26th April



We've come off the 2100 area but no clear rejection or sell off yet. Volume is decent but steady- around 1.7M per day. The upper white line at 71.50 appears to be where we found support, so an eye on that if we get back there.

I'm neutral looking at this - as mentioned last week, it's an all time high and so an area where we could expect some 'to and fro' and so I'm not ready to call continuation or reversal at this point.



The weekly profile isn't helping other than if we start eating into the value area - above 81.50, then it's likely we'll see the top of it - 99.50.



Looking back, we can see that the long breakout session was breaking the 72.50 level, so an eye on that if we get back there.

The plan.
- Still cautious because it's an area prone to manipulation
- if we stay above 81.50 into the open and don't start moving down, look for longs with a target just under 99.50
- look at 71.50-72.50 as a line in the sand area - could be support and should be stops below if it breaks.
- As we are above yesterdays range - watch for yesterdays high/value high for support


Weekly Numbers
Range 2058.50 -> 2105.25
Value - 2081.50 -> 2099.50
S1 - 2065.75 R1 - 2105.75


Daily Numbers
Range 2071 -> 2082.25/ 2091.50
Value 2074 -> 2079.50
Globex 2081.50 -> 2091.25

Settlement - 2083.25

Today only - 2071.50, 2072.50

Long Term 2100, 1996.75, 1920, 1833.75, 1804.75

DionysusToast 

Strawberries & cream cake....

Cool love strawberries!!!!!!!!!!

Ron

27th April

FOMC Day. Yesterday was pretty lame at the end, so expectation today is a slow start then fireworks at FOMC time.



So again, looking for this 2100 area to be resolved. Looking for a pop up or a break down through 71.50. It's really about what happens when the post-FOMC move is over & whether we get a new direction. It could whip around and settle back into the range.



This weeks profile is pinocchio-esque. This is just indicative in trading around a small range which is no shock considering the usual wait for FOMC.



The Globex session is within yesterdays range. So....

Plan
- for the morning - look to play off yesterdays range/value range
- look for an early trade
- hands off if it then dies out
- then wait for the announcement and see if we get some direction when it settles down

Weekly Numbers
Range 2072 -> 2091.50
Value - 2080.75-> 2088.75
S1 - 2065.75 R1 - 2105.75


Daily Numbers
Range 2079.50 -> 2091.25
Value 2081.25 -> 2086.25
Globex 2080.75-> 2088.25

Settlement - 2088.50

Today only - 2071.50

Long Term 2100, 1996.75, 1920, 1833.75, 1804.75

@DionysusToast

Hi Pete - I posted a question that I'm sure you can help with here. Thanks in advance.

28th April



The FOMC failed to pop us through the highs, which means that's one less catalyst for an up move. It's becoming more likely that we'll just roll over back to 2000 but I'm still waiting for clear momentum either way before changing long term bias.

Some bad news from Japan sent the markets down overnight and we are hovering around the 71.50 level. Eyes on that and eyes on how the US markets react to that news (or shrug it off) into the open.



A profile that's very typical of rangebound behavior, so there's a decent probability of continuing to ping-pong between the extremes.



The daily profiles are more telling. We can see that although we've had a decent move down overnight, as yet we've done nothing more than probe down to the bottom of the range.

Plan for today
- look for the US open to shrug off the overnight bearishness with a move back up
- look for any upside move to fail between the value high (87 and 95)
- any up move off the open could just be initial balancing off the overnight shorts, so be wary of a reversal down early on
- 71.50 is a line in the sand, expect more sellers to come in when it breaks (but not to the tick - give some leeway)

Weekly Numbers
Range 2070.25 -> 2094.25
Value - 2077.75-> 2087.75
S1 - 2065.75 R1 - 2105.75


Daily Numbers
Range 2076.25 -> 2094
Value 2080.25 -> 2089.25
Globex 2070.35-> 2094.25

Settlement - 2090.75

Today only - 2071.50

Long Term 2100, 1996.75, 1920, 1833.75, 1804.75

2nd May



The market has come off with significant volume. So if there's more volume to the downside, I'm now biased towards a move back down to 2000. That's a bias, I'm not married to it.



I'm still watching 2071.50 above and if we can get above that, my bias returns to a move up to 2100.



Last weeks value low is 71.25 which coincides with the level from the longer term chart. So on a move up past 71, I'll be looking for an initial move back to the top of value at 88.



It's a holiday today in most of Europe and some of Asia, hence not much significance can be drawn from the overnight action, nor can we red much into the lack of volume. It's not lack of interest, just lack of traders.

Here's the plan
- on the open - look for a snap back up - possible after a couple of down days
- otherwise look for shorts
- long term bias is to see 2000 again unless we go through 2071.50 in which case, I expect 2088 and then either a roll back to 71.50 or a move to 2100.
- look to play off Fridays range/value range

Weekly Numbers
Range 2045.75 -> 2094.25
Value - 2071.25-> 2088.25
S1 - 2038.50 R1 - 2086.75


Daily Numbers
Range 2045.75 -> 2067 / 2076
Value 2047.50 -> 2057.50
Globex 2055.50 -> 2062.75

Settlement - 2059

Today only - 2071.50

Long Term 2100, 1996.75, 1920, 1833.75, 1804.75

3rd May



We've had a push back up through the 71.50 area, I mentioned yesterday being bullish above that and bearish below. I'm a little wary of a small range forming here that could hold us for the next few weeks.

We'd had good volume on the push down on Thursday and Friday and yesterday we had a move up with lackluster volume. Of course, yesterday was a holiday in much of the world, so that could just be the holidays.



We are into the main distribution from last week, which means the value trade would be a move to 88 and then to rotate back down to 71.25.



Yesterdays move up may well just be a reaction to the 2 down days so today:
- look for downside momentum and a continuation of the Thursday/Friday moves, especially if we get above average volume
- cautiously bullish above 71.50 with a view to hitting 88 at which case, with average volume, I'd expect a roll back down to 71.50
- Overall, it does appear like the test of the highs has failed and that we are now due to revisit 2000. Support off yesterdays value area/range could bring in buyers and help us push up though.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2045.75 -> 2094.25
Value - 2071.25-> 2088.25
S1 - 2038.50 R1 - 2086.75


Daily Numbers
Range 2055.50 / 2059.50 -> 2077.50
Value 2059.75 -> 2069.75
Globex 2072 -> 2076.25 (early prep though)

Settlement - 2074.25

Today only - 2071.50

Long Term 2100, 1996.75, 1920, 1833.75, 1804.75

4th May



I'm still sticking with the premise of a move to 2000 but wary of a choppy range 2020-2100 forming.



Last weeks low at 2045.75 is below us, so caution as we approach that. Not necessarily for a reversal but for a little nudging around.



Yesterday was a good example of how you'd need to trade against your overall bias at some points and the general "swingy" nature of the ES. We had a couple of good legs down and then the market moved sideways for the rest of the AM. So one of those days where you had to get in early.

So far, the overnight action has been slow. Going into today

- looking for volume to the downside for a continuation trade but wary as we get to 2045.75
- if we don't get the volume, I'm also wary of us initially getting stuck in yesterdays range (based on overnight action) - in which case it's taking cues of yesterday and intraday levels
- based on where we are now, very interested in trades off yesterdays value area/range
- best case scenario would be an upside move to a reference point and then volume coming in to the downside


Weekly Numbers
Range 2048 -> 2077.50
Value - 2052.50> 2065.50
S1 - 2038.50 R1 - 2086.75

Daily Numbers
Range 2048 -> 2063.25 / 2076.25
Value 2052.25 -> 2059.75
Globex 2051.25 -> 20760.25

Settlement - 2057

Today only - 2045.75

Long Term 2100, 1996.75, 1920, 1833.75, 1804.75

9th May



I'm still biased short but also looking at the white box above as a potential range. We will have people looking at this market channeling down, so if we move up from here that channel breaks. I'm not a channel trader, I'm just looking for areas above that could see people start to jump in on the long side. So right now, I'd be more inclined to take longs if we go above 2060.



To the upside, I'd exercise caution as we move above the top of the main distribution from last week - so around 61.75. Similarly, caution below at the weekly value low.



The reason I'm leaning a bit more towards the potential range is this action from last week. As you can see, it's not looking like a directional market. We had a late pullback on Friday down to 47.75, so that's my first reference point into today as well as the range/value range.

Plan
- stay fairly neutral at the open unless we get a news driven move between now & then
- look for moves to the upside, better if we can test 47.75 or Fridays value.
- wary at 60-61.75
- on downside moves, watch last weeks low/Fridays low/VAL as we could be at the bottom of a medium term range
- more aggressive to the downside if we can crack Fridays low.

I'm going to need to change this prep somehow as I find I'm not capturing the essence of what I do intraday here. Most days give us 2-3 decent sized swings as traders play one side and then take profits and play the other. I'm generally looking to take advantage of these swings in the backdrop of an understanding of what is going on longer term.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2030.50 -> 2077.50
Value - 2039.50> 2060
S1 - 2032, R1 - 2075.75

Daily Numbers
Range 2030.50 /2033.75 -> 2052.75
Value 2035.25 -> 2045.75
Globex 2049 -> 2058

Settlement - 2052.75

Today only - 2047.75, 2060-2061.75

Long Term 2100, 1996.75, 1920, 1833.75, 1804.75

10th May



Yesterday we had:

Quoting 

I'm still biased short but also looking at the white box above as a potential range. We will have people looking at this market channeling down, so if we move up from here that channel breaks. I'm not a channel trader, I'm just looking for areas above that could see people start to jump in on the long side. So right now, I'd be more inclined to take longs if we go above 2060.

Looking at yesterdays and the overnight action, we can see a couple of things. First that we did indeed see buyers coming in when the top of the channel broker. Second that we appear to be confirming the potential range we've had our eye on for a while. I'm still a little cautious around 2071.50 though.



We can see we are above the major distribution from last week, so keep an eye on last weeks value high if we fall back.



Yesterday we did stair step up overnight, so locally the single prints are worth keeping an eye on but I'm mostly looking at the 2064 area from here. Also to the left we can see a number of highs between 2058.75-2060.25, so an eye on that area.

Plan
- look out for an initial reaction down after the move up overnight (day session rejecting the new prices)
- monitor the volume on any move down, look for it to fail unless volume is exceptionally high
- look for support at yesterdays high/value high BUT wary that we may not get that low if the participants are accepting these prices
- if we move straight up off the open and it looks like we are going to trend, scale into a long trade
- be wary if we get towards 2100 as bias is for the range to fail

Weekly Numbers
Range 2030.50 -> 2077.50
Value - 2039.50> 2060
S1 - 2032, R1 - 2075.75

Daily Numbers
Range 2048 / 2049 -> 2058.75 / 2059.75
Value 2051 -> 2065.50
Globex 2048 -> 2069.25

Settlement - 2054.25

Today only - 2058.75-2060.25, 2064, 2071.50, 2100

Long Term 2100, 1996.75, 1920, 1833.75, 1804.75