LogicalTrader 

Placed the order at 93.78, as it was about to be filled, I cancelled it for reasons I cannot explain.

Sry to say that, but I know the reason and to be honest, you know the reason as well.

I call it FEAR and if you do not start to stick to your plan, your fear will grow more and more.

You give a single trade too much value. Who cares about one trade? The sum is much more important.

The only way to learn it is sticking to your plan and trade it!


Happy trading.

Balanar 

Sry to say that, but I know the reason and to be honest, you know the reason as well. I call it FEAR and if you do not start to stick to your plan, your fear will grow more and more. Happy trading.

Thanks. I wont let it grow. I understand what you are saying.

LogicalTrader 

Placed the order at 93.78, as it was about to be filled, I cancelled it for reasons I cannot explain.

Thanks for this insight into this methodology. It is very illuminating, though my method is different and I need NOT to slip between 2 stools.
I commiserate with you missing that trade. I was eyeing it too but switched attention to NQ and missed them both! Lesson there.
Did you notice the 5 wave move down during the London session of almost equal amounts (it just spilled into US RTH)? Might it have helped? Check out the 15 min. W1 35t, W3 40t and W5 42t and US couldn't take it lower.

Keep going. You are doing great.

jmsUK 

Did you notice the 5 wave move down during the London session of almost equal amounts (it just spilled into US RTH)? Might it have helped?

I wasnt counting the waves but I noticed the pullback to Euro OR low and the formation of a Euro A' down. This actually got me confused because now it was an A down but it was still above the daily pivot. I was unprepared for this so couldnt gather enough conviction to take the trade. Obviously, I know what to do the next time this happens

LogicalTrader 

Monthly pivot range for Dec has been established: MP High: 93.65 MP Low: 93.32 A close above 93.65 or below 93.32 is significant tomorrow and I will be watching this range and how price reacts here. First/Second day of the month has set the tone for the rest of the month on several occasions in 2013

I dont think I will ever forget this day. What an experience! I dont care that I missed the trade. Whats more important is that the hypothesis has been correct for several days now although I have only been posting it since yesterday.

And its not just one thing. ACD has so many setups/variables that come into play differently each day. To be able to see them beforehand requires a lot of practice and that is why I coded most of them so I dont have to think too much. Over time, I will know which ones are most common etc. and when to look for which setup. Like today was the second trading day of the month which is the first trading day of the month after the monthly pivot is determined and it did today what it has done in the past 2 years on 75-80% of the occasions. I wouldnt be surprised if 93.67 remains the low of the month for several days now if not for the whole month

I am starting to deviate from the plan now. Took a short for a scalp. It was high probability etc etc but its a deviation from the plan so no more trades today. Got some more programming to do.

Great day for ACD today!

Another ACD concept for long term traders is to trade long term pivots like the 3 day pivot which I track, weekly pivot or a 2 week pivot and also the Monthly pivot.

If my understanding is correct then based on the chart I posted yesterday, many long term traders who are short since October or even September, should be getting out if we see 96.16 and above which was the November MP High.

If that happens, we could see another surge upwards because that would be uber bullish. Currently, price has stopped 1 tick below the November high.

LogicalTrader 

I wasnt counting the waves but I noticed the pullback to Euro OR low and the formation of a Euro A' down. This actually got me confused because now it was an A down but it was still above the daily pivot. I was unprepared for this so couldnt gather enough conviction to take the trade. Obviously, I know what to do the next time this happens

You have to be careful using WTI as a proxy for Euro OR. Mark Fisher clearly emphasized in his book one has to track

an instrument where it is domiciled. For Euro Brent is the precursor of WTI moves if one wants to use that strategy. Nothing wrong in testing both Brent and WTI but i was using that strategy my bet will be on Brent.

mfbreakout 

You have to be careful using WTI as a proxy for Euro OR. Mark Fisher clearly emphasized in his book one has to track an instrument where it is domiciled. For Euro Brent is the precursor of WTI moves if one wants to use that strategy. Nothing wrong in testing both Brent and WTI but i was using that strategy my bet will be on Brent.

Thanks MFB. I am already doing that since you last pointed me in this direction. I have been working with a delayed feed for brent which is not working. I am going to get the realtime feed so that I can analyze this better.

Thanks for the support.

LogicalTrader 

Another ACD concept for long term traders is to trade long term pivots like the 3 day pivot which I track, weekly pivot or a 2 week pivot and also the Monthly pivot. If my understanding is correct then based on the chart I posted yesterday, many long term traders who are short since October or even September, should be getting out if we see 96.16 and above which was the November MP High. If that happens, we could see another surge upwards because that would be uber bullish. Currently, price has stopped 1 tick below the November high.

Well, if today does not make one a believer of ACD, I dont know what does.

Still have a lot of work to do regarding my psyche. Have noted several points to ponder when tweaking plan this weekend:

• What to do when minimum R:R has not been achieved and order flow strongly suggests (both algos against trade) getting out? Happened with both losing trades and the BE trade today. More importantly, did not happen with the winning trade and the "would have been" winning trade.
• Consider not moving stop at all - be it a scalp or a trend trade so that there is no confusion.

I saw the context right today also. I think I am doing a good job with the context. I was short biased in the morning. Then, as ADR and time of day approached and saw the lack of energy in the downward pushes, I obtained a rotational bias and attempted longs. Execution is still killing me but I am very close so got to keep up the effort.

Todays trades:



Edit: Just realized that I forgot to modify the US OR time today. This totally changes things. 2nd time I have done this.

Edit: US ORL is 96.54. Even if I knew it at the time, there would be double conviction behind the longs later on in the session due to a failed A down with ADR in favor. I would probably not have taken the 2nd short in the morning thinking the US ORL was 96.87. It is what it is. Learn and grow.