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DTs Pre Market Prep

  #1011 (permalink)
 
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10th May



Its starting to look more like the market is rolling over. Volume is still weak at just over 1 million contracts.



We moved down to the top of the major distribution from last week (2387.25). So an eye on that area.



It's worth keeping an eye on yesterdays value low and low. If we are going to carry on down, then a move up off the open to a common level will help us on the way down.

Plan
- Slight short bias
- Looking for a move up to fail as the best opportunity of attracting downside volume
- We have moved up from 87.25 so far, so we may see speculators react to that
- So I'll let this play out for the first 15-20 minutes to see which way the wind blows


Weekly Numbers

Range - 2387.50 -> 2402.75
Value - 2392.75-> 2397.75
S1 - 2383, R1 - 2405.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2388.75 -> 2400
Value - 2393 -> 2398
Globex 2387.50 -> 2393.50

Settlement – 2393.25

Today -2387.25

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400

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  #1012 (permalink)
 
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11th May



Looks like this top is going to remain unresolved for a whole longer. Less than a million contracts traded. Doesn't mean it's not tradable, just means you need to apply range market techniques.



We can see we moved down to the top of last weeks distribution and speculators didn't want to sell into it. So now focus is on this weeks distribution 88.50-97.50.



Very low range day yesterday. We need to escape the weeks range - that could happen today or in days time, impossible to know.

Plan
- Low expectation day
- Look to fade 88.50 and 97.50
- better trade is a low volume push through 88.50 and 97.50 that then fails and sees price move back to the range
- On the lookout for a break which will be followed if it breaks with significant volume
- May take up knitting to avoid boredom trades

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2387.50 -> 2403.75
Value - 2392 -> 2397.50
S1 - 2383, R1 - 2405.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2387.50 / 2389.25 -> 2396.75
Value - 2392.25 -> 2396.25
Globex 2393 -> 2396

Settlement – 2393.25

Today - 2395.25

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400

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  #1013 (permalink)
 
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12th May



We seem to be in the holding pattern at the top. Still waiting for clarity.



We are now back into last weeks chop area, so we'll expand our presumed chop area today to 2379.25 to 2397.75.
Normally I'd avoid trading in the middle of that but as it's a decent sized range I do thing longs for completion of the range up to 97.75 are valid.

]

Yesterday we saw decent volume 1.3 million and by the fact the market ended up where we started. So it looks like day timeframe speculators were active.

Very low range day yesterday. We need to escape the weeks range - that could happen today or in days time, impossible to know.

Plan
- Speculators more active yesterday, watch for healthy volume today
- Look to fade 2379.25 to 2397.75.
- Look for continuation up to 97.75
- No shorts between 79.25 to 97.75
- better trade is a low volume push through 88.50 and 97.50 that then fails and sees price move back to the range
- On the lookout for a break which will be followed if it breaks with significant volume
- May take up knitting to avoid boredom trades

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2379 -> 2403.75
Value - 2389.50 -> 2397
S1 - 2383, R1 - 2405.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2379 -> 2393.50 / 2396
Value - 2384 -> 2392.50
Globex 2384.25 -> 2392.50

Settlement – 2391

Today - 2379.25, 2397.75.

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400

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  #1014 (permalink)
 
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15th May



Still waiting for resolution at this top, still trading low volume. Considering the date, we could end up with low volume for a few months.

Taking a step back, it's worth considering how you adjust to this. You can move to a more volatile instrument or you can take advantage of these conditions. After all if the market is predictably slow, then trade it like a predictably slow market.


Last week was the second week where the market traded in a single narrow distribution. Into this week, I'll be looking at 2385 and 2397.75 as the places to fade. And expecting it to be tough in the middle



We have held Fridays value high overnight. So now looking for the range to complete to the upside.

Plan
- Low expectation day
- Still waiting for a break of the last few weeks range
- In the meantime, looking to fade 2385 & 2397.75 or headfakes beyond those areas

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2379 -> 2403.75
Value - 2388.50 -> 2397
S1 - 2383, R1 - 2405.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2384.25 -> 2389.75 / 2391.50
Value - 2385.75 -> 2388.25
Globex 2388 -> 2394.50

Settlement – 2388.75

Today - 2385, 2397.75

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400

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  #1015 (permalink)
 
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16th May



Still at the top, still waiting for resolution, we moved back to the highs yesterday but couldn't make a new high. Overall volume as still quite poor.



Since the pop up we have managed to stay above the bulk of last weeks trading. For longs, we really need to hold this upper distribution, otherwise it's back to 2385, completion of the range to the downside.



Same picture here, we can see the pop up and then consolidation. If the consolidation area fails and we move down - we are back in the chop zone. If we move up, we have more chance of a pop.

Plan
- Low expectation day
- Better chance of a pop if we move upside, will look for a pullback long on a move up with decent volume
- To the downside, we are at the top of the range, safest shorts below 96.50

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2379 -> 2403.75
Value - 2388.50 -> 2397
S1 - 2383, R1 - 2405.50

Daily Numbers

Range - 2388 / 2392.25 -> 2402.25
Value - 2397.25 -> 2400.75
Globex 2396.25 -> 2400.25

Settlement – 2398.50

Today - 2385, 2397.75

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400

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  #1016 (permalink)
 
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17th May



A tight range yesterday as expected we still have light volume at around a million contracts and still around the highs we made on Monday.

Today we've dropped but it's all on low Globex volume.




Overnight, we hit the low of last week and we are now within the main distribution from last week. Normally, I'd say that the upside is likely to be choppy but the way we ran right through the middle of the range overnight means we can't rely on that.

Downside has good potential from the 'sky is falling' crowd too. People love a good panic and if we can push down today we are likely to see speculators happy to participate to the downside.



A good push down overnight often sees a 'rebalance' upside off the open. If not traded, any opening move is best ignored. For me, today is all about how the market will react to this push down. It's now 3.5 hours to the open, so we have to see how far down we remain as we get into the open.

I think getting excited about the move down at this point is premature. We are likely to put in another slow rangey day.

Plan
- No expectation day! Looking to see if this move down will trigger any volatility
- There's arguments for decent volatility upside and downside today
- Will give the market 15 mins to 'settle' and then play accordingly

Weekly Numbers

Range - 2379.25 -> 2404.50
Value - 2389.50 -> 2402.50
S1 - 2383, R1 - 2405.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2393.75 -> 2404.50
Value - 2396.25 -> 2400.25
Globex 2379.25 -> 2398

Settlement – 2397

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400

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  #1017 (permalink)
 
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18th May



Yesterday we had


Quoting 
Downside has good potential from the 'sky is falling' crowd too. People love a good panic and if we can push down today we are likely to see speculators happy to participate to the downside.

If we look at the overall volume yesterday, it was 2.8 million. This seems like a big jump to just be short term speculators. So on the lookout today for high volume as the day progresses. Not saying we must be in for a larger move, just be aware that volume was exceptional.

I still think that if we do move down we will probably just test the extreme of the range and move back up.



The weekly profile doesn't help much after yesterdays move.



yesterday finished with a the market marking out a late range 2354.75 to 2366.50. That's held overnight and we could quite easily revert to chop today and range around that.

Plan
- Let the volume guide
- Be wary that we may range around 54.75-66.50 - no trades between those prices unless off the open
- Any move outside that range to the downside will be followed (and maybe scaled into) if there is decent volume
- More wary of moves up above 66.50 and will proceed with more caution there

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2354.75 -> 2404.50
Value - 2372 -> 2404
S1 - 2383, R1 - 2405.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2354.75 -> 2383.75 / 2398
Value - 2362.50 -> 2375.50
Globex 2354.75-> 2367

Settlement – 2347.50

Today only - 2354.75 - 2366.50

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400

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  #1018 (permalink)
 
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19th May



High volume yesterday again. We got more volatility but no direction. Interest may taper today if nothing much happens.



Weekly profile doesn't help much as it's so elongated. There's not much preventing us moving back to 75 - which is the around where the low of the 3 week range was before we broke down on Wednesday.



Overnight, we've just rotated around the range from yesterday afternoon.

Plan
- Low expectation day
- Looking for trade below the weeks range to bring in sellers
- Otherwise biased long - first target 2375, then grind up to 2400 (but not necessarily all today)

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2344.50 -> 2404.50
Value - 2345.75 -> 2389.75
S1 - 2383, R1 - 2405.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2344.50 / 2351.50 -> 2375.25
Value - 2358 -> 2369
Globex 2361 -> 2370.50

Settlement – 2363.50

Today only - 2375

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400

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  #1019 (permalink)
 
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22nd May



Volume has been tailing off since the big down day last week. I still think that people will jump on any obvious signs of weakness. We are in the range still and last attempt to the low of the range fell short, so we should be on the lookout for signs of a failure before the range high.



Not much from the weekly profile - other than we are in the middle of last weeks range. Not a decisive location.



We had a late move down to 2378 on Friday - so an eye out for that. Other than that, we do have short term momentum upside but that's against the range high

Plan
- No bias, it's neutral
- Will jump on any obvious moves down (completion of the range upside)
- Other than that - looking for an early trade 'cause it really isn't the best location. Certainly no trades worth planning ahead to right now

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2344.50 -> 2404.50
Value - 2346.75 -> 2386.75
S1 - 2354, R1 - 2407

Daily Numbers
Range - 2361 / 2369.75 -> 2388
Value - 2378.25 -> 2385.75
Globex 2378.25 -> 2385.25

Settlement – 2381.50

Today only - 2378

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400

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  #1020 (permalink)
 
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23rd May



We are now at the top of the range again. So on the lookout for a rollover/headfake or potential move to new highs and a new range.

As before...


Quoting 

Which is saying it is going to go up or down.

Headfake - will pop the top and see absorption and sellers piling in
Break upside - will see a move up without the stopping volume we see in the headfake, for me the safest option is to go long when it falls back to the old high
Reversal down - any downside move with overwhelming volume

So while we are saying "it will go up or down" - we do have some things to look at for confirmation of which scenario is playing out.

In terms of "which prices to trade" - well - it's anywhere around here. No specific price, just specific action to look for.



From a weekly profile perspective, we still need to get past the top distribution - not really much of significance other that we can see this also puts us above the major distribution from the week before. So above 2401, there's nothing in terms of historical trade to 'slow us down'.



Yesterday was a very narrow day, yet with very decent volume. We do have upside momentum but against the range high. So no real bias.

Plan
- No bias but an open mind about where we could go - in particular keeping an open mind about the upside. It'll probably go down to the range low but we cannot discount a move to new highs. The trick is to play that as long as it's not a headfake.
- Early trades would be nice, especially if volatility carries over from yesterday.
- Otherwise, a wait and see for the range top to be resolved - then follow when it is

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2378.25 -> 2397.75
Value - 2380 -> 2391
S1 - 2354, R1 - 2407

Daily Numbers
Range - 2385 -> 2394.25
Value - 2387.75 -> 2392.75
Globex 2386.75 -> 2397.75

Settlement – 2392.75

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io " Ask Me Anything" thread
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