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Last week we'd been watching for a test of 80.75 and on Friday we had a move down and whilst we didn't get that far down, we got within 1.5 points and then buyers stepped in. So we've breached the highs, had a decent downside test and buyers were interested.
We also had the best volume day for the week - just over 1.6 million contracts.
It was quite a decent push up and the only bearish thing about today is that often after snap ups we get an equal snap down. So that's worth watching out for.
Below us we have the late pullback of 2101.25 and the old high of the week 2099.50 as potential areas that buyers will come back in. So I am watching to see if we get a around there and if so, I expect some more buy side participation.
If we dip below 2099.50, I'm expecting chop more than a swift move down as we chopped around this area plenty last week. I expect the indecision there to continue.
Weekly Numbers Range - 2080.75 -> 2108.75
Value - 2089.25 -> 2096.75
S1 2098.75, R1 - 2116.25
Daily Numbers
Range - 2082.25 -> 2108.75
Value - 2082.25 -> 2099.75
Globex - 2102 -> 2108
Settlement - 2107
Today - 2099.50, 2101.25
Long Term 2088.75, 2068.25, 2047, 2019.75, 2007.50, 1984.75, 1961, 1922.25, 1878.25, 1806
If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io " Ask Me Anything" thread
I've just spent the past 5 minutes trying to think of the right adjective to describe yesterdays volume... Most weren't printable. As we see many times, Monday often sets the tone for the week, so we really want Tuesday to move a little or we could see indecision and lethargy all week.
We have a 'flip' - the old highs - around 2009.50-2001 becoming an area where buyers came in. So today, looking there to see if they do it again.
If you look at last week, you can see trading focused 2088-2098. That does potentially mean volatility decreases if we get below 2098, it may chop around in that area. Conversely, a break to the upside has the potential for a cleaner run. Regardless of how people take positions - it's just going to be clearer to all if we move up but there will be a lot of different opinions if we move down.
Yesterday we had:
We got down as low as 2099.75. We did see buyers step in and another retest later that got as low as 2100.25. So again, let's keep that on the radar for today.
So looking for yesterdays lows to hold or possible the value area for a push up. Volume could be poor and we could be developing into another multi-day chop. Again - if it does that, it might be hard to keep focused for the eventual break.
Try not to get chopped up too much if you are scalping. Yesterday was tough on shorter term trades for me. The pops were pretty measly - 3 ticks off my short term setups and so I had a lot of scratches.
Also - watch for icebergs/absorption - we were getting a lot of 'sticking' at levels and trading 1-2k contracts yesterday, so as we go in to today - watch for that and watch for the reaction. It'll give you some clues to play subsequent occurrences.
Weekly Numbers Range - 2080.75 -> 2108.75
Value - 2089.25 -> 2096.75
S1 2098.75, R1 - 2116.25
Daily Numbers
Range - 2099.75 -> 2108.25
Value - 2102 -> 2105.50
Globex - 2105 -> 2108.25
Settlement - 2106.75
Today - 2099.50 - 2100
Long Term 2088.75, 2068.25, 2047, 2019.75, 2007.50, 1984.75, 1961, 1922.25, 1878.25, 1806
If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io " Ask Me Anything" thread
Rolling up to the end of the month, so we could just push up lazily till the 28th and then find nothing to support these prices thereafter. Just a scenario to keep in mind.
We can see we are gradually 'stair stepping' up. We are seeing old highs creating areas where buyers have stepped in, so I have my eyes on 2109.25 and 2099.50. That is obviously making the presumption that this 'lazy' move up continues.
The weekly profile is basically just confirming the 2099.50 & 2109.25 levels. There's low volume this week so these high volume areas are just relatively high for this week.
Yesterday, we did end the pit session at a lower price after making a new high. We have traded the Globex session within the bounds of yesterdays value area so far, so looking to key off yesterdays range & value range today.
Obviously, this is a narrow week compared to what we've seen so far this year, so we could push down to Mondays lows at any time and still be set for a higher close by end of business tomorrow. So whilst I think the 2109.25 area could hold into the pit session, I think it's a very small push down and so looking for the weekly lows too.
Yesterday was interesting - we had a rare delta divergence on the ES. Well - visually it's a delta divergence but the absolute shift in delta of 12k is pretty small in it's own right. I don't play them myself because I usually look for delta to confirm. It was an ugly morning - TICK, Dow, Nasdaq all doing their own thing early on which made it a tough range play at the start.
Later on things started synching up a bit but basically to scalp yesterday AM, you had to look for very local action off the DOM and be fairly brutal in cutting trades that didn't work out. Even the ones that did work out meant sitting on them for a while - getting a decent entry and seeing your price hold but also seeing it just mill around without direction 3-4 ticks for what seemed like an age before either moving on or coming back on you. Almost like you get decent entry and then it became a coin toss but just on the right side of your entry price. I can't personally see the point in taking less than 3 ticks (although I will at times) with my commission structure and I'm finding it a long wait.
Opportunity was there early on but it did need a lot of patience. So watch for that today too!
Weekly Numbers
Range - 2099.75 -> 2117.75
Value - 2102 -> 2112
S1 2098.75, R1 - 2116.25
Daily Numbers
Range - 2107.25 -> 2117.25
Value - 2109.50 -> 2114.50
Globex - 2109,75 -> 2114.50
Settlement - 2110.25
Today - 2099.50, 2109.25
Long Term 2088.75, 2068.25, 2047, 2019.75, 2007.50, 1984.75, 1961, 1922.25, 1878.25, 1806
If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io " Ask Me Anything" thread
Last day of the month, so be alert for a nudge up today.
We didn't make a new high yesterday, so that could have the permafaders out in force today. I think it's more likely we'll see the market hold or go higher today and that any down move will come on Monday.
Still, early on today, I'll be watching 2109.25 to see if sellers come in when on a test of that area.
We can see this on the weekly chart, that we popped above 09.25 and are now below it. It's nothing more than an area people may react, so let's just be aware when it gets there. Obviously to the upside it's all fresh air, and we could easily make 2125 if we get through 2115.
Yesterday all we did was to push down towards the low of the week - 2099.75. Overnight we've stayed within yesterdays value area so it's tough right now to have a bias going into the day. So looking at yesterdays range/value area to play off early in the day.
Weekly Numbers
Range - 2099.75 -> 2117.75
Value - 2105.50 -> 2113
S1 2098.75, R1 - 2116.25
Friday was the last day of the month. We didn't get a push up but it's possible we were 'holding' there and may fall now it's a new month.
We can see the step below us is around 2099.75, so watching that area into the open.
Looking at last weeks profile, we can see a fairly narrow week, we can see that last weeks low is 2099.75 - the step in the 4 hour chart above. It looks like we are set to open within last weeks range, which will most likely give us more narrow action.
I expect volatility to increase only once we break last weeks range and the positions left within that range are washed out.
There wasn't much special about Friday, a range above (2105.25-2111) and slightly less well defined range below.
So of course Fridays range is relevant, I'm hoping to see last weeks lows tested for a decent reaction.
Weekly Numbers
Range - 2099.75 -> 2117.75
Value - 2105.75 -> 2113.25
S1 2095.75, R1 - 2113.75
Daily Numbers
Range - 2100.75 -> 2111
Value - 2104.75 -> 2110.25
Globex - 2103.75 -> 2109.25
Settlement - 2102.75
Long Term 2088.75, 2068.25, 2047, 2019.75, 2007.50, 1984.75, 1961, 1922.25, 1878.25, 1806
If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io " Ask Me Anything" thread
We have a range marking out 2099.75-2117.75, so first thoughts into today are to watch for signs the top of the range is holding. Obviously if we stay in the range, trading in the middle of it is going to be tough. We have been here for 7 trading days so far. Trade within the range will be choppy and a move upside has the best potential to give us more volatility.
We have market out almost the entire of last weeks range already. Not much to say about this other than I hope we get out of it!
The afternoon low was 2017, so if we do move down off the open, that could be support that could encourage enough buyers to move back to the top and break out upside. So far, the Globex is holding towards the top of the range.
Weekly Numbers
Range - 2099.75 -> 2117.75
Value - 2105.75 -> 2113.25
S1 2095.75, R1 - 2113.75
We broke through last weeks low with slightly better volume yesterday - 1.3 million contracts but that's still not high by any means. Below us we have a potential range low at 2080.50 but before that we have our longer term level of 2088.75. I think based on the next few days, that 88.75 level might be removed, especially if it doesn't elicit a reaction this time round.
We are back in the inner box though - so it's possible that yesterdays probe down is done and we revert to last weeks range.
So into the open, seeing if we can get back above 2100 to traverse last weeks range of we are set to move down. Last week was the end of the month and we mentioned it was possible we'd just hold the highs into the end of the month and have a correction this month. So that's a scenario to have in your mind.
Yesterday we were looking at 2107 as potential support but that area became resistance later today. I think we'll have plenty of people watching that level. So if we do head up, look at 2107 as a potential roadblock.
So watching 2100, 2107 as potential areas for sellers to come in. Certainly if we have an upside test, we should get seller participation. Upside moves will most likely be more of a churn than any move downside.
Weekly Numbers
Range - 2095.50 -> 2115.50
Value - 2101.75 -> 2111.25
S1 2095.75, R1 - 2113.75
Better volume yesterday, just under 1.5M. I still think we may be creating a range. We poked through the 88.75 longer term level but not down as far as the bottom of the presumed range 80.50.
On the weekly profile, we can see that 99.75 appears significant. We are approaching it as of typing. If it holds as resistance, I think sellers will have confidence to jump on that and take it down. So looking for a hold of 99.75 to give me a short bias.
The late pullback yesterday was to 92.50 - and again - if that holds as support (or the VAL), I think buyers will help us push it up.
So I still have my hypothesis of an overall range forming but I'm not 100% sure if yesterdays push down means we've now visited as low as we'll go this time round and we are now bound for the top of the range.
Weekly Numbers
Range - 2085.25 -> 2115.50
Value - 2098.25-> 2115.75
S1 2095.75, R1 - 2113.75
Poor volume yesterday, just over a million. Range of the pit session was just over 10 points. Friday today, so unless there's some news moving the market - it's probably going to be dull.
I am still looking at the outer range but it is possible that with our inability to stay above 2099.75, we could head to the low of the range before the trip to the high.
We do keep poking above last weeks low but we aren't able to maintain above it. But it doesn't look like players either side want to capitalize on that yet.
Watch yesterdays extremes and value for clues today. I really do think we'll be lucky to see a break today, so I'm going to ask the wife if she wants a romantic dinner for 6 (her parents and the kids)....
Anyway expectations low unless we get some news. If my date gets turned down, I'll be looking to play yesterdays extremes and nothing in the middle.
Have a great weekend.
Weekly Numbers
Range - 2085.25 -> 2115.50
Value - 2095.25-> 2106.75
S1 2095.75, R1 - 2113.75
