SidJ 

I just read your book cover-to-cover and will definitely be re-reading parts, as it is one of the better books I've come across for developing a trading system. Thanks for writing it. It is puzzling that the returns for Euro Day & Night are flat. During the backtesting & walk-forward, there must have been times when the market was flat...can you isolate these times and figure what your expected returns should be for flat markets or is it not worth it? I just wonder if market volatility is the issue or maybe something else.

There is also a thread for the book:

Book review: Building Algorithmic Trading Systems w/Kevin Davey Congratulations to Kevin Davey kevinkdog on his new book: 204,203,200_PIsitb-sticker-arrow-click,TopRight,35,-76_AA300_SH20_OU01_.jpg You guys can use this thread to discuss the book. I also highly recommend watching the webinars on futures.io …

Please post a review.

Mike

budfox 

I also read all 15 Steps of how to backtest in your blog.

Does someone has a link to that article? I couldn't find it on KJ Trading Systems .

Jura 

Does someone has a link to that article? I couldn't find it on KJ Trading Systems .

These steps were in a blog I used to write: A Robot Trader Becomes Human


I need to move them back home...

Thanks for asking!

kevinkdog 

These steps were in a blog I used to write: A Robot Trader Becomes Human

Thanks Kevin.

For other interested readers, the 15 steps:

1. Have a trading plan.
2. Rate of return.
3. Drawdown.
4. Winpercentage etc.
5. Other considerations.
6. The trading strategy.
7. Conduct preliminary research.
8. Have positive expectancy.
9. Backtesting the right way.
10. Incubate.
11. Know your exit point.
12. Follow the plan.
13. Don't overleverage.
14. Execute flawlessly.
15. Review and monitor.

Quoting 

I need to move them back home...

If you do, it would be interesting to reflect on them, such as what you would do differently compared to two years ago, which things didn't change, and whether you perhaps learned new steps along the way.

Not many good things to say about the Euro day and night system performance this past quarter. Only 2 trades in the day strategy for the month of September, which is a lot less than normal.

Not a very good quarter for the combined system, as shown by the purple line. Performance like this is why I advocate having many strategies to trade. Some will underperform (like this one), and hopefully some better performers will make up for it.

Going forward this will be the only graph I'll show. It tells almost the whole story, in my opinion...

It's been over a year. Have you given up on this system or will you keep trading it?

deaddog 

It's been over a year. Have you given up on this system or will you keep trading it?

Way back when, I had stated that I would be stopping when the single contract drawdown of $5000 was hit. It looks like that that will happen soon, since I am only a losing trade or 2 away from that mark.

So, barring some miracle, it looks like this system will be put back into incubation. I'll still track it, and if/when Euro volatility picks up, maybe the performance will pick up and I'll trade it again.

kevinkdog 

Way back when, I had stated that I would be stopping when the single contract drawdown of $5000 was hit. It looks like that that will happen soon, since I am only a losing trade or 2 away from that mark. So, barring some miracle, it looks like this system will be put back into incubation. I'll still track it, and if/when Euro volatility picks up, maybe the performance will pick up and I'll trade it again.

Why are you waiting for another couple losses?

deaddog 

Why are you waiting for another couple losses?

Because I follow my rules.

kevinkdog 

Because I follow my rules.

That is the same rationalization I use.

I see this lot. A trader in a trade will say that he is expecting the trade to go against him yet he stays with the trade.

I do it myself at times out of fear of being wrong. The what if I give up now and the market turns. It is why I’m a rules based trader but when you think about it the market is offering an opportunity that we as traders are not taking advantage of.