was an "extend reverse up", which indicated that the market wanted to probe resistance. So I entered Long 1180. After I entered, the market flatlined, and basically chopped around aimlessly for a good 20min. I exited b/e.

My reason for exiting was purely psychological, and not a technical reason: I wasn't willing to hold through directionless chop. Had I been willing to hold thru it, I would have been rewarded with a potential 2-4pt gain. It was directionless chop, but at the same time, there were no warning signs to get out: NYAD was actually trending up, TICK was neutral but above zero.

After that, I started nodding off while trying to watch the markets, so I called it a day.

Daily PnL: -0.5 pts
Cumulative PnL: +2.50 pts


Staying out of trouble: B (exited early from losing position in first trade)
Pattern recognition: B+ (doing well in discerning the market's rhythm; recognized the 5IB indicated desire to probe resistance)
Discipline (following rules/plan): D (broke my rules about not entering in the 1st 5min. of open)
Patience: C (wasn't willing to out wait the market for a second consecutive session)

I'm self aware enough to know that I don't have enough patience yet to out wait the market, so I'm not going to beat myself up over missing out on the potential profit on that last trade. I will do some investigation on various ways on how I can improve my patience. In the bigger picture, I'm noticing that some of these trades have suffered from my micro-management of the trade. Another thing to add to the list of things to work on......

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Last Updated on April 13, 2010


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