No more prep till the New Year - taking a break and spending time with the family.

Have a great Christmas & New Year!

Thanks for all your insight during the short time I have been a subscriber to your daily thread! It has been a learning experience and one I am most thankful for. I wish you and your family a peaceful and relaxing time over Christmas and New Year! Looking forward to following you in the New Year! Kind Regards and Many thanks Shaun.

I find your tools and insight very useful, keep up the great work

9th January



Volume a little on the low side so this month. I would have expected an increase yesterday. You would expect most traders back off vacation this week and volume to recover. So we may be seeing lack of interest overall at these prices.



Looking to last week - we don't have a great deal of trade anywhere from here down to 2698 - so if we do breakdown, I think we could be below 2700 pretty quickly.



So far overnight, yesterdays high has held. I'll be watching the regular day trader levels as we go into today.

Plan
- Short bias below yesterdays high
- caution short towards yesterdays low/value low (and might be a long opportunity)
- looking for 2700 as a target if we break the lows
- above yesterdays high, will take go with trades

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2647.50 -> 2743
Value - 2695.75 -> 2742.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2736.50 / 2737 -> 2748.50
Value - 2738 -> 2746.50
Globex - 2742.75 -> 2748.25

Settlement – 2746.75

Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50, 2673.25, 2698.25

10th Jan



No sign of a let up in the moves up yesterday. So we are in fresh territory still, so nothing historically to play off on the dailies.



I still see that we haven't traded much below, so we could easily fall back. As we trade more here, that can build a base for a move up. So we'll either range here for a move up or build a larger range after a move down. I don't think we'll just move up forever. So it's a matter of waiting to see where the range develops before we get any strong signals in my opinion.



We rejected new highs yesterday but volume overall is still low. I don't see that rejection as significant. What is more significant today hopefully is the fact we've pretty much had a hard ceiling at 2752 - yesterdays value low.

Plan
- Overall bias is up
- if 2752 holds off the open, then looking to join downside momentum
- there's no range evident so no "no-go" prices today, so if yesterdays VAL breaks - I'll be quite happy to play upside then look out for the VAH/High yesterday as targets
- Pretty much a wait & see day playing around yesterdays range. Fresh territory, not much to play off

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2636.50 -> 2760
Value - 2641.75 -> 2752.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2742.75 / 2748 -> 2760
Value - 2752 -> 2759.50
Globex - 2745 -> 2752

Settlement – 2752.25

Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50, 2673.25, 2698.25

11th Jan



As discussed - the more time we spend up here, the more chance we have of this being a base for the next move up. 37 seems to be holding well and we poked through it yesterday but couldn't gain any traction. So there's no sign of sellers taking advantage of the relative lack of trade from 2700-2737.



The profile is building into a very even distribution topping out around 74. Indicating a likelihood of more rangebound activity.



A day trader type day yesterday - we held the previous days Val, the overnight high and the weeks low. So expecting rangebound behavior today and on the lookout for break.

Plan
- look to play 37-54 range. Expect moves above to be headfakes
- other than that look @ the day trader levels - yesterday/overnight range, weekly range, yesterdays Value. Impossible to know which will hold, so look for a reaction away from a level to jump on board
- No hurry to trade today as we do have fairly decent ranges, so will wait for a good spot

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2636.50 -> 2760
Value - 2641.75 -> 2752.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 2736.50 -> 2752
Value - 2744.25 -> 2750.25
Globex - 2747.75 -> 2754.50

Settlement – 2750.50

Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50, 2673.25, 2698.25

12th January




A pop up yesterday, fresh air above and looking to see if we can fall back and find support, range or if the market will continue up. Volume continues to be weak on these moves up but as per yesterdays prep, we did build volume for 3 days which gives us a potential base.




3760 is the top of the old range, so that's an obvious line in the sand for any moves up - it would also be a sizeable pullback.





So first looking at yesterdays high/value high which is also a few ticks below the overnight low. Looking for an initial move down off the open if we stay at these highs but that could just be a rebalance off the open, so not worth marrying any early shorts. Watching the usual day trader levels but other than that, it's all about where the volume comes in and what they decide to do. Overnight volume is much lower than the volume from 9:30 am EST onwards, so if those newer traders don't like these prices, they'll take us down.

Plan
- No bias
- Wait to see which way volume takes us OR if everyone stands back in 'wait & see' mode
- very wary of initial moves down

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2636.50 -> 2776.75
Value - 2739.75 -> 2754.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 2747.75 / 2752.75 -> 2768.50
Value - 2757 -> 2766
Globex - 2766.75 -> 2776.75

Settlement – 2769.50

Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50, 2673.25, 2698.25

15th January



Up, up and awaaay. Fresh air up here, so not a lot to do other than look behind us for clues of what might happen if we do fall a bit.



2760 below is the top of the lower distribution. There's not much trade between there and where we are now, so a slide down is theoretically easy until we build a base for a move up - like we did last week.



The right most session here is the overnight session. Go 2 sessions back and you see Thursday night/Friday morning. You can see Friday day time (US) was pretty flat. So most progression up is overnight. The day session traders seem to be accepting the moves though. Thursday was the same deal.

Plan
- No bias
- Looking for an early trade
- After that - looking to see if we react around the day trader levels and rotate around the overnight range
- Other than that, it's pretty open - so it's mostly a wait & see day. I find it hard to be convinced about these high prices but I don't want to sell against momentum!

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2636.50 -> 2788.75
Value - 2739.00 -> 2757.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2752.75 -> 2766.75
Value - 2767.25 -> 2773.25
Globex - 2770 -> 2788.75

Settlement – 2792

Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50, 2673.25, 2698.25

16th January



Not much action yesterday, so we are in the same place from an analysis perspective.



2760 below is the top of the lower distribution. There's not much trade between there and where we are now, so a slide down is theoretically easy until we build a base for a move up - like we did last week.



As we go into today, I'll be mostly watching this upper range and how we trade around it 2789.75 -> 2798.25. We didn't build volume at these new prices, so if we can break to the downside, we could see a nice run down.


Plan
- No bias
- Looking for an early trade
- After that - looking to see if we react around the day trader levels and rotate around the overnight range
- Other than that, it's pretty open - so it's mostly a wait & see day. I find it hard to be convinced about these high prices but I don't want to sell against momentum!

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2636.50 -> 2788.75
Value - 2739.00 -> 2757.75

Daily Numbers
Holiday yesterday....
Globex - 2792 -> 2798.25

Settlement – Holiday yesterday

Today only - 2789.75 -> 2798.25

Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50, 2673.25, 2698.25

17 Jan



A bit of a wild day yesterday - we may new all time highs overnight & again in the day session but then dropped back through 2770.



Not much on the weekly profile yet to get excited about - I would be wary above 2790 that we may range from there to about 96 where that bulge in the profile is.



Yesterday was a big day but in the grand scheme of things, the drop doesn't even count as a pullback. So be on the lookout for more downside, I think the market is ready for it. I'd look out at 60 below but if we get through that I'd be looking for 2700's. There really isn't much traded below us.

This doesn't mean it will go down - just that if we get some downside momentum, I think we can have a good run south.

Plan
- No bias
- Looking for an early trade
- After that - looking to see if we react around the day trader levels and rotate around the overnight range
- A close eye on yesterdays low because I think we have great potential downside if we can break it.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2769.25 -> 2808.50
Value - 2785.50 -> 2808.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2769.25 -> 2808.50
Value - 2781.50 -> 2808.50
Globex - 2779 -> 2786.50

Settlement –2782.50

Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50, 2673.25, 2698.25