10th August



We really need a push down from here to open up the range a bit. A move up could get us back to the all time highs but more likely will be indecision and smaller range. So I'm still hoping for 56.75 at least to keep the potential range wider.



No much to say about last weeks volume profile - it's evenly distributed, with no real major steps in it. But paying attention to the value area is worthwhile.



The split profile is interesting - we cab see a green shaded area where potentially we have an area of resistance from 80-82.75. I'd like to see that tested after the open and then for a push down. That's my favored scenario. On continuation up, I'll be looking for that same area to offer support after a break upside.

As it is potentially a narrowing range, I expect less participation back into the range than if we break down. Very much a wait & see day.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2062 -> 2107
Value 2085.75 -> 2099.50
S1 - 2054.75, R1 - 2099.75


Daily Numbers
Range - 2062 -> 2076.75 / 2082.75
Value - 2063.75 -> 2071.25
Globex - 2071.75-> 2080.75

Settlement - 2073.50

Today only - 2080-2082.75

Long Term 2126.25, 2102.50, 2073.50, 2056.75, 2023, 1992.25, 1946.25, 1860

11th August



So we've not managed to get down to 56.75 and we are back to the 02.50 level. I would really like to see us break upside so that we can get a bit more of a run. It does look like the range is narrowing and if that is the case, we could well head down.

Funny thing is - we still have decent volume and volatility for the time of year but right now, there's no commitment one way or the other.



We are within last weeks range and awe are currently sitting in middle of it. So no real bias from that.



We can see that overnight we have taken back all of yesterdays day session gains. So I think the plan for today is simple. It's hard to have a bias. Overnight inventory is short and so we could see a pop up off the open. If not and we can break (or stay below) yesterdays day session low, then I'm looking for shorts. If we do have a pop up off the open, I'll take longs but I'm wary of yesterdays high and the 2102.50 level.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2062 -> 2107
Value 2085.75 -> 2099.50
S1 - 2054.75, R1 - 2099.75


Daily Numbers
Range -2071.75 / 2086 -> 2100.75
Value - 2092.50 -> 2099.50
Globex - 2085.50 -> 2101.75

Settlement - 2099.75

Long Term 2126.25, 2102.50, 2073.50, 2056.75, 2023, 1992.25, 1946.25, 1860

13th August

An interesting day yesterday.



We've been looking for the range to open up a bit and for 56.75 to get tested and indeed we dipped below it yesterday and saw it swiftly rejected. The trouble is, the Yuan devaluation is most likely what caused all this interest yesterday, so whilst a move up to 2120 and beyond would be nice, I suspect we'll just revert back to our narrow range. Anyway - all eyes on 2102.50 to see if we can stick above it and get out of this choppy area.



As you can see we have last weeks value high to deal with which isn't far off the one from the week before - and it's all just below our 2102.50 level. So more reason to suspect we may struggle to the upside.



Yesterday not much really happened if you consider where the prior day closed, where globex session opened and where we eventually closed.

There is talk of additional Yuan devaluation which could cause more volatility. So today one ear on the news and two eyes on the chart. News could just peter out and leave us in the range or it could cause another swift move.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2046.50 -> 2101.75
Value 2066.25 -> 2094.75
S1 - 2054.75, R1 - 2099.75


Daily Numbers
Range -2046.50 -> 2084.75 / 2085.25
Value - 2049.75-> 2072.25
Globex - 2076-> 2093

Settlement - 2084.25

Long Term 2126.25, 2102.50, 2073.50, 2056.75, 2023, 1992.25, 1946.25, 1860

DionysusToast 

13th August News could just peter out and leave us in the range or it could cause another swift move.

lol......from you it's funny.....

Ron

17th August



Still in the range and volume just a tad above a million. Our "good summer" may well come to a halt now. We've been very lucky in terms of volatility and volume this summer. Even if we do see typical summer action come in now, it'll only be for a few weeks, so I'll still take that over a typical year.



In the middle of the past 3 weeks range. So even without summer, we can expect a lot of indecision until it breaks.



Still - it's worth watching Fridays extremes/value today, as well as the weekly value high.

But my game today is really to watch the volume and if it is low, to look for a range to form and fade it. We could break out, I'll be happy to be wrong and for Friday to be an anomaly. We could get news in that really move us.

But my expectation is a dull day.

Enjoy.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2046.50 -> 2101.75
Value 2072.50 -> 2093
S1 - 2057.25, R1 - 2111.50

Daily Numbers
Range -2073.75 -> 2076 / 2089.75
Value - 2079 > 2085
Globex - 2084.25-> 2094.50

Settlement - 2089.50

Long Term 2126.25, 2102.50, 2073.50, 2056.75, 2023, 1992.25, 1946.25, 1860

No kidding about the tiny range, its being stuck in this 2.5 point range for a good 2 hours



Waiting for another long opportunity at 85~

18th August



OK- so we are now at the top of the range. And would very much like a breakout to the upside...



On a weekly basis - still in the middle, so nothing to help us assess direction there.



On a daily basis, we had a decent range yesterday. We have just gone through the 02.50 level. If we can move above that and hold it, then we may get to the highs. I suspect we'll likely roll over which is also fine as we are at the top of the range and that means we could have a couple of days of downward momentum to the bottom as the reversal up here could also bring in some interest.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2046.50 -> 2101.75
Value 2072.50 -> 2093
S1 - 2057.25, R1 - 2111.50

Daily Numbers
Range -2074.75 -> 2100.50
Value - 2085 > 2100.50
Globex - 2093.25-> 2103.75

Settlement - 2099.25

Long Term 2126.25, 2102.50, 2073.50, 2056.75, 2023, 1992.25, 1946.25, 1860

19th August



As per yesterday - we've tested 02.50 and now presumption is 2073.50 & 2056.75 are the next logical targets.

Just presuming simple rangebound behavior and participation being to the downside until we hit a reference.



After the open, a retest of yesterdays low or value low and a rejection to the downside should bring in shorts. If we start eating through yesterdays value area, it becomes a little more murky. We could test yesterdays highs, which means a good trade but a long wait.

So a downside bias, and looking for a more obvious rejection point for the best possibility of a run.

FOMC mornings do tend to be a but dull - but seeing as nobody is expecting the FED to do anything anyway - it'll probably be a normal morning!

Weekly Numbers
Range 2074.75 -> 2103.75
Value 2086.50 -> 2097.50
S1 - 2057.25, R1 - 2111.50

Daily Numbers
Range -2090.25 -> 2100.25 / 2103.75
Value - 2091.25 -> 2096.25
Globex - 2084 -> 2098

Settlement - 2094

Long Term 2126.25, 2102.50, 2073.50, 2056.75, 2023, 1992.25, 1946.25, 1860

20th August



So we had FOMC day yesterday. Not a bad mornings trading and the usual spike on the news. So are we now really bearish?


On Wednesday we had...

Quoting 

On a daily basis, we had a decent range yesterday. We have just gone through the 02.50 level. If we can move above that and hold it, then we may get to the highs. I suspect we'll likely roll over which is also fine as we are at the top of the range and that means we could have a couple of days of downward momentum to the bottom as the reversal up here could also bring in some interest.

Now we are at the opposite end of the range. Will we now break out and head to 2023 or will we basically now carry on ranging and move back up to 02.50. That's the only thing on my mind today. We do have some significant numbers out this AM and that may tip the scales to the downside if they are way below expectations.

We had a lot of volume yesterday but then lots of people trade around the FOMC and the overall drop was less than 15 points - so it was not a massive move.



On a Weekly basis, there's nothing to indicate we are in anything other than a range.



The profiles show the normal volatility associated with FOMC yesterday and then overnight we can see we've had a big move down overnight, which has gone through our 56.75 level and is now just above it.

So into the open, if we see 56.75 break, we could have a decent run down. If we move up it's back into the range and we are looking at a move up to 02.50 again. Either way we seem to be at an inflection point. As a day trader, I certainly want to see a move down for most volatility.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2053.50-> 2103.75
Value 2077.75 -> 2100.75
S1 - 2057.25, R1 - 2111.50

Daily Numbers
Range -2066.50 -> 2093.50 / 2098
Value - 2072.75 -> 2083.25
Globex - 2053.50 -> 2077.75

Settlement - 2072.75

Long Term 2126.25, 2102.50, 2073.50, 2056.75, 2023, 1992.25, 1946.25, 1860

21st August



Good day yesterday - after the first push down it appeared we had a reversal on hour hands but we just couldn't hold above the 2056.75 level and we got a tick above it and as it moved down that brought a lot of sellers in.

Yesterday we had

Quoting 

Now we are at the opposite end of the range. Will we now break out and head to 2023 or will we basically now carry on ranging and move back up to 02.50. That's the only thing on my mind today. We do have some significant numbers out this AM and that may tip the scales to the downside if they are way below expectations.

And we didn't quite make it to 2023 but got to 2024. In the overnight session we've been down to 2008.75 so far but we are now above 2023.

Looking at the above picture, we can see we are now back to the bottom of a range we started marking out in February. So the question today is really about whether we continue down towards 1946.25 or we start moving our way up.



I'll be looking for an upside reference today. Yesterdays value low or the single print at 38.25 as well as the overnight high. Just looking for a test of anything people will interpret as a resistance area to bring in more sellers. If we stay above 2023, I'm OK to go long but again I want to see some large move in the delta before I'll take anything with a wide stop.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2008.75 -> 2103.75
Value 2060.25 -> 2103.25
S1 - 2057.25, R1 - 2111.50

Daily Numbers
Range -2024.25 -> 2065 / 2077.75
Value - 2041.25 -> 2056.75
Globex - 2008.75 -> 2029

Settlement - 2025.50

Today only - 2038.25

Long Term 2126.25, 2102.50, 2073.50, 2056.75, 2023, 1992.25, 1946.25, 1860