Why i did not take long around 80.40 but took a long around 81 this afternoon? " It's all about probabilities" Mark Douglas.


CORRECTION: Note on the chart should read l holding long for test of 82 to 82.50 area. Not 83. 83 and beyond will be nice but based of probabilities i am not counting on it for today.

mfbreakout 

Euro short. How to not get trapped within games being played by algos, hft, forex desk, brokers etc.. ? Try to step out of areas where everyone is.

hi what is ib time here in 6e are you using?

thanks

alejo 

hi what is ib time here in 6e are you using? thanks

By IB i guess you mean Opening Range (OR). I use 30 minutes starting 2.30 am USA eastern time. However, i am not trading Forex for day trading. Mostly as swing trading. Even for day trading, it takes 3-8 hours of hold time to get paid unless there is some pending news.

2 shorts in TF with painfully long hold time.

A special kind of day- my term for such a day is " GOTTCHA " trading day. This kind of day used to be very frustrating day for me with lot's of Mikey Mouse trades with more paid in commission than profits for the day. One can spend days and weeks trying to come up why this happens and that happens on such days.

I got some sense as to how to trade such days after i understood the concept of RANDOMNESS within ATR. Per my way of looking at such days there are no 1:1 risk reward set ups on days like today ( i do not believe in them for any other day also).
My 2nd rule for a day like today is to pick one side and then hold till position get paid.

I took long aaround 80.82 and held it for 40 minutes to get paid. I would have added to long position if CL had pulled back to 80.30 to 80 area into close. There are no precise levels, just probabilities.

Out flat 81.18. I have not taken any trades in TF except 2 shorts. First one around 1116 and 2nd one around 1114. There is no need to trade when an index is trading within 5 points range. As usual traers are doing more analysis of this tight range day than the day calls for.

Why i stopped looking at smaller time frame charts? If you ever feel like you are trying to catch a jumping rabbit while trading it's a clear sign you are trying to trade against computers/algos/HFT etc.

Which of the traders within you will have contol of your trading on Monday, Tuesday etc.

Why Traders Keep Losing Money- Brett Steenbarger.

"Imagine a mutual fund run by several money managers. Some of these managers are relatively astute and quite attentive to market data and patterns. Others tend to take their eye off the market ball and consistently lose money. The overall performance of the fund, averaging the returns of these managers, is mediocre, as the losses of the poorly performing managers cancel out the gains of the astute ones.

What would you do if you were the chief executive officer (CEO) of this fund?

Easy, you say. You would identify the successful managers and place all the money in their hands. You would either fire the unsuccessful ones or ensure that they couldn't make final decisions about the investment of funds.

Now imagine that, within yourself, there are actually several different traders, each of whom takes control of your account for a period of time each day. One or two of these traders are relatively astute; others are downright destructive. Your overall performance suffers as a result. As Chief Executive Observer of your own account, what should you do?

...If you harbor multiple traders within you--some careful, some impulsive, some successful, some losing--your first task is to avoid labeling these traders and instead take an Observing stance. You need to figure out why these lousy traders within you are trading! They evidently are not trading simply for the monetary reward; if that were the case, they would never overrule the successful traders within you. The chances are good that they are trading to achieve something other than a good return on equity: a sense of excitement, a feeling of self-esteem, or an imposed self-image.

You do not fail at trading because you are masochistic or because you love failure or feel you deserve defeat. Rather, you sabotage your trading because you have different facets to your personality, each with its own needs, each clamoring for access to the trading account. Your trading suffers because you are not always trading with the equity stake firmly in mind. In a strange way, a losing trade can be a success to that part of you that is, for example, looking for excitement--not profits--from the markets."

mfbreakout 

Which of the traders within you will have contol of your trading on Monday, Tuesday etc. Why Traders Keep Losing Money- Brett Steenbarger. ... "Now imagine that, within yourself, there are actually several different traders, each of whom takes control of your account for a period of time each day. One or two of these traders are relatively astute; others are downright destructive. Your overall performance suffers as a result. As Chief Executive Observer of your own account, what should you do? ...If you harbor multiple traders within you--some careful, some impulsive, some successful, some losing--your first task is to avoid labeling these traders and instead take an Observing stance. You need to figure out why these lousy traders within you are trading! "

I seem to have a few traders in me who are lunatics....

Thanks for quoting this -- it's so very damn true.

Bob.

bobwest 

I seem to have a few traders in me who are lunatics.... Thanks for quoting this -- it's so very damn true. Bob.

I also had multiple traders within me. I took care of them by getting out of Mickey Mouse, shorter time frame trades. I used to hold trades for 1 minute, 5 minutes, then 15 minutes, now avearge hold time is an hour or so. As i started getting away from smaller time frame trades lunatics kept disappering.

KC is getting ready for a long set up.