3rd December



Yesterday we had a relatively big move down but looking left and the volume was decent. Still, looking left, we are still very much in the range.

So was yesterdays push down a sign of bullish sentiment or just a knee jerk reaction? If negative sentiment, we should see continued push down with above average volume. Yesterday started out with weak volume but today should not if we are seeing real bullishness.



We are now both in the middle of this weeks and last weeks value areas. Very neutral.



But we have become more neutral because of overnight trading.

So theme for the day is to look out for volume on the downside and if not, expect neutral trading. Which means once again, trying to get in on the early swings.


Weekly Numbers
Range 2075-> 2105
Value 2081.25 -> 2094.75
S1, R1 - holiday

Daily Numbers
Range 2075 -> 2103.35 / 2105
Value 2081.50 -> 2103
Globex 2077.75 -> 2090.25

Settlement - 2081.50

Long Term 2117, 2092.50, 2046.75, 2013, 1983, 1936.25, 1850, 1781.50

4th December, 2015

Yesterday we had "So was yesterdays push down a sign of bullish sentiment or just a knee jerk reaction? If negative sentiment, we should see continued push down with above average volume."

And here's the relative volume:



From the open we were about 100k contracts ahead of the norm and it just kept rising from there ending up just over a million contracts above average.

So sentiment in the short term is bearish and participation is high.



We have probed through a technical level and are now back above it but my opinion is that this is not a technical market right now.



I think there's not much point trying to draw too much conclusion. We have had a push down and we have been in a bit of a "Teflon" market which simply doesn't want to stay down. So an eye on volume still but also the fact that we could as easily snap back as push down. I am biased to the downside but I'm not married to is because of these snaps back.

So into today, if volume is high into the open, then there's no need to stalk an early trade. I'll be watching to see what happens and then jumping on board when that's clear. I'll feel much better about short trades once we clear yesterdays low, until then I'll be a bit wary of the market snapping back up.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2075-> 2040
Value - irrelevant @ this point
S1, R1 - holiday

Daily Numbers
Range 2040 -> 2084.50 / 2095.25
Value 2051.25-> 2084.25
Globex 2051.50 -> 2062.75

Settlement - 2051.25

Long Term 2117, 2092.50, 2046.75, 2013, 1983, 1936.25, 1850, 1781.50

7th December



On Friday we had " We have had a push down and we have been in a bit of a "Teflon" market which simply doesn't want to stay down"

And the teflon market strikes again!

So now we are back in the zone we chopped around in before, an area with a relative lack of interest. So we could end up chopping around here again or we could see more volatility. So far, volume is slightly above average (5am EST).



We can see a larger distribution from around 2080-2095, so that's a candidate for the area we may chop around today. Certainly it's worth looking for initial support/resistance around there.



On the split profile, we do have a late point at 2078.25 which is close to 2080 above to make that a zone worth watching into today.

Other than that, it's really just an eye on the volatility today and react accordingly.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2040-> 2105
Value - 2065.25 -> 2099.75
S1 - 2051.25, R1 - 2114.50

Daily Numbers
Range 2046.75 / 2052 -> 2093
Value 2069.75 -> 2092.75
Globex 2083.50 -> 2095.50

Today only 2078.25-2080, 2095

Settlement - 2088.50

Long Term 2117, 2092.50, 2046.75, 2013, 1983, 1936.25, 1850, 1781.50

8th December

Volume is tailing off and yesterday was slightly less volatile.



It's hard for me to have a specific bias, although I think there's more potential to a downside break than any upside break. We could try for the all time highs before the end of the year but as yet, there's been no willing to trade through 2117 this half of the year.

If we can get a push down through yesterdays low, then I think we have potential. Otherwise, I suspect we will chop around.



We can see a lot of trading yesterday between 65.50 and 74.50, which is around where the value area is. If we do pop up in the remainder of the overnight session, I'll be watching these prices to see if we hold.

Other than that, I'm going in without much bias but with the premise that a downside break should bring in decent amount of selling and that upside will probably be lackluster.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2040-> 2105
Value - 2065.25 -> 2099.75
S1 - 2051.25, R1 - 2114.50

Daily Numbers
Range 2064.25 -> 2085.50 / 2095.50
Value 2067.25 -> 2074.75
Globex 2067.75 -> 2082

Today only 2078.25-2080, 2095

Settlement - 2081

Long Term 2117, 2092.50, 2046.75, 2013, 1983, 1936.25, 1850, 1781.50

9th December

Yesterday we had "Other than that, I'm going in without much bias but with the premise that a downside break should bring in decent amount of selling and that upside will probably be lackluster. "



The prior low was 64.25 and we broke down in the overnight session and into the day session we managed a meager push down of about 14 points. Then we took all that back and moved sideways for the rest of the session.



As we keep saying - this area has seen a lot of chop this year and it's hard to see what will give us the sort of shift in sentiment to make a run at the highs. On the other hand with a possible rate hike this month (good idea to hike rates when liquidity is traditionally low), there's plenty of reason to favor the downside. So I still think upside is chop and downside has most potential.

It will be interesting to see what happens if we can break through last weeks low from here, we have a level at 46.75 but I think more people will have an eye on last Thursdays low. I



Not too much to say from the weekly profile at this point although it's worth keeping an eye open at 75 are for resistance.



Volume wasn't too bad yesterday, although the afternoon volume was on the low side. So today I'll be trying to take advantage of any early volatility and expecting it to chop mid to late morning unless we can have a downside break of 2040.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2050.25 -> 2095.50
Value - 2054.75 -> 2075.75
S1 - 2051.25, R1 - 2114.50

Daily Numbers
Range 2050.25 / 2055.25 -> 2082
Value 2067.25 -> 2074.75
Globex 2052.25 -> 2069.50

Today only 2040,

Settlement - 2058.75

Long Term 2117, 2092.50, 2046.75, 2013, 1983, 1936.25, 1850, 1781.50

10th & 11th December

The index futures are rolling over, so that's my cue to take a couple of days off. Probably a good thing given the way this market is swinging about.

Not that it isn't tradeable - just that there's not a lot of point prepping for it - more like "hang on for dear life".

The rollover itself has changed character over the past 18 months and we can get some decent moves on these days. The roll was often done fairly quickly with the majority of volume in the new contract by the end of Thursday AM but nowadays, it seems to take days before the volume moves to the new month.

Still, it's a good excuse to have a couple of days off.

14th December



New levels have been posted below. Far fewer levels appear than usual as we keep running all over them which makes them not really relevant any more.

Looking left we are back at an area that has provided support many times this year. The level is 2006 but last test here got as low as 1990.75. I'd expect sellers to come in volume if we break that. We have FOMC on Wednesday and on the one hand there have been hints at a hike this month, on the other hand the FED have been pretty weak in terms of being sensitive to moves down in the market, also Yellen is a big believed in negative interest rates and you have to wonder if she doesn't want to give her theories a real world try.



Above us, it's worth keeping an eye on 2032.25, that's the low of the break down we had the week before last. We may get back up to that point and find out we have resistance there. Just above that is the main distribution of volume from last week.



Overnight we have decent volume but have traded within Fridays day session range. Considering the FOMC on Wednesday, we may well just rotate in this area until Wednesday afternoon.

Saying that, this has been a volatile market for a December, so I'll be watching the downside for a break and 32.25 to the upside.

Weekly Numbers
Range 1998.50 -> 2087.75
Value - 2034.50 -> 2068
S1 - 1973.75, R1 - 2053

Daily Numbers
Range 1998.50 -> 2025.50 / 2047.75
Value 2005.25 -> 2019.75
Globex 1999.50 -> 2019.50

Today only 2032.25, 1990.75

Settlement - 2009.75

Long Term 2109.25, 2006, 1929.25, 1843, 1773.75

15th December

All bets are off!



We got hit with some major volatility yesterday with a 19.5 point move up in 2 minutes (but only 53k contracts traded) and then a 1 minute 16 point drop, again with just 26k contracts traded. Big swings with relatively low volume means that the liquidity disappeared. Just after that, a fellow trader sent me a link to this article....

The Market Has Just Gone Nuts | Zero Hedge

The upshot being that there's US$1.1 trillion in S&P500 options expiring Friday with a lot of them being puts just below where the market is.

Now - a couple of things to consider there.

1 - People tend to overblow the numbers when they talk about derivatives. The nominal value of a single emini S&P500 contract is a little over $100k but obviously when you trade a contract, you are not risking $100. So when people report numbers, they tend to do so in the most newsworthy manner. So there is a tendency to pump up the numbers to the highest one that fits.

2 - Regardless of the fact the market is overweight puts, there were buyers and sellers of those puts. So there's people on both sides of that trade, people that will benefit if it goes down, people that will benefit if it goes up.

3 - Many of the puts will not have been speculative trades but hedges, so some of the holders wont care what the market does.

But still - that's a lot of money on the line and we can't expect either side to just sit by the sidelines and wait it out.

Tennis is not considered a dangerous sport, but it becomes dangerous when playing in a court full of elephants. In my opinion, that's what we have today. We have a potential FED rate hike (or not) and we have a lot of people that stand to benefit and lose based on where price ends up on Friday. So it could get interesting.

My own method of looking at the market is to look for areas I think speculators might jump on board and then joining when they do. I don't think this is that type of market. That presumes that speculators are the main players and that liquidity providers are doing their job in a fairly safe environment.

I think the market conditions - will cause liquidity providers to be extra cautious (i.e. missing) and for speculators like myself to be less significant. There is the potential for the markets to get pushed around.

In short, it's more dangerous to trade right now and in addition, my own method of analyzing the market is based on a set of presumptions that cannot be relied on from here till Friday.

That doesn't mean you can't trade it. I will watch it and see and possibly try to scale into a trade if the market puts in a run. If liquidity disappears, I won't even try that.

Very insightful analysis and interpretation. It merits more than clicking the thanks button. I appreciate your effort to improve our understanding of market's behaviour.

Sent from my Lenovo K50a40 using Tapatalk

17th December

FOMC is done & it's good to see the FED finally had the 'stones' to raise rates. The financial press was full of doom & gloom over their predictions that this raise would signal the start of a bear market. What we saw after the FED announcement was most likely NOT large institutions coming in reacting to the news. We can figure that most were positioned ahead of it.



So now we look set to test the highs or at least the last attempt at the highs. We still have $1.1 trillion of S&P options to expire by the end of the week, so it could still be very volatile.



Going into today, the question from the start will be whether we can keep the post-FOMC gains. So I'm looking for momentum and to trade a continuation. To the upside, I'll then be looking at 2097.25 (the last failed attempt at the highs) and 2109.25. A reversal off either should bring in sellers.

To the downside, I'd expect a move down to 2006 initially but if we get a really sharp move down today, then I think we could easily go past that. If the market looks weak, people could well panic and get out - especially as we are sitting close to all time highs.

Should be interesting.

Weekly Numbers
Range 1983.25 -> 2071.50
Value - 2010.50 -> 2071.50
S1 - 1973.75, R1 - 2053

Daily Numbers
Range 2031 -> 2068.75
Value 2037.25 -> 2055.25
Globex 2056 -> 2071.50

Today only 2097.25

Settlement - 2072

Long Term 2109.25, 2006, 1929.25, 1843, 1773.75