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The Pandawarrior Chronicles II


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The Pandawarrior Chronicles II

  #121 (permalink)
 
PandaWarrior's Avatar
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
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Today was a day I decided to push and make some money....this basically means I add when I want to trail.....keep adding if new opportunities present themselves and hold to further targets....

I did that today and instead of trailing out at BE, I added.....this meant that I was able to multiply my earnings instead of minimizing them.....I scaled out at +20 or so, added back on when it seemed appropriate and scaled out as price action dictated. At no point was my risk increased.....I did maintain risk on one of the scale in's...but that is acceptable.

I passed on a BTL trade back to the 50% level and the 60M MA....this was an obvious trade but I was gonna have to leave soon for a doctors appointment and I didn't want it in progress while I was away.

Net of 120 ticks today....best day in a while....and no really big runners....lots of scale outs because price didn't run all the way to the profit grids like I thought they might....they may have later on but since my NT refuses to log in and update my charts right now, the first pic I took early on will have to suffice for today's post. I marked it with Evernote by memory which is why its a bit odd looking....hopefully I'll be able to log in soon and I can update my charts on the day.


Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #122 (permalink)
 
PandaWarrior's Avatar
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
Experience: None
Posts: 3,165 since Mar 2010
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Here's my value add for today...

For those of you that like following energy and want to indulge in some fundamental reading, I've been reading this newsletter for a couple of years now....always lots of good news to look at....I don't use a single bit of it in my trading but its always nice to read about what you're trading.....

News | First Enercast Financial

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
Started this thread
  #123 (permalink)
 
Traderwolf's Avatar
 Traderwolf 
Raleigh,NC
 
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Was cleaning out some files this morning and found this and it reminded me of some posts you have made over the years about finding your own way.

Wolf


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  #124 (permalink)
 
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 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
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Posts: 3,165 since Mar 2010
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Finally logged in and updated my charts....here is the marked up chart with the exact details....


Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
Started this thread
  #125 (permalink)
 
PandaWarrior's Avatar
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
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Posts: 3,165 since Mar 2010
Thanks Given: 6,329
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I've been reading John Mauldin for ten years....he is often early in his calls regarding macro events...but he's been right quite a bit.....

So agree or not, this piece is interesting reading for those who like global macro analysis....

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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The Pandawarrior Chronicles II-john-mauldin.pdf  
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  #126 (permalink)
 
PandaWarrior's Avatar
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
Experience: None
Posts: 3,165 since Mar 2010
Thanks Given: 6,329
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I arrived at the charts a few minutes to late to catch the pre market selling....so I resolved to just wait out whatever was gonna happen next. You can see the notes on the chart, I started to get impatient and irritated I missed that short trade. It started to wear on me and I realized what was going on....I even noted it on the chart....I should have walked away for a bit....and I did go wake my kiddo up for school....but it wasn't long enough. I shorted in the hole....not necessarily a terrible trade, just not one of my plan trades.

I closed this trade at -11 knowing it was a not a plan trade....so then I waited some more.....and started getting impatient again.....I knew after the large OR bar, it might rotate for a while and it did, but it was slow....and that wears on me, one reason I couldn't trade ES or something like it.....

Anyway, I got long after the consolidation break out....if you can call it that, regardless I failed to wait again for the actual BTL trade setup. Why? Because I was afraid it would run without me, it didn't of course and there was no hint it might, but I was afraid....and I closed this one at -10. So down -21.

Finally the BTL trade setup, I took it and scaled out at +20 and let the rest run to PG1 where I exited the entire position....net now +50ish....

Took my kiddo to school at this point, came back to see a BTL short had occurred while I was gone and figured price might rotate BTL for while....time to get my journal on.

Did see the BTL long set up, but was not interested at this point, getting hungry and feeling a little bored....no state to trade in. However the SEL back to PG1 valid as always. Normally a great place to enter.

Got some food, fresh eyes and shorted near the top...-10 ticks....wasn't really willing to risk much here....some pressure on the long side and I don't think its quite ready to flush out if its going to.....

Took another shot at the short, +20 and it stalled right there so closed it out....

Long at .77.....break of the levels and the premise of the trade was the PG2 level but the gap fill at 81.03 was in between...so I trailed my stop just in case a reversal at the gap fill.....exited at +15

I've been at this for about 5 hours now....I'm tired.....up 70 ticks so time to quit for the day.


Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
Started this thread
  #127 (permalink)
 
PandaWarrior's Avatar
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
Experience: None
Posts: 3,165 since Mar 2010
Thanks Given: 6,329
Thanks Received: 13,404

I made a few critical mistakes today:

1. I traded to long, especially once I figured out I was in a rotation day.

2. I traded to much trying to make something happen.

3. I didn't quit while I was ahead once I knew the rotation was happening.....

4. I kept hoping for a break out.....which we all know never happens when you need it!

5. I super imposed my view of what SHOULD be happening instead of just listening to ms market about what she was doing....and acting accordingly.

6. I over analyzed most of the day.

What I did right today:

1. I limited my max draw down to less than half of my real daily max.

2. I traded very small size....mostly one and two lots today. And only one lots once I figured out it was rotational.

3. I never closed a trade today because of fear, instead I let structure either take me out or I used a time filter....and I let structure dictate profit areas as well.

4. I closed trades manually once I knew they weren't working.

5. I traded the entire session today.....like a professional....

6. I didn't act on most of the analysis I did....

Net today, -30 ticks plus commissions....total of around -40....less than half my daily max draw down....

No charts today, I'm tired after a full day of trading a slow market, some honey do's and a nice long walk around the block.....I might post later tonight if I'm feeling better....

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
Started this thread
  #128 (permalink)
 
PandaWarrior's Avatar
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
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Posts: 3,165 since Mar 2010
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Here's the chart from today....in hindsight it's pretty obvious but in real time it was pretty darn hard.....thankfully I was long all day (thank you trading rules) other than the pre market gap fill, but it didn't help me any......I made one entry error with regards to not waiting for the set up....that's in the yellow box and it was a FOMO trade for sure....

After looking at the chart and my hand written notes, I realize some of my previous post was in error. I did make errors in closing trades. I don't really recall trailing stops, but its obvious I did.....if the stops weren't trailed, some of those losses would not have occurred....which brings up an interesting question, the divergence between my recall and what I know to be true based on where the fills were tells me stuff is happening I might not be fully aware of during the course of the trading day.

I know stuff like this happens in daily life. You do things that are second nature and later you don't remember doing them....I do this all the time driving.....I'll drive somewhere, be lost in thought and arrive at my destination without really knowing what went on between home and the destination....this might be funny in non trading life but... with regards to trading, it's dangerous to the account. This also tells me I moved stops so much that it's second nature and I need to be VERY aware of it from now on.


Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
Started this thread
  #129 (permalink)
 
PandaWarrior's Avatar
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
Experience: None
Posts: 3,165 since Mar 2010
Thanks Given: 6,329
Thanks Received: 13,404

Spent the day scalping for the most part, 3-5-10 ticks here and there....its exhausting. Meanwhile I missed the NG trade of the week....and made 8 handles long in SIM on ES....I'm thinking of using the new combine to trade ES....but only thinking.....Anyway, made about 40 ticks scalping around prior to the inventory number....lost a few after the number, then spent the rest of the morning waiting around on FOMC....ES fell out of bed without me....and CL followed a few minutes later, also without me...tried a couple of shorts in the hole, one went +20ish and reversed to stop out....the other stopped out....

I had a one shot at a nice long and I hesitated and ended up with a much worse entry than I could have had....which resulted in reduced profit and a stop out on the second lot....so a wash trade. Had I gotten it right, many more options would have been available for the second lot exit...as it was, I shot myself in the foot with the momentary hesitation....and yes I could have clicked the button, but I rarely do that and its second nature to not chase....in this case it would have been better to just click in....

I've been trading 1 lot lately. I don't like it much at all, so much easier to use a scalp trade plus a runner.....and the PnL curve looks so much better. I think I'll be going back to using at least 2 lots most of the time. At the same time, when I'm not winning, its easier to take the trade knowing its small size and thats been important the last two days....not a lot of confidence in the follow through from the signals so taking them anyway, adding if possible but basically probing around looking for some momo....

Right up against the daily range today which explains the resistance up there, still the chart was long and there were a couple of opportunities...better execution needed though.

ES led CL today especially as FOMC neared....interesting dynamic there....not sure if its meaningful or not....

Ended the day basically flat.....not to bad considering how awful the trading day was for my style. My MP buddy made some money today though....

One last thing, I've been thinking I need to trade longer, take advantage of every opportunity. So this last week and this week, I've been doing that, and once again, the principals I've espoused for so long are demonstrated again...

1. Decision fatigue sets in for me at about 3.5-4.5 hours. The longer I trade the worse it gets. I begin losing inhibitions at around 3.5 and at 4.5, near impossible for me to control. Which means more impulsive trades....not good. I've given it about a week doing this...
2. At least on CL, I can make my money fairly early and stop....there is opportunity to be sure later on, BUT it does seem its harder to come by....this might be my fatigue telling me this but its true for me anyway.

Tomorrow I will return to my "normal" trading hours. Come what may, its the best for me mentally and emotionally. I just don't have what it takes to be "in the zone" for 6 solid hours.....


Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
Started this thread
  #130 (permalink)
 
PandaWarrior's Avatar
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
Experience: None
Posts: 3,165 since Mar 2010
Thanks Given: 6,329
Thanks Received: 13,404


Did I mention I was looking forward to the weekend? Pretty tired this week....Need some rest....

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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Last Updated on March 13, 2015


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