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Big drop and huge volume on Friday. Today is 'officially' the day that volume comes back into the markets. So the last of the absent traders will be back.
After a big move day, we often get a push in the opposite direction, so a snap back up has to be one of our scenarios today. We also need to keep an eye on the market depth. If it's very low - in the low 100's, then it's going to be volatile and stops need to be adjusted accordingly.
Note that 2104 is a key level and we have paused around there for now. That gives another reason for traders to jump on any move up.
There's little point considering the weekly profiles after a drop like that. So I'm not too worried about weekly levels for the next couple of days.
We've gapped down overnight and them taken another 15 point drop. So it does look bearish for now.
Plan
- US traders will set the tone, so despite the continuation down, look out for a snap up off the open
- Trade in any direction that has volume. People will of course jump into the downside if they think we are due another sell off
- look to scale into trades, add more as you are proven right. That way getting caught out by volatility won't hurt too much
Weekly Numbers Range - not using weeklies after Fridays move
Value
Daily Numbers
Range 2120 -> 2158 / 2171.75
Value 2127.25 -> 2148.75
Globex 2181.75 > 2100.15
After the rollover what is your ATH. I have 2185 as the ATH some have said it is 2184.5 and the CME shows 2184.25. Not a big deal but i'd like to know if my datas are off a bit.
And it was the snap back up we had. If we look at the long red box, this shows the attempts up towards 2100 we'd had earlier this year before finally breaking to the upside. On Friday/Sunday evening we tested that area. It's the first test of 2100 since the breakout.
Above us we have the upper summer time range. So for today, I have a few scenarios.
1 - We have tested the old highs and we are now on the way up towards 2200
2 - We are at the start of a new shift down and so the test of the old range will hold and that will bring sellers in
So for today, I'm just considering that scenario. The move down spooked a lot of people who then announced that the sky was falling. Then as we moved up yesterday, they all announced that apparently it was an optical illusion. So I think the key prices are 2100 and the range (2158.75-2184).
There's not that much to gain from this other than watching yesterdays high and globex high/low to see if we get a reaction in the day session. We've been pretty close to the range low, so that may be considered tested.
Plan
- Potentially volatile day.
- No bias, looking for a break of yesterdays range/overnight range as points to play off
- Expecting selling if we fail to get hold through 58.75 (rejection of the upper range and potential confirmation of a sell off)
- Otherwise looking to follow the volume
Weekly Numbers
Range - not using weeklies after Fridays move
Value
Daily Numbers
Range 2100.25 / 2110.50 -> 2156
Value 2121 -> 2147.75
Globex 2135.50 -> 2151.51
A very indecisive market. As per yesterday, I think it's about the range (2158.75) above and the 2100 below. We are narrowing slightly, so we have to be wary that we may range in this area. Still, it's really whipping around with large volume, so it's clear that people are willing to jump on a move. Just not yet on a move outside of that range. So an eye on them still.
I like the way we topped out around 2129.50 yesterday afternoon and haven't managed to break it overnight. Worth keeping an eye on that today.
The past few days haven't been days where you could do much in the way of finessing an entry. It's been better to scale in as a move progressed.
Yesterday we build a lot of volume from 2136-2138.75 into the open. Here's a pic just before the open....
What happened in the day session, an initial push down, then we moved up to move a few ticks through that high volume area a tick or two, failed to stay above it and then the market took a dive. So actually good from a price action perspective.
Plan
- No bias going in, I still think we could break either way
- Going in with the expectation of high volatility but will change that if the volume is lower today
- If it looks volatile, I'll wait for an excuse for one side to come in (like a tick through 29.50 and a fail to hold) and then scale
- Basically looking for a level to break or hold & then follow the volume looking trying to exploit a larger move
- Obviously that plan goes out the window if the market starts slow - but I'm still wary of going all in because yesterdays start wasn't that fast. Trying not to get sucked in to a trade that suddenly sweeps against.
Weekly Numbers
not using weeklies this week
Daily Numbers
Range 2112.25 -> 2139 / 2151.50
Value 2115 -> 2126
Globex 2121.25 -> 2129.75
Still between a rock and a hard place. We are channeling down but I'm still completely neutral on which way this will go in the end. We still have the old highs below us (making this just a potential retest) but can't get through the range above (making it a potential reversal.
If we look at the past few days, it's clear that the market has become less decisive with a lot of chop after initial moves off the open.
2030 is obviously significant so if any move up stops there, we could see sellers come in, in size.
Plan
- Still waiting for the market to decide if it wants to have a proper push down with 2090-2100 being 'support' and 2158.75 being 'resistance'. We are potentially forming a range between those two points.
- will look for signs that the move to the downside is complete and expect long side volume from there to give us a decent chance of a run upwards.
- caution as we reach 2030 & look out for sell side volume if it holds
- Other than that - looking for an early trade to avoid the chop we've seen later on
- a breakdown through 2090 is likely to trigger a larger sell off, and that's not too far from where we are sitting now
Weekly Numbers
not using weeklies this week
Daily Numbers
Range 2112 -> 2134.50
Value 2118.50 -> 2129.50
Globex 2107.75 -> 2121
Since the breakdown on Friday the 9th, we've been trading in a range. We still have the old range above us at 2158.75 and the old highs at 2100 below. From that perspective, we have to look at the potential for a reversal downside if we get to 58.75 today.
In terms of where we traded last week, the majority was between 2112.75 and 2135.75 - that's last weeks value area. So if we fall back into that range, we should look for a sluggish travel to 12.75.
We had an eye on 2130 last Thursday (Friday was a day off for me) and we can see that was significant on Friday or rather 32.50 which is close to the weeks value high.
Plan
- Watch for a fall back to last weeks value high or the 32.50 level, So 32.50-35.75. If that holds, look for buy side volume and join it.
- If we fall back through 32.50, then expect chop but an overall downside bias till we get to 12.75
- On any moves up, be cautious at 58.75 if you are long. If we pop through it, it's hard to say if we'll then see buyers jump on the "break of the 6 day range" or we'll chop because we are back to the old range
- Overall it's been weird action the past week with the market slipping and sliding 5-6 ticks without much warning, so I'm looking for a change in that behavior today, see if we have some more reliable conditions. If not, then valium to stop me jumping at shadows....
Weekly Numbers
Range 2100.25 -> 2156
Value 2112.75 -> 2135.75
S1 - 2110, R1 - 2155.50
Daily Numbers
Range 2123 -> 2134.25 / 2138
Value 2126.25 -> 2131.25
Globex 2131.50 -> 2144.25
FOMC day tomorrow, so traditionally a slow day. Still, we've had FOMC mornings that have been wild for no good reason, so we may see a move.
We are still in the middle of the range, still directionless with reducing volume. It's hard to see how we will do much today.
Yesterday we traded around the overnight volume and we've stayed within that overnight.
Plan
- Low expectation day - still looking at 58.75 above and 2100 below as the decision points
- Also looking for bounces off yesterdays highs/lows/value
- But really not expecting much, so I'll let it play out for 20 mins and see if something intraday develops worth playing off
Weekly Numbers
Range 2100.25 -> 2156
Value 2112.75 -> 2135.75
S1 - 2110, R1 - 2155.50
Daily Numbers
Range 2127.75 -> 2146.75
Value 2130 -> 2142.50
Globex 2130.75 -> 2142
There's not much point in making a plan today because...
1 - It'll very likely be quiet and directionless before the FOMC
2 - What happens after the FOMC very much depends on what that say about interest rates.
So the plan is "there is no plan"
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