I hope readers understand that this drill serves a purpose..... practice, practice, practice - practice so hard that recognizing the market imbalances in realtime becomes second nature and trading becomes automatic - much like driving on the Indian roads

The most important thing about this chart is that it is ranging and not trending.

That alone should make me get my box tool out and start looking for Inside Range Breaks!

At the last moment I noticed that the market was in a huge trading range I if I would have taken that RB setup I would have bought at the high of the range.

Hence I declined the offer of buying the Range Break as price moved above it to the long side.

Even though the trend was bullish the signs of resistance are now overwhelming.

However should I blindly trade the break of a Triple M top or Inverted H & S to the downside?

No, because that is the mark of FOMO (fear of missing out).

Here I am waiting for a block break of sorts to give me a clear short into this reversal.

If I can do this in real time on a tiny account then I can do this in realtime in a TST combine.

As I finished typing the previous post i suddenly was rewarded with why waiting for a proper setup and buildup is so important.




If I had blindly taken that short just because a triple topping pattern formed.... that would have been asking for a good whack.

If I would have had entered at 1.3128 my 10-tick stop would have been run over just now!

I am reminded by the importance of NOT frontrunning a setup.

>>>>> Stop reading this post at this point.... <<<<<

Here I compliment myself privately.

Are there any learnings for me?

- Betting on reversals is a losing proposition. Trends continue so far because too many people bet on reversals!

- Could I have taken the other side - it would have been so profitable......

The last statement was always dangerous thinking for me.

It presumes a delusion I had long held before I became a profitable trader... the delusion that I CAN PREDICT WHAT THE MARKET IS GOING TO DO NEXT.

Let me say it again.... I do not know what the market is going to do next. Even though I risk real money on a great setup I do not know the outcome of my next trade.

This is more of a reminder to myself yet again.

In this journal you will find me complimenting myself quite a bit frequently.

Always remember that I will only compliment myself because I followed my trading plan well and executed well by following good trading discipline.

I will never compliment myself based on the outcome of any trade. (e.g. hurrah my last trade was a winner etc must not be found in these pages... send me a remote butt kick if I ever do that).

The fact that prices move just enough to oblige a trader to profit from a lapse of trading dscipline is part and parcel of the market's way of setting him/her up for a gigantic failure.

Habits matter more than profits.

Did price break the range or did it not?

This question leads to the Advanced Range Break Setup short I just took:

After getting into the ARB short I immediately found myself taking heat on the trade i.e. the trade started as a quick loser by travelling across to the top of the three pip range.

However the target was achieved without any further redness:

The scalps that I am firing mean that the average holding time of winners is less than three minutes.

This clearly means that I have to cut short all losers in a time bound manner.

What that cutoff is I still have no idea.

Because some winners take their sweet time to hit the targets and they eventually do so.

This is a note regarding combine statistics.