Bias: slightly bearish

Overnight the bears continued the good work, went down with a point compared to close, but the bulls pushed back to prev. close.
I’m still a bear, but I’m waiting for the ONL to be broken, otherwise I think it’s sideways between 76 and 80.

The acceptance zones unfortunately became pretty thick:

82.1-82.55
80.9-81.4
80.5-80.65
79.85-80.3
79.20-79.65
78.4-79
76.95-77.8
76.5-76.8

daddy 

Bias: slightly bearish Overnight the bears continued the good work, went down with a point compared to close, but the bulls pushed back to prev. close. I’m still a bear, but I’m waiting for the ONL to be broken, otherwise I think it’s sideways between 76 and 80.

Sideways it was, mainly because of the low volume of the bank holiday.
Basically all day long the price stayed in the 76.95-77.8 zone. The bears one time tried to break from it, but only could make to the 76.5-76.8 zone, where the price turned, and went back to the giant zone.

How the zones played out:

Bias: neutral/slightly bearish

Overnight the price went sideways in the 77.1-78 zone, couldn’t climb above the close.
The inventories report is tomorrow, so probably the market will wait with sideways move. However, if the price can get below 75.84, the fall might continue.

The zones for today:

80.9-81.42
80.5-80.65
79.7-80.3
78.4-79
77.1-78
76.5-76.8

A trader should know when to stand up from the table, for me today it’s now.
The day started with a bit of an „oh, sh*t” feeling: I wanted to go short before the open, but considered it too risky. Of course, no money for bunnies..
Well, this had an impact on my day for sure, all my real trades were a loser (and all my „fantasy” trades were winners of course).

Trade 1:
Time: 9:51
Sell 2 @ 77.29
Buy 2 @ 77.30
P&L w. commissions: -29.24
Looked pretty good, with a huge selling imbalance, but on POC, so it was a bit risky. After triggering, huge buying imbalances formed, so I scratched. Good decision.


Trade 2:
Time: 10:02
Sell 2 @ 77.51
Buy 2 @ 77.51
P&L w. commissions: -9.24
Decreasing bull delta, and a neutral candle on top of VolProf. Instead of falling like a rock, it began to chop, so scratched again. Of course if I had the balls to sit, it would reach the target. I made a disciplined decision instead of money.

Trade 3:
Time: 10:22
Sell 2 @ 77.69
Buy 2 @ 77.75
P&L w. commissions: -129.24
There was a big sell imbalance on the top of the VolProf, but this wasn’t a valid signal: it wasn’t steched at all. Shouldn’t take this trade. Mistake 2: I didn’t react on the first buying imbalance. Hit stop.

Trade 4:
Time: 11:25
Sell 2 @ 77.97
Buy 2 @ 77.97
P&L w. commissions: -9.24
Huge strech at a round number, with a sell imbalance on top. I was too slow for the move, so I chased: instead of taking the trade at 78.01, I took it at 77.97. I scratched at the first sign of the bulls. If I’d enter at the right price, this would be a winner. If I’d sit on my hands, this would be a winner. BUT in the trader’s life there are no ifs, and no shoulda-wouldas, but the end of the day.

P&L for the day: -176.96
P&L for the month: -23.16
P&L from 09.24: 2028.9

daddy 

A trader should know when to stand up from the table, for me today it’s now. The day started with a bit of an „oh, sh*t” feeling: I wanted to go short before the open, but considered it too risky. Of course, no money for bunnies.. Well, this had an impact on my day for sure, all my real trades were a loser (and all my „fantasy” trades were winners of course). Trade 1: Time: 9:51 Sell 2 @ 77.29 Buy 2 @ 77.30 P&L w. commissions: -29.24 Looked pretty good, with a huge selling imbalance, but on POC, so it was a bit risky. After triggering, huge buying imbalances formed, so I scratched. Good decision. Trade 2: Time: 10:02 Sell 2 @ 77.51 Buy 2 @ 77.51 P&L w. commissions: -9.24 Decreasing bull delta, and a neutral candle on top of VolProf. Instead of falling like a rock, it began to chop, so scratched again. Of course if I had the balls to sit, it would reach the target. I made a disciplined decision instead of money. Trade 3: Time: 10:22 Sell 2 @ 77.69 Buy 2 @ 77.75 P&L w. commissions: -129.24 There was a big sell imbalance on the top of the VolProf, but this wasn’t a valid signal: it wasn’t steched at all. Shouldn’t take this trade. Mistake 2: I didn’t react on the first buying imbalance. Hit stop. Trade 4: Time: 11:25 Sell 2 @ 77.97 Buy 2 @ 77.97 P&L w. commissions: -9.24 Huge strech at a round number, with a sell imbalance on top. I was too slow for the move, so I chased: instead of taking the trade at 78.01, I took it at 77.97. I scratched at the first sign of the bulls. If I’d enter at the right price, this would be a winner. If I’d sit on my hands, this would be a winner. BUT in the trader’s life there are no ifs, and no shoulda-wouldas, but the end of the day. P&L for the day: -176.96 P&L for the month: -23.16 P&L from 09.24: 2028.9

I do feel you. It is always the hardest to fade the trend... It was clearly a trend, and it is always so much harder to bet on the trend, than to make a justification for a pullback

daddy 

Bias: neutral/slightly bearish Overnight the price went sideways in the 77.1-78 zone, couldn’t climb above the close. The inventories report is tomorrow, so probably the market will wait with sideways move. However, if the price can get below 75.84, the fall might continue.

Sideways, then. Basically, the price stayed in the 77.1-78 zone all day, closing at the ONL.

Bias: bearish

What I was waiting for yesterday, happened overnight, the bears pulled down the price 1 point.
The crude might break below 75.84 today, of course it all depends on the 11:00 crude inventories.
According to the median estimate in the Bloomberg survey, the crude inventories probably expanded by 1.1 million barrels in the week ended Nov. 7. If it’s more, we can see a hell of a drop.
Downward I don’t have any data, so if the price gets below the last zone, I’m gonna watch the newly forming zones (as always thorough the day).

The zones for today:

80.9-81.42
80.5-80.65
79.7-80.3
78.4-79
77.1-78
76.68-76.9
76.15-76.37

I was waiting for this drop, so I prepared to short whatever good setup I’ll see.
This is how it played out:

Trade 1:
Time: 9:09
Sell 2 @ 75.98
Buy 2 @ 76.05
P&L w. commissions: -149.24
It looked good: below ONL and a round number, with 200-something size in the book, I could see it’ll trend down from here all day.. Unfortunately the bulls stepped in immediately, so I was stopped out, with a big slippage
The idea was good, though, 45 minutes later it broke down, and never looked back. I wasn’t in, couldn’t see a good setup.


Trade 2:
Time: 9:58
Sell 2 @ 75.78
Buy 2 @ 75.59
P&L w. commissions: 370.76
I know, I know, taking a short after a 50 tick straight drop, when everybody looks for a buy opportunity? But I simply couldn’t resist this one.
I mean, come on, 405,147,95 sell imbalance in a row? Yeah I want to take it, baby. The only reason I didn’t go with 5, was the long strech down, and the disappearance of bear delta.
But still, from this I wanted to take 20 ticks. It went easily 10 ticks, so I could take my usual target. Instead of this, I waited, and didn’t move my stop. It nearly stopped me out, then turned and took the target. Greedy get caught, but not this time!

Trade 3:
Time: 12:15
Sell 2 @ 75.28
Buy 2 @ 75.29
P&L w. commissions: -29.24
Nicely steched, with a big sell imbalance. Unfortunately, after it triggered, the bulls stepped in, with a nearly as big buy imbalance, so I scratched.


P&L for the day: 192.28
P&L for the month: 169.12
P&L from 09.24: 2221.18

Bias: neutral

Yesterday the crude dropped, as anticipated
Overnight the bears pulled the price to a new low, 73.25, but the bulls managed to get back above the previous close. The fall was big yesterday, but it seems the bulls came back, so I’m neutral today. Since it’s Friday, it might be a sideways/small correction today …. or not
Haven’t got the foggiest what happens today, but still a longer term bear.

The zones for today:

80.9-81.42
80.5-80.65
79.7-80.3
78.4-79
77.1-78
76.5-76.9
76.08-76.31
75.1-75.46
74.2-74.51

daddy 

Bias: neutral Yesterday the crude dropped, as anticipated Overnight the bears pulled the price to a new low, 73.25, but the bulls managed to get back above the previous close. The fall was big yesterday, but it seems the bulls came back, so I’m neutral today. Since it’s Friday, it might be a sideways/small correction today …. or not Haven’t got the foggiest what happens today, but still a longer term bear.

…so it was a small correction.
According to how the zones played out, I can nearly hear @matevisky ’s voice: „Man, why don’t you trade your zones from zone to zone?”