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Gozilla's Rough road to consistency.


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Gozilla's Rough road to consistency.

  #1 (permalink)
 
Gozilla's Avatar
 Gozilla 
Aberdeen, Scotland
 
Experience: Beginner
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Broker: Infinity/Transact
Trading: YM
Posts: 216 since Jun 2013
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Hello,

I have finally taken the plunge to commit myself to keeping a journal chronicling my day to day thoughts, actions, reactions the good the bad and the ugly.

So a brief history, It starts off how most of these stories in trading seem to start off, struck up a conversation with someone who "dabbled" in the markets and this conversation initially had my interest but when the talk turned to the money at stake it got my attention, of course you only seem to hear about how much was made over x amount of time and it was these stories that set me on my path to easy money, or so i thought.

As is often the case I have blown a number of accounts along the way, tried countless strategies, swamped my charts with indicators and moving averages that only served to confuse me, traded different markets and instruments over the years and still failed to be consistent.

At present I have stripped out my charts price and volume is all I use, Sticking with some basic TA support, resistance a few patterns I'm familiar with, trends etc, just trying to keep it simple for the time being. I only trade the YM 1 contract at a time for the time being stats showed I had the best results on this and I stick to one instrument so it has my attention throughout the day. (I'm easily distracted) Time frames I use 30 min for support and resistance 400tick/5min and 1 min from time to time (yes its noisy)

My biggest obstacle is in the mirror, Back testing and sim trading have good results, I believe in my analysis but I have some issues when pulling the trigger and over managing my trades, hopefully this journal will keep me accountable for my actions as well as my inaction's.

Be honest.
Gozilla

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  #3 (permalink)
 
Gozilla's Avatar
 Gozilla 
Aberdeen, Scotland
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker: Infinity/Transact
Trading: YM
Posts: 216 since Jun 2013
Thanks Given: 216
Thanks Received: 275


This is a recap of yesterdays action from my perspective.

Not sure if this will show up right with the charts but I will give it a shot.

1. Chart 400 Tick time frame, Became a little fixated with possible head and shoulder formation and was waiting at initial neckline about 15110 to enter short, Shorted @ 15106 looking for initial move to yesterdays low @ about 15080, after what seemed like a lot of bounces at 96 was unsure about further move down also realized at this point that 15120 may have been actual break and that a retest was looking likely. exited trade @ 15101

Lesson: Wait for the retest, sure it might not come back but it may offer safer trade instead of chasing the initial break.

2. Established trend underway shorted @15072 trendline touch and possible rejection target @ 15050, trade seemed to be down for bulk of the time as it was not moving away emotions set in and micro managed trade to death exit @ 15070.

Lesson: Trade was still safe and well away from stop after fifth touch use high at touch as stop then let trendline act as moving stop. Go with the flow on these!

Additions: The head and shoulders pattern was a good trade if adjusted for the higher neckline on the second shoulder would have hit target for 110 points, but realistically if I had entered it right I would have been chopped out for <20 points. The second shoulder on the 1 min time frame to me was H+S or inverse cup and handle I did not notice this as I was watching 400T and it was not so clear to me.

However I was watching the retest, the 2nd test and the 3rd test and could not act (analysis paralysis/fear) Decided to short the retest of the range break but it never came back. After the second trade felt my head was not in the game so called it quits for the day.

+7 its something

Is it too honest?
Gozilla



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  #4 (permalink)
 
ratfink's Avatar
 ratfink 
Birmingham UK
Market Wizard
 
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Gozilla View Post
Is it too honest?

We can never be too honest with ourselves in this game, or golf, or life. Welcome the journal!

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  #5 (permalink)
 
DarkPoolTrading's Avatar
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Welcome and well done for starting a journal.

Nice post analysis. Good questions that you're asking yourself.

I look forward to following your journal.

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  #6 (permalink)
 
Gozilla's Avatar
 Gozilla 
Aberdeen, Scotland
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker: Infinity/Transact
Trading: YM
Posts: 216 since Jun 2013
Thanks Given: 216
Thanks Received: 275

Another day of great potential results in mediocre trading for a small profit but a profit none the less, so got to take some positives where I can I guess.

I will go over the trades to begin with then cover my thoughts on the rest of the day to see what I could have done differently.

1. After watching price bounce nicely off of 15028 at previous resistance I considered approaching this as a double top trade, I waited for it to come back up and as it struggled to cross short was initiated @ 15023 very sluggish on the trigger, strangely I considered previous low @90 as target, stopped out @ 15032.

Lesson: Bad trade, By this time it's safe to assume we are in the midst of an uptrend, shorting in an uptrend mid channel, seriously! I am not enlightened enough to take on marginal trades like this without very good reasons.

2. Watched price rally after breaking wedge, Had quick look at support and resistance and for trendlines, created additional trendline (in red) to link latter highs which linked up with price at resistance and a round number. Waited on rejection and shorted the move lower. Short @15089 stop @15101 target @15075 chose this as anything that looked smelled or sounded like support may throw a spanner in the works given I am short again in an uptrend. See previous resistance.

Lesson: For me good trade, Trade taken at extreme of channel (altered) left target alone once in, moved stop to high of previous candle as it moved south, planned the trade traded the plan.


Thoughts during the day.
Established lower trendline during premarket hours using parallel rays so upper line was waiting to be homed, Noticed H&S forming after open but ruled it out as I regularly get hacked to bits and stopped out for the day in the opening 30 minutes of trading. Watched price move to target (see chart) failed to short also set upper channel at this price. Again price pulled back to neckline I often treat prices as exact and not zones I botched going long thinking it was going lower and breaking established trend.

Rising wedge started to form and as I was unsure how to trade it sat on my hands and waited for the formation to break, but I did watch the multiple longs off the trendline and wished I was more confident or capable to trade within a formation. eventually broke to the upside hit resistance where I shorted dropped to target then came back up again, I really wanted to enter on double top formation but earlier DT burned me on that, quit trading for the day after this as I was getting a little tired and losing focus.


Final lesson: Take the opportunities as you see fit the market will let you know soon enough if you are right or wrong.

That was long winded.
Gozilla

I find it odd that I was bearish the whole day and only traded to the short side in what was a raging bull market, What I'm looking at and what I see seem to be two different things at times.

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  #7 (permalink)
 
Big Mike's Avatar
 Big Mike 
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You seem to place a great deal of emphasis on chart patterns (H&S, rising wedge, etc).

I am all for trading price action. Check this thread in fact:



But, I would urge a bit of caution on placing too much emphasis on traditional chart patterns, especially on an intraday level in futures.

It is very important that you find your own method that resonates with you, that you understand inside and out, and that you have complete faith/confidence in (having done your own research, homework) and trade it. So I am not trying to get you to follow someone or something else, but I think you should at the very least take a look in the Webinars section and watch the six or seven webinars from FT71 here on nexusfi.com (formerly BMT). Most of them touch on auction theory and volume profile, and since FT71 is a scalper, I think it will be very relevant for you. In my opinion, much more so than these chart patterns.

Mike

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  #8 (permalink)
 
Gozilla's Avatar
 Gozilla 
Aberdeen, Scotland
 
Experience: Beginner
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Broker: Infinity/Transact
Trading: YM
Posts: 216 since Jun 2013
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Big Mike View Post
You seem to place a great deal of emphasis on chart patterns (H&S, rising wedge, etc).

I am all for trading price action. Check this thread in fact:



But, I would urge a bit of caution on placing too much emphasis on traditional chart patterns, especially on an intraday level in futures.

It is very important that you find your own method that resonates with you, that you understand inside and out, and that you have complete faith/confidence in (having done your own research, homework) and trade it. So I am not trying to get you to follow someone or something else, but I think you should at the very least take a look in the Webinars section and watch the six or seven webinars from FT71 here on nexusfi.com (formerly BMT). Most of them touch on auction theory and volume profile, and since FT71 is a scalper, I think it will be very relevant for you. In my opinion, much more so than these chart patterns.

Mike


Hi,

Funnily enough I have gotten my hands on a couple of books over the last 2 or 3 months to read into this subject, (Steidlmayer on markets and Daltons mind over markets are these the right books for the job?) I'm making slow progress on it and have gone over a couple of FT71's webinars over the weekend and found them to be pretty good and cleared a few things up for me but its something I would have to watch alot of times over to get the best out of them (slow learner), I'm a long way from employing it as an approach in trading but it is a string I would like to add to my bow.

Gozilla

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  #9 (permalink)
 
Gozilla's Avatar
 Gozilla 
Aberdeen, Scotland
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker: Infinity/Transact
Trading: YM
Posts: 216 since Jun 2013
Thanks Given: 216
Thanks Received: 275

A little bit good a little bit bad, need to address a few flaws that I encountered on Friday that I have been giving some thought to over the weekend.

We will as ever start off with the trades in numbers and the misses as letters this time instead of 2 charts as there was not alot that I saw as the day progressed.

1. Premarket support becomes resistance, I am never quite sure how much emphasis to put on premarket or overnight activity but I decided to keep an eye on it after open. As price broke up I looked for a rejection and to my mind got it, entered short @15104 stop @ 15110 target was @15090 I considered 80 and at one point almost moved it but it was early and I wanted to lock in a quick profit. As it approached 90 my DOM went odd most of the orders came off with a lot of gaps was not sure if there was news out or broker feed mucking up. Almost bailed at this point but price got there just in time.

2. Price hit support and looked for it to reject again, Messed this one up in a couple of ways, was half asleep at the time and entered order to get in @15016 but order was to short rather than long also I was not considering short term possible resistance above at 15023, I immediately closed trade once I realised and was lucky to gain 2 ticks. Thought about reversing but I had made a mistake and was not keen on possibly making another so soon.

3. Had now established a trendline and was looking for a bounce, messed this one up aswell. Whilst watching it develop I was considering where to put stop and thought correct place was at 14975 at my point of entry I was not comfortable with such a wide stop (wide for me). Entry @14988 stop @14980 target @15005 I should have considered that 15000 may have been the most likely initial target but that was not until I was stopped.

A. Waited for price to approach entry and was evaluating stops and targets at the time when the rejection went off entry was set for 15128 but I had a winner already and was scared to give such a large chunk of it back on a wider stop 10-12 points I was at this time up a whole tick for the week so passed on the trade which is what I should have done for number 3.

B. Same story as usual though I could have entered I procrastinated too much and it was off like a shot, second time the stop was too wide for my liking so left it.

Lessons: I have been really careful in playing a more wait for confirmation approach to trading this week and it's been beneficial but I feel that there is a time and a place for it i.e 1,2 and 3 there is a time when you may have to jump the gun A and B but the thing is working out how to differentiate between the two. There are going to be plenty of good trades in the future that have wide stops, I have to either accept the risk or forget the trade.

Week Recap
Monday +4
Tuesday -29 got close to my daily stop @20 should have stopped took one more trade did not realise I had 2 on instead of 1 blew past my daily stop.
Wednesday +7
Thursday +5
Friday +8

So close to being positive but happy with the result as its far better than the last few weeks.

Gozilla

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  #10 (permalink)
 
Big Mike's Avatar
 Big Mike 
Manta, Ecuador
Site Administrator
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Swing Trader
 
Experience: Advanced
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Overnight levels are important, but not for resistance rather for targets. If you check the master homework thread you can get your bearings for that data.

Sent from my Nexus 4

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