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Trading ES with Depth of Market


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Trading ES with Depth of Market

 
 isla 
Kyiv/Ukraine
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: AMP/CQG
Trading: Indexes, CL
Posts: 114 since Jun 2012
Thanks Given: 79
Thanks Received: 174

Got a lesson on not going too crazy while trading today. Market was thinner, which added some pressure I guess.

First two trades were according to the plan. Direction was clear, management was trickier. Both trades were based on volume clusters break on the way up.
Trade1:

Trade2:




Now, the third trade was a mistake. I got angry after the second loss (happens) and chucked my mouse (also happens) both breaking it and accidentally putting myself into a new short. I didn't have a shortcut key set up to flatten the position, so while I was struggling to fix the mouse my stop got hit.

Normally, when I see that my exit wasn't optimal (second trade) I re-enter around the same price. So should have been a close to scratch day.

Definitely disappointed, but it is just one day. I set my daily stop limit at around 15 ticks (which I reached), and considering the circumstances, decided to just watch the rest of action.

This was the first time my physical reaction actually affected my PnL. Mistake noted, another learning experience.

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 isla 
Kyiv/Ukraine
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: AMP/CQG
Trading: Indexes, CL
Posts: 114 since Jun 2012
Thanks Given: 79
Thanks Received: 174

Well, if yesterday I felt some pressure because of slightly thinner market, today I actually felt a bit scared

Not much volume in the DOM required some adjustments to trade selection and, more importantly, high degree of alertness in trade management.





After my exit, I started thinking that today will be, what I call, a thin market/small range day. Relative volume turned lower and there weren't many participants in the DOM. To me it means unfavourable trading conditions and I just stay out.

Essentially this type of trading is characterized by low volatility. Since May I've been testing a possible short trade in VIX on days like this, because I noticed that this behaviour persists sometimes for hours. Looks promising, but the sample size is very small so far.

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 isla 
Kyiv/Ukraine
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: AMP/CQG
Trading: Indexes, CL
Posts: 114 since Jun 2012
Thanks Given: 79
Thanks Received: 174


Market conditions are similar to yesterday's first hour or so of trading. Unless this range breaks strongly, I'll be just watching.

Started this thread
 
 isla 
Kyiv/Ukraine
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: AMP/CQG
Trading: Indexes, CL
Posts: 114 since Jun 2012
Thanks Given: 79
Thanks Received: 174

Wanted to quote this post from iqgod's journal. Thought it will be useful for me (and maybe for someone else) to have it here. Many great points I can relate to.

Thank you iqgod!


Quoting 
1. Love the Process of trading.

Trading is embracing a lifestyle, an attitude, and accepting the long journey where change and uncertainty are constant companions. Expect to sweat out during the learning part, and master many things before seeing peaceful days roll by.

The key here is: Have no desire to act inappropriately. Love and be proud of all the times when you consistently are able to not have any desire to act inappropriately, notice that this happens when you are engaged in the process instead of focusing on rewards/reprimands.

2. Patience and Inaction are Your Edge

Avoid taking trades, playing at all unless your mind calmly notices that it is time to act. Doing nothing is trading (more so than taking marginal trades and then hoping, coaxing and praying).

Patience and inaction arise from Discipline (not from Sloth). Wait until there is money lying in the corner and all you have to do is pick it up. Once you know what you are looking for then wait in preparedness for that to materialize. Not taking a single trade all day is perfectly acceptable.

To repeat the key again: Have no desire to act inappropriately. This comes easier when you are in complete immersion, in the flow, in the zone - these being alternate terms for Being in The Present Moment where time fades, hence impatience does not exist.


3. Don't make much ado about being patient and disciplined

Make your ego so small, so minuscule, and so elastic that it is blessed with agility and flows naturally with the market and be peaceful with the fact that you are achieving your goal - namely that of being here to make money and getting paid for having an edge. The call of sirens being loudest when you are virtuous - as if the market owes you and wants to pay you; as if being a good tape-reader, patient and disciplined means 'you have arrived' - all these thoughts simply mean you are shifting focus away from the process and glamorizing it in itself. As a lifestyle change, remove the'I' from everything in life and be humble, helpful, kind and know your place in the universe is not in the center of it. Simple and frugal living, surrendering to some faith, and understanding that the order that move the markets is the same order than makes the earth spin,sun rise and seasons happen is the enlightenment that is always needed for trading.

4. Love thyself

Make peace with yourself. Place yourself in the best position to Give your Best; but also Forgive yourself for letting that trade slip away, for missing those zillion pips had you stayed in instead of exiting. Love yourself enough not to take marginal trades, revenge trades, or do any other thing that will diminish confidence in the Self or see yourself any lesser than the imperfect but yet so perfectly trustworthy being you are. Never hate yourself; this is the key to prevent depression, mania, hatred and irrationality. Only allow the clear stream of reason to run the forefront of your engine - be your boss by reasoning with yourself and not tolerating lapses of discipline, never adding to losers, not exiting a perfectly working trade, never slack on studying and improving. Do not substitute attitude for work, do not fool yourself into procrastinating by trading needs a special elevated mood or that one needs to meditate one's self into some magical zone. By doing the necessary preparations in whatever mood you are in, you make sure that you do not refuse the pips that the market offers NOW; do not foolishly say that this Now is not right for me to make money, I'll have that Now tomorrow or (insert time period). Days turn into weeks turn into months and you will find yourself looking back at a series of days when you were 'broken' and realize it was all a game of pretend and excusitis. The other end of this is wanting to win Now and seeing things that haven't materialized yet (good trades where there are marginal ones or sometimes no setups at all) - this is assigning more importance to the I, making it bigger and more bloated than it really is - the I is not important, and the I needs to submit itself to the market's agenda and flow with it, and get out if that isn't happening. Not getting excited is a part of loving yourself and taking I out of the equation. In this game you win when you surrender.

As Mark Douglas says, be the observer of the I - catch yourself thinking about committing a trading error - if you don't then your realizations come after the experience.

5. The Journal is your ultimate line of defense

Record your losses most of all. The journal allows you to judge whether you erred or whether you took the best decisions in the light of available information, but the bad result was simply due to variance. Anyone reading your journal should be able to follow your line of reasoning and follow the same steps that you would later.

A journal does not ask 'What do you do in this situation?'

A journal asks The Relevant Question 'What all aspects have you considered when you approach this situation before determining what is to be done?' and also records the honest answer.


6. Be natural. Forcing yourself is suicide

The mind has a muscle for self-regulatory behavior. That muscle has limited strength and energy and needs building up, conservation. As we trade and take decision after decision, the resource is weak and tired and depleted. Removing the I allows pure strength to be fed directly this muscle, adding I cramps it and restricts it. Nevertheless lot of screen time is akin to a workout and you become capable of sustaining more of its continued use. Know where your meter stands and be prepared to walk away when you realize that further decisions on a tired muscle may bring the weight crashing down and cost you dearly. The players who simply play defensively break even, the ones who play the A game become profitable. It is simple, difficult.


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 slowsie 
winston salem nc/ usa
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: MT4&5, NT7&8,Sierra Chart
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Thank's for posting that quote. I need to take that to heart

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 isla 
Kyiv/Ukraine
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: AMP/CQG
Trading: Indexes, CL
Posts: 114 since Jun 2012
Thanks Given: 79
Thanks Received: 174

While there is no escape from uncertainty of outcomes in the markets, a trader should try to eliminate/reduce uncertainty in his own reasoning and actions. Preparation and repetition are tools that enable strengthening of one's views. But this post is for people who, for any reason, don't feel comfortable about what they've been doing and are willing to try something new.

There are two sides to trading: one is your method, and the second one is you as a performer. At the same time, psychological problems that affect trading performance can be roughly divided into two categories: discipline problems and trust problems. While interconnected, these causes of frustration have their own peculiarities. Discipline, in my view, can be mastered by observing own behaviors and reactions, and working towards eliminating harmful habits. The goal is clear, or becomes clear after a period of keeping a trading journal. Trust or belief in your method, on the other hand, is a bit trickier I think.

I want to approach this question not just from an abstract point of view, but would like you to really think about what would make you feel confident about your decision making process in the markets. For some it may be statistically significant back-tested data. Some get into methods that have wide following on forums and keep their faith while they see other people's success. I would like to share my view.

This post is not intended to be negative or even critical about other methods and practices. Anyone is more than welcome to point out mistakes in my judgement.

I believe that any trading idea should make sense in order to be trusted. I never really got into trying indicators, because I think they have no causality with future price development. I struggled a lot with implementing price action principles, and while I agree that context is extremely important, I don't agree with predicting the context. Market is in a trend/trading range/trending trading range until it's not. Price action reading (as I see it) suggests a story based on subjective notions of context and signal patterns. It is useful to think about trapped traders, but I couldn't convince myself/find supporting evidence of a chart helping me to see these situations.

I'm sure that majority of people who will read this post have some understanding of market structure, how liquidity and volume move the price. If you look at the DOM and see 10 lots five levels deep on both bids and offers, there is no argument your 2 ticks stop will be of no use (talking about liquid futures here). At the same time, if average volume of a bid and offer is in thousands, playing for a 50 ticks move is a low probability trade to say the least. It's not about possibilities and statistics, it's about aligning your expectations with events which are normal to your market.

At the same time, when you see volume trading at a price, you see exactly how many people are entering/exiting their positions. If this volume is exceptional, you can be sure other people will be paying attention to that price/prices.

The basic idea behind watching the DOM, volume and order flow is this: if you bought, you want to see more buying, you want prices to progress upwards, you don't want sellers stepping in and absorbing buyers (which may accumulate trapped traders). When momentum is out it is reasonable to become cautious and to look for reasons to exit. Market is not giving you any supportive information to stick to your original position, so be alert. (Opposite is true for short trades). Trade management is as important as trade selection. It's all about being in the NOW. Overall, the process itself must bring clarity and induce confidence in one's actions.

This kind of reasoning, even though oversimplified, once made sense to me and I hope someone can take it as a starting point for own research. There is loads of more detailed information on jigsawtrading website (I have no connection to them).

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 isla 
Kyiv/Ukraine
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: AMP/CQG
Trading: Indexes, CL
Posts: 114 since Jun 2012
Thanks Given: 79
Thanks Received: 174

To be totally honest, not sure I would have gotten filled on my last trade if it was live. I know that at least a couple of hundred contracts traded there, but then I refreshed traded quantities on my DOM. Well, it is what it is:



Trade1: momentum volume cluster break.
Trade2: will skip similar setups in the future. We traded some volume at 1940.50 on the initial bounce off the lows and I thought it may cap the upside. Location was worse because of a possible climax after Trade1.
Trade3: same idea as Trade2.
Trade4: same as Trade2 and Trade3. Volume at 1946.75 and 1947.00 as resistance.

Started this thread
 
 isla 
Kyiv/Ukraine
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: AMP/CQG
Trading: Indexes, CL
Posts: 114 since Jun 2012
Thanks Given: 79
Thanks Received: 174

Quite a sticky day for my style of trading. Moves were slow but market was thick, so there was some volume to lean on.

After relative volume dropped to current levels I decided to wrap it up:



Both trades were attempts to front-run a breakout. ES was too slow to take off hence the results.

This is why I got into the first trade:



We ticked through the previous high and pulled back to the POC at 72.75. Then we pushed into highs again but stopped at 73.50. You can see that bid absorbed over a thousand contracts and one of the sell orders was 105 lots. I tried to bid 73.50 but they didn't trade much so I hit into 73.75s. Had my sell limit at 75.25 but got out when sellers came in.

Started this thread
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 isla 
Kyiv/Ukraine
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: AMP/CQG
Trading: Indexes, CL
Posts: 114 since Jun 2012
Thanks Given: 79
Thanks Received: 174

Trades today:



Trade1: 1 point pullback after selling momentum at the open. Was aiming for 4t but didn't get a fill and then my OCOs got executed at the same second when I was exiting, so had an additional scratch.
Trade2, Trade3: front-running a BO. I thought ES may stay in a narrow range, so switched to SIM to try out some new ideas and forgot to switch back to the Combine account. Noticed only after my exit. A bit silly.
Trade4: minor reversal. Trading range day, we broke out but many people got stuck around 1982.75 area.

Started this thread
 
 isla 
Kyiv/Ukraine
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: AMP/CQG
Trading: Indexes, CL
Posts: 114 since Jun 2012
Thanks Given: 79
Thanks Received: 174


A great post by Dr Brett Steenbarger:

"...As Angela Duckworth's research attests, sheer grit--the ability to persevere under adverse conditions--is a central element of success across career fields and performance domains.

The notion of grit has so captured the interest and attention of students of success that Duckworth's second factor has gone largely unnoticed: self-control. Duckworth explains: "Self-control is the voluntary regulation of behavioral, emotional, and attentional impulses in the presence of momentarily gratifying temptations or diversions." Grit refers to the ability to persevere over time. Self-control is more of a moment-to-moment, day-to-day phenomenon: the ability to resist temptation and distraction and stay focused on bigger picture goals.

Indeed, Duckworth's review finds that self-control is as central to positive life outcomes as such variables as general intelligence or socioeconomic status. Interestingly, not all who possess self-control also display grit and not all gritty people exhibit strong self-control. It is the two in concert--the ability to weather temptations in the short run and setbacks in the long run--that appear to predict success.

When you see how grit and self-control work together, you can appreciate why so many successful traders are process-driven traders. By focusing on the process of good trading rather than the daily outcomes, traders rehearse both self-control *and* grit. In other words, a process orientation to trading is daily training in the dynamics of success, a kind of behavioral priming. By defining and following a robust process during good times and bad, we literally train ourselves in grit and self-control."

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Last Updated on October 12, 2015


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