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Very cool to see POT with a different bar type and a different market. Do you plan to keep observing it?
I marked up your chart with a few trade ideas. One thing I've noticed is when you get POT signals yet the market continues higher then it's due for a reversal. This is why the POT signal has to be taken into context with other setups, sometimes it takes several to turn the market. If you're scalping you could even take those smaller signals.
The VIX seems indicating a reversal in the stock market is likely:
The circled areas are at option expiration. The April VIX calls are 11x more expensive than the puts. That means options traders have priced in a likely rise in the VIX. Very likely actually. And a rise in the VIX means an increase in volatility which is usually a correction in the market.
Let's see if it plays out. I'm still holding my short. The TPO gave a signal on the daily chart, now we need a LL for the signal to be confirmed which would be the entry trigger.
I entered "early" because I'm had other bearish setups in place. Notice uptick momentum turned down (I posted the algorithm for this one in the Volume Breakdown thread in the elite section, I'm hoping someone will write this for GOMCD, it's very simple to do and I love this indicator), and there is bearish divergence with the Better Momentum. RSI 2 is at 99. The only thing bullish I see is the 45 min cycle is about to enter an up phase. But since the 45min chart has already turned up it's likely that this signal is late and has in fact already taken place. A break below the signal line would give cycle setup #2.
Today is options expiration day so things can get crazy. It's also rollover day for the dax. I'm going to be more conservative today. Good trading to you.
Hello cunparis,
you wanted others to share trades with POT, so I enclose the chart of yesterday morning, SbsRenko 5t. It is from the hindsight and how it could have prevented me from being on the wrong side. I was thinking the market would go through the resistence at points 1 and 2 in the direction of VWAP but it was too early and POT had clear warning signals. Then it picked up very nicely the bottom at point nr.3. My real entry long was early on bar with nr.4 but I didn't hold long enough again :-(, so I ended up barely possitive. Definitely I'm not the one to learn from, still making stupid errors on daily bases.
Edit: now I noticed that the nr.2 in the SbsRenko chart is at the wrong place, it should be on the peek three bars to the right
first dax trade just didn't feel right so I bailed. intuition served me well. to me this is the hardest part of trading, managing the trade to minimize risk. I think I'm making progress. although sometimes I bail and price goes on to hit my target. but better safe than sorry.
2nd trade was pretty cool because I saw my setup despite the very large run down. I nailed that one. and it just dropped down since I took the image so intuition served me well again. I feel like I am starting to get the hang of reading the order flow.
+200 euros so far.
At this point I need to start thinking of my daily goal. a few times now i've made 200-300 euros and then given it back. so i'm thinking a daily goal around 200 euros would be a good start. I also need a daily tilt.
