Alright, so today was the first day of a new 30k combine. As in usual fashion when I start a combine, volatility is at ridiculously low levels. Also my main trading computer decided to randomly install its first major update this morning, so I am just now getting that computer back 5 hours later. This was obviously my fault, and totally preventable, but regardless sent me into a tizzy of unneeded distraction and frustration first thing this morning.

Fortunately I had Sierra Chart installed on my other computer, and quickly worked to throw up a few charts that matched my other workspace.

So today was not an impressive day by any means, neither range nor of my trading. I felt I was definitely leaning on the conservative side this morning, as random, non news, large volume entered the market. Once we had two failures to move higher, I decided the day more than likely was range bound, and that any chance of large range expansion was near zero. Although I did follow my plan, and trusted my gut, I do consider today to be a success.

Large volume bars of 8000+ can initiate very strong trends/reversals on the 6B. Once large volume came in and price was rejected off of 30 minute trend support, my first thoughts were continuation. So I bought the pull back to VWAP with one contract to start. We failed to make new highs, so once we got a rejection higher from a previous low, I moved my stop to right below that swing. So of course I was stopped out at the exact swing low to the tick, but this was the my plan, and I accept it. A couple points wider next time might be wiser.

Once we moved back outside of the +1 SD on decent volume, I took another stab at a long. My initial plan was that if we continued to move higher I would add to it, and if the level failed then I would get out, and make another attempt at support/VWAP. The level failed, we got out, and the market turned once again. I don't think I have ever seen the market start to make its move at 11:30, so I assumed it was not worth taking the risk on a third attempt so I called it a day. Got a small rally with no place to enter on pull back so I let it go. Range absolutely pathetic, and tomorrow is a new day.

I see we have monetary policy from U.S. and England Wednesday and Thursday so that should give vol a bump!

It's easy to look at today and say, well if we would have just widened our stop both places, then we would have given the trade proper room to work out, and maybe had a decent little day. To that I say no way to the first spot, pure coincidence, but I could have held out a little longer on the second. Ideally I would have only held if I was going to scale another contract to improve my average, but I would have had to push the stop out another 10 points for it to make sense. I was even less confident after the first trade didn't go anywhere, and would have drastically increased my potential risk for the trade. Too many things just weren't adding up today, but regardless it is noted, and will keep it in mind going forward.

You can see my entries and exits on the 5 minute chart below.

Day two, and another day not really worth trading.

We had put in a test of a previous bottom, after quite a sharp move overnight. So I did start out the day leaning counter trend, assuming we would test HTF resistance levels that I could lean against. After the sloppy build up to the 30m resistance, price did maintain the RTH +1sd. For my first fade against weekly/monthly -1SD, I should have waited for the test to enter, instead of placing the limit order in case of a pop, which it did. So took a quick 8 point loss on a high volume B/O higher. No biggie I thought, as now we have clear direction, and volume entering the market.

In the back of my mind I thought the large bar might be exhaustion, and so I thought I would play it conservative, but I did the opposite. I played it more aggressive than usual, and it bit me. I managed to exit on the final low tick of two separate bars, as I watched the market move right to my first target. With high counter trend volume coming into the market after the break out, I never should have entered the second contract until we started to show signs of sell exhaustion. That simple move would have moved my losing day into a profitable one. More vertical moves to follow, with no break of the new highs left much opportunity to be desired, so I decided not to dig deeper. The next two days should offer lots of opportunity for profit, and hopefully a bump in overall volatility.

As we are settling into this period of low volatility, the market has started to skew greatly towards counter trending during the U.S. morning session. So this has lead me into some new market research that I am excited about. Anytime I am not performing well, usually it is because the environment is changing, and generally into something I am not totally familiar or comfortable with. This is exciting because every session that lacks my peak performance is an opportunity to take a fresh look at the market and learn something new, or at least tweak what I am doing.

This month so far has only had 2 out of 14 trading sessions where the European market was trending, and the U.S traded in continuation of that trend, vs. some sort of counter trend for the majority of the session. This is very low, and are numbers that will crush me if I am only looking at trading with trend first thing. So now I can go into analysis mode, and look for clues that might help me change direction earlier. When I get the direction right I tend to do quite well, but when things are convoluted and conviction is low, not so much.

I am still feeling quite confident as I know that one good day can completely erase my string of losing days. I am keeping losses small, while I wait for better opportunities on the horizon.
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So unfortunately the only good day to trade last week that offered significant opportunity was on Thursday, which is a day that I watch the kids all day while my wife works. But the truth is that everyday offered an opportunity to profit in which I failed to execute effectively. My nerves were definitely better today, so I think I am settling back into trading live.

Looking for trend continuation, I found a suitable place to test a long just above the weekly vwap, after we had double bottomed from support, tested the downtrend line, and pulled back. I figured we would either find support there, or the trade wouldn't work out, and I would exit for a small loss. After we failed to clear a composite volume node, and the down trend line, I wanted to wait for a test of the Up trend just below support, so I exited. The market broke, offering no good areas for a good pull back entry, and with a test of yesterday's vwap we filled the day's range. So I stepped aside, and fired up excel.

Looking back, where I exited would have been a great place to reverse, had there not been a HTF trend line in the way. Plus it was technically a break out trade which I try to avoid. Patience for a better entry has definitely improved my trading, yet sometimes you just miss the trade. It just comes with the territory. Tomorrow is a new day!

Alight much better trading today, but man what a tough one! The range was literally 40 points for the first 4 1/2 hours, the smallest I have ever seen it. I thought we were gonna get some follow through today, but it just didn't happen. Most critical error I made today was missing the nice chance to add to my core position, but because of the lack of follow through this would have only slightly boosted my PnL. This is not the point though, if we did have follow through it would allowed me to push my core as far as possible, and given me the confidence to hold the trade as long as needed.

Since I missed the best opportunity to add, it forced me into a much less ideal location, right after buying exhaustion, and a high volume reversal. This is super important that I drill this. The market may not look pretty as the trade develops, but you actually get better trade locations as the market fights to form the trend. I actually had an entry order where I wanted to get in, but the market jumped my order after it bounced, and I refused to chase the entry. Even though this was the exact time I needed to chase lol.

My largest loss was taking a stop on that add, but made it up on a reversal trade after buying seemed exhausted. Ending the day at B/E is a win after being down -20 so I will take it. I am absolutely ok with these small range days oscillating around small wins/losses, waiting for the trend day that makes it all up plus some.

No trading today since I had the little boy, while momma took little girl to a field trip. Got some excellent research done though. Thursdays I'm off, so hopefully Friday is a good trading day!

So before I say today was frustrating, long and boring, I must say it was a success. It is essentially how I would want any day with limited opportunity to play out. For the most part I entered where I wanted to, and exited where I felt I needed to. I exploited what was available to me successfully, and for that I am happy. We had a range of 30 points today, where in the world has the volatility gone to? Main target was the weekly VWAP which we just could not get to.

The way that I look at it is that if I can find success in the lowest volatility environment in British Pound history, then I can conquer all, and when it comes back life things should be a breeze. So I will continue to trade in a disciplined manner.

I held my core position for 3 hours, to essentially scratch it at the end of the day. I had one successful scale, and one failure. I feel like I am getting in a good groove, and feel very comfortable throughout most of the day. Looking forward to next week. Oh yea, apparently TST is now doing a free coaching session once a month to all combine participants. That's pretty cool, so I set that up for Wednesday after the trading day.




Arrows represent potential entries that I passed based on gut feeling essentially.

So I spent a few hours going over my days in the combine so far, and it is obvious that the execution of my trade ideas is what is holding me back. Entry and stop placement. So I figured maybe I should try to not necessarily automate, but make some specific rules regarding entry and stops. Well I was excited to trade on Monday morning after the weekend, but I froze like a deer in headlights when it was time to trade.

The setup was clean, but it was overnight continuation which is a setup that has been failing due to the lack of volatility lately. Even though I watched the trade develop, and got another chance for entry I did not take it. I watched a beautiful day go by, and could not get myself to put on any risk. Today was essentially the same, except much better. 80 point range I could have sold in the morning, and then walked away. I have a phone call with the trading coach tomorrow, so looking forward to discussing that with him.

So trying to focus on getting back to the basics, focus on trend development and momentum shifts. These usually help me get back into my trading state of mind, but for some reason the confidence is just absent. My focus tomorrow is to just pull the trigger. Maybe after missing a morning that would have put me back into profitability on Monday, it put me in a negative state of mind, and maybe I just need to get my feet wet. Either way it's great to see some great trading days coming back to the market. Still blows my mind after 6 years of trading, success is literally in my head, just waiting for me to get out of the way.

Small loss this morning as I entered close to the end of the downtrend. Gaining some more confidence back today, after integrating new research into trading. Spoke with trading coach this afternoon, recommended I take Friday off of trading to focus on getting plan to 100%. I agree with him. Looking forward to better results next week.

Definitely looking much better today, once again in trading, not so much in profits. So now that I have my crap together I would like to go over my thought process.

First I identify the trend of the 120 minute chart, and how that nestles in the yearly VWAP, and its standard deviation bands. This gives me an idea of how the market is moving on the higher time frames, without actually having to look at them. Plus I have found that the 120 minute chart is about the highest timeframe that makes sense when working with a 5 minute chart. Next I look at Monthly VWAP and its bands, specifically looking for the possibility of an intraday bump, and what that might mean for current price action. I draw trend lines and mark trend support/resistance.

Next I look at the 30 minute chart with the previous information in mind. We are either trending with the 120 chart, having a minor/significant pull back, or the 30 minute trend has broken, and we are trading in complete contradiction to the 120 trend. IT was integrating this information, and deciding how to use it that threw my trading and focus off last week. Now of course we would always like to be trading in sync with the dominant 120 trend, but the momentum of the 30 minute chart is my main focus. But as trend lines break, and momentum shifts, it is keeping the larger picture in mind as this happens is what is most critical. My favorite setup is an extended counter trend on the 30 minute chart, just waiting to fall back in line with the dominant 120 trend. My goal is then to capture that momentum to the best of my ability from the 5 minute chart.
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Now onto today's trading. 120 minute trend down, 30 minute trend down, 5 minute chart trend down. So pretty bearish right? Except for the vertical move lower right into a previous low, which coincided with last Friday's VWAP, and last week's VWAP. Both of which can completely reverse the trend. So I waited for a pull back in price, and volume was pretty low so I entered at VWAP, and then added when momentum rolled over. Scaled out the 2nd contract as we tested the lows, and then reversed once we got a good bounce from that low. Volume was high comparatively, and it was the third test of the lows.

We failed at a test of the highs, and with a high volume rollover I was out. Got back in short at a great price on pull back from buy exhaustion. Had a 2nd order that did not get filled, and after we didn't get follow through there, I reversed again once we broke out to the upside. Well my alarm for a 10 am news report went off right after entry, so I exited. Initial target was VWAP which I would have gotten, a nice 20 point trade.

After breaking both 30 minute trendlines, I had my eyes set for a full on reversal. But after a 3rd test of VWAP we rolled over, with no chance of entry. So unable to trade both moves, we exit the day with a small loss. Pretty proud of that. Back in the saddle tomorrow.

Nicely profitable day today. Took trades in all areas of perceived opportunity, and was rewarded pretty well for it. Finally getting a knack for identifying reversals, but getting on board is definitely an art. Today I definitely had some luck as well.

Today was my first day with a decent profit. About double the size of my largest losing day, which is where I want to be at a minimum. Charging ahead with a focus on direction clarity, and good execution.
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The trend continued down overnight as per the 120 minute chart. We actually broke the 30 minute trend higher in the early morning hours, but the trend line from that price action broke to the downside after clearly testing and failing at the weekly -1SD. Definitely bearish, with a clear line in the sand to build a position from. Went ahead and got in, planning to add on a PB to above resistance.

Moved straight lower below VWAP to 30m trend support. Avoided the temptation to take profits on my one contract there in case we broke lower, I had a great entry, and didn't want to give it up. So I followed my plan instead and added on a PB to VWAP, market moved lower and got my first scale out. Got another pull back to VWAP, still confident in direction I entered again for a rinse/repeat trade(inspired by @Inletcap). Scaled out the add again. Was quite happy at this point.

The reversal at the break lower was quite frustrating after a pretty mentally taxing morning, really expecting it to break lower. So when it didn't I got my crap together and started to decide where I wanted to call it quit on the short. Took my profit on my core and waited to see what happened next.

We continued higher with ease, so without much chance for PB as all the sellers at the lows were getting skewered with the move higher, I decided to just get in with room to scale in if we fell back to VWAP. No such luck, and with a high volume move to test the highs I was out. Ended up being a great exit as well. So quite happy overall as planning and execution came together well.