28th June



Volatile and unpredictable - sort of makes doing prep a bit pointless but it's still always good to take a step back and have a plan of attack.

Despite the volatility yesterday, we didn't actually go anywhere. There's lots of news hitting the wires, so it's just a matter of prime goal to assess the volatility.



Profile wasn't relevant yesterday - we pretty much ran the weeks range, so if it was ignored by that move, it's proabably not going to be that significant today.



Yesterdays low has held, which is the low of the range marked out on the daily charts above. We couldn't get the break below 2700 that we were looking for yesterday. I do expect a reaction there. For now, the low has held so any moves up are worth a shot. But it's really a crap shoot with the macro-economic stuff hitting the wires.

Plan
- Look for open trade
- after that, wait 15 mins to see what the volatility looks like
- ear on the news
- try to scale in to any volatile moves. Start small on all trades as new can hit any time.
- Look out for volatility hitting later in the day - dont be fooled by a slow start

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2700.50-> 2758
Value - not worth watching now

Daily Numbers
Range - 2701 -> 2748
Value - elongated day - not meaningful
Globex - 2702.75 -> 2717.25

Settlement – 2705

Long Term Levels - 2556.50, 2590, 2687.75, 2700, 2810, 2887

29th June




Eye's on 2745 today - the top of the old range (white box). If that holds, we should see shorts come in to take us back to 2700. If we can break then it's eye's on 2800.

News risk is still high, market is volatile but long term directionless.



We are just above the weeks distribution right now - so we do risk falling back from here.



All trade overnight is above yesterdays value.

Plan
- Bias up - but with the caveat we might not make it far past 45. So 45 is the line in the sand today and will play moves away from it in either direction.
- ears on the news.
- be wary of initial choppy action again
- also be wary of any initial move down off the open which might just be rebalancing after the overnight move up

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2693.25> 2758
Value - 2706.50 -> 2731.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2693.25 / 2693.50 -> 2726.25
Value - 2697.75 -> 2713.75
Globex - 2716.75 -> 2737.25

Settlement – 2719.50

Long Term Levels - 2556.50, 2590, 2687.75, 2700, 2810, 2887

2nd July



Sill not moving anywhere. Volume is decent. News risk is still high.



Eyes on 2705 & 2732 - that's where we traded most last week.



A big push down overnight - be wary of any push up off the open as it may just be rebalancing. Overall market is directionless - we seem to have settled back into the old range.

Plan
- opening trade on today
- looking for a move away from a level - but with no bias at all
- will try to scale in as we do still have a healthy range and that also plays into the overall directionlesness....(If that's even a word!)

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2693.25> 2758
Value - 2705.50 -> 2733

Daily Numbers
Range - 2716.75 / 2720.25-> 2745.50
Value - 2733.75-> 2742.25
Globex - 2716.75 -> 2737.25

Settlement – 2721.50

Long Term Levels - 2556.50, 2590, 2687.75, 2700, 2810, 2887

3rd July



Going nowhere at the moment. Eyes on 45.25 as we go to the top of the box.



We traded around last weeks value area, which is interesting - we extended out the bottom and now the top - so if we fall back down past 30, look for chop back down to 06.



Overnight trade has stuck just above yesterdays value. And the overnight range was obviously significant yesterday, so eyes on the daytradr levels being in play today - because, there's not a lot else to trade around!

Plan
- Early trade on
- look for trades away from 45.25 once we hit it
- Also looking for shorts below 30
- Other than that, not interested


Weekly Numbers
Range - 2693.25> 2758
Value - 2705.50 -> 2733

Daily Numbers
Range - 2698.50 / 2700.50 -> 2728.50
Value - 2704 -> 2717
Globex - 2720.50 -> 2739.25

Settlement – 2727.25

Long Term Levels - 2556.50, 2590, 2687.75, 2700, 2810, 2887

DionysusToast 

3rd July Going nowhere at the moment. Eyes on 45.25 as we go to the top of the box. We traded around last weeks value area, which is interesting - we extended out the bottom and now the top - so if we fall back down past 30, look for chop back down to 06. Overnight trade has stuck just above yesterdays value. And the overnight range was obviously significant yesterday, so eyes on the daytradr levels being in play today - because, there's not a lot else to trade around! Plan - Early trade on - look for trades away from 45.25 once we hit it - Also looking for shorts below 30 - Other than that, not interested Weekly Numbers Range - 2693.25> 2758 Value - 2705.50 -> 2733 Daily Numbers Range - 2698.50 / 2700.50 -> 2728.50 Value - 2704 -> 2717 Globex - 2720.50 -> 2739.25 Settlement – 2727.25 Long Term Levels - 2556.50, 2590, 2687.75, 2700, 2810, 2887

Thanks much always

9th July



Market heading up - so looking to see what will happen when we hit 2800/top of this range....

Generally speaking, I'm always a little suspicious of moves up in holiday weeks but Fridays volume wasn't too low.. so continuation is favored...



Next resistance down is 2740 - so if we do move down, there's not much trade from here to there, so any drop could be quite fast.



Also eyes on 2756.75 too - the late pullback.

Plan
- Bias Long
- watching 56.75 and 40.00 if the market pulls back
- Also watching the day trader levels
- Wait for a reaction from a known or developing level, then jump in if we see volume in that direction.


Weekly Numbers
Range - 2698.50-> 2766.25
Value - 2713.50 -> 2739

Daily Numbers
Range - 2631.25 / 2734.50 -> 2766.25
Value - 2750.50 -> 2766
Globex - 2761.75 -> 2774.75

Settlement – 2763

Long Term Levels - 2556.50, 2590, 2687.75, 2700, 2810, 2887

DionysusToast 

3rd July Going nowhere at the moment. Eyes on 45.25 as we go to the top of the box. We traded around last weeks value area, which is interesting - we extended out the bottom and now the top - so if we fall back down past 30, look for chop back down to 06. Overnight trade has stuck just above yesterdays value. And the overnight range was obviously significant yesterday, so eyes on the daytradr levels being in play today - because, there's not a lot else to trade around! Plan - Early trade on - look for trades away from 45.25 once we hit it - Also looking for shorts below 30 - Other than that, not interested Weekly Numbers Range - 2693.25> 2758 Value - 2705.50 -> 2733 Daily Numbers Range - 2698.50 / 2700.50 -> 2728.50 Value - 2704 -> 2717 Globex - 2720.50 -> 2739.25 Settlement – 2727.25 Long Term Levels - 2556.50, 2590, 2687.75, 2700, 2810, 2887

DionysusToast 

9th July Market heading up - so looking to see what will happen when we hit 2800/top of this range.... Generally speaking, I'm always a little suspicious of moves up in holiday weeks but Fridays volume wasn't too low.. so continuation is favored... Next resistance down is 2740 - so if we do move down, there's not much trade from here to there, so any drop could be quite fast. Also eyes on 2756.75 too - the late pullback. Plan - Bias Long - watching 56.75 and 40.00 if the market pulls back - Also watching the day trader levels - Wait for a reaction from a known or developing level, then jump in if we see volume in that direction. Weekly Numbers Range - 2698.50-> 2766.25 Value - 2713.50 -> 2739 Daily Numbers Range - 2631.25 / 2734.50 -> 2766.25 Value - 2750.50 -> 2766 Globex - 2761.75 -> 2774.75 Settlement – 2763 Long Term Levels - 2556.50, 2590, 2687.75, 2700, 2810, 2887

10th July



So we've hit the top of the range and fallen back. Doesn't mean we aren't going to break through yet but there really wasn't much volume yesterday to support this if we pullback.



Really nothing below us to support this move. So we could have a swift move back to 40 at which point I'd see us slowing down.



We'll keep an eye on the daily levels. Volume was low yesterday. We have upside momentum but are are a decision point. Gauging the end of the pullback is problematic as there's really nothing to lean on.

Plan
- Join downside momentum if it looks like the range is holding
- Eyes on the daytradr levels for the market holding but I see them as low confidence
- Longs above 2800 but eyes out for a headfake (absorption on offer side after a break)


Weekly Numbers
Range - 2698.50-> 2766.25
Value - 2713.50 -> 2739

Daily Numbers
Range - 2761.75 / 2773 -> 2787.25
Value - 2780.75 -> 2786.75
Globex - 2786.25 -> 2797.25

Settlement – 2787.50

Long Term Levels - 2556.50, 2590, 2687.75, 2700, 2810, 2887

11th July



No shock here, we got to the high of the range and we moved down from it. As mentioned in yesterdays prep, there's not a lot below us to clue us in to where this move might end.



We did mention the day trader levels being in play and we've dipped into last weeks range and moved up from there. We also held overnight high range overnight. Same level has held in todays overnight session.



But mostly - the move down and subsequent bounce up after testing last weeks high was all overnight.

Volume was low yesterday and so was the range. So eyes on the range/volatility from the open.

Plan
- look for early trade on the chance volume/volatility is low
- eyes on the volume/volatility - if it's low - look for scalps off YM/NQ
- watch for downside continuation to confirm range is holding, shorts below overnight high if so.
- be wary of a rebalancing up at the open (a rebalance) - and don't allow any early longs to go offside as it may be short lived
- watch for headfakes through the high if we do pop up. Obviously if we do break the range topside, that is a buying opportunity

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2761.75 -> 2797.75
Value - 2768.75 -> 2791.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2786.25 / 2788.50 -> 2797.25
Value - 2791.75 -> 2795.75
Globex - 2765.75 -> 2797.75

Settlement – 2796.75

Long Term Levels - 2556.50, 2590, 2687.75, 2700, 2810, 2887