11th May



My bias is towards the range holding - so really expecting more upside to get to 2095-2105 and then reverse down to test the low of the range. Obviously if we can't make it to the 2095 upside then we have the prospect of a narrowing range, which isn't ideal trading conditions. Anyway - bias long again today.



Weekly profile isn't helping much. The lower distribution high is at 2060 and there's not that much trade between here and there. We may need to build volume 2070-2077 area before another leg up.



Yesterday we were looking at the potential of a pullback down to 58.75-60.25, we got as low as 61.25. So I'm still watching that area.

Plan
- bias long still
- not much volume to lean on below, so wary of a drop down to 2060 area
- look for volume building above 2070 to break upside to give us some volume to lean on for support
- Go with any break upside but be patient today and not take longs till they are confirmed (because not much below us to lean on).
- take shorts only below 2070

Weekly Numbers
Range 2048 -> 2079.75
Value - 2049 -> 2068
S1 - 2032, R1 - 2075.75

Daily Numbers
Range 2048 / 2061.25 -> 2079.75
Value 2067.25 -> 2076.25
Globex 2069.50 -> 2078.75

Settlement - 2077.50

Today only - 2060-2060.25, 2070

Long Term 2100, 1996.75, 1920, 1833.75, 1804.75

12th May



I'm still biased towards hitting the top of the range before rolling over and continuing along the range in the white box.



The weeks profile is filling out and right now we are just above center, so not the best place to be taking trades.



Yesterday the plan was:

Quoting 

- bias long still - not much volume to lean on below, so wary of a drop down to 2060 area - look for volume building above 2070 to break upside to give us some volume to lean on for support - Go with any break upside but be patient today and not take longs till they are confirmed (because not much below us to lean on). - take shorts only below 2070

We had a few decent swings in the AM and did continue to build volume above 2070 but in the end we broke downside to 2060. We've also filled in the profile, which means we can't really say that a break upside will give us a run.

We've have dipped below the 2060 but I'm still looking at that area as the line in the sand today. Looking for longs above 2060 and chop below it.

Plan:
- look for longs above 2060 but caution again at 2071.50 area
- target yesterdays high on longs
- for downside, shorts off yesterdays high/vah or a break below yesterdays low but expecting chop on any move down below the low

Weekly Numbers
Range 2048 -> 2079.75
Value - 2049.50 -> 2069.50
S1 - 2032, R1 - 2067.75

Daily Numbers
Range 2059.75-> 2078.50 / 2078.75
Value 2065.75 -> 2078.25
Globex 2057.50 -> 2067.75

Settlement - 2058

Today only - 2060, 2071.50

Long Term 2100, 1996.75, 1920, 1833.75, 1804.75

13th May



It does appear that we are now working our way down but I am now neutral biased. It looks like we may suffer a narrowing range.



The profile doesn't have much for us, other than we are back to Mondays lows which does give us a potential long fade trade.



We are basically back to Mondays lows. So this week we've moved up and back down. That's why I don't feel strongly about this push down in the past few days.

It is Friday, so it might be a bit of a lame duck day. Unlike the past 2 days I have no levels that I think will break and give us a decent move. We aren't near the 71.50 and the 60 level broke yesterday,

The plan:
- look for the 'traditional' day trader plays off yesterdays range/value
- look for shorts more aggressively if we break 2048 in the day session (although like yesterday, the overnight low might take some time to get through.
- other than that look for momentum moves
- if DOW/NASDAQ aren't moving together or volume is very low - there's a high chance of getting chopped around...

Weekly Numbers
Range 2046.25 -> 2079.75
Value - 2049.25 -> 2069.50
S1 - 2032, R1 - 2067.75

Daily Numbers
Range 2048.50-> 2069.75 / 2072.75
Value 2053 -> 2065
Globex 2046.25 -> 2060.75

Settlement - 2058.75

Today only - 2048

Long Term 2100, 1996.75, 1920, 1833.75, 1804.75

16th May



Looking left, there is a lot of chop. So from a long term perspective, I don't think the long term view helps us today. What we do have to watch over the next few days, is how the action unfolds.

We failed to get to the high, now we are moving towards the low of the range (or presumed low). If we fail to get to 2020 (or below), then we are in a narrowing range. That means the knock-on effect is that we could get some tough action.

So far, the action is fine. Most days we are still managing 20 points or so. For today though, I'm not looking for too much from the longer term picture other that downside moves should have better follow through. Upside I see chop.



So far, we are below the major distribution from last week. So an eye on 2049.25 if we move up.



We have had a good move down over the past few sessions, so a move up from here, doesn't necessarily mean we are done to the downside.

Todays Plan:
- watch 49.25, if it holds we could have a good run down. It has held overnight, so that may actually be played out
- Look for a break of the overnight low to give us a decent downside run but play the upside more cautiously as it may be choppy
- Other than that follow Fridays VAL/VAH/Range and the intraday volume steps

Weekly Numbers
Range 2038.50 -> 2079.75
Value - 2049.25 -> 2067.25
S1 - 2028.25, R1 - 2069.50

Daily Numbers
Range 2038.50-> 2063.50
Value 2047.25 -> 2063.25
Globex 2035 -> 2049.25

Settlement - 2043.50

Long Term 2100, 1996.75, 1920, 1833.75, 1804.75

18th May



As we can see, the range is narrowing. As such, my preference today would be to see us break out of this to the downside as I feel that's the best chance of a decent move. We did have a decent run down yesterday. If we move back up, we have more chance of choppy action.



We can see that we are building volume below the main distribution from last week. If we could move up to that 46.25-49.25 area and then start moving down, I think we have a good chance of speculative selling jumping on that move.



The shorter term picture is quite indecisive. We are still having decent range days though. We have to be wary of the area between yesterdays low an the weeks low as that could well hold on a move down.

Todays Plan
- No bias going into today
- Look for continuation short plays if we move up to 46.25-49.25 and then start moving down
- Similarly look for continuation long plays off yesterdays low/this weeks low
- Other than that watch the volume profile/other indices to decide whether or not to jump on any developing moves as we have no bias.
- Be wary of moves upside because of the potential for chop

Weekly Numbers
Range 2035 -> 2069.50
Value - 2037.50 -> 2059
S1 - 2028.25, R1 - 2069.50

Daily Numbers
Range 2036.75-> 2062.75
Value 2044.50 -> 2062.50
Globex 2038.50 -> 2046.75

Settlement - 2043.50

Long Term 2100, 1996.75, 1920, 1833.75, 1804.75

19th May



Still quite an indecisive market but still decent ranges. Volume yesterday was over 2 million contracts but we ended up pretty much where we started.



We can see that this weeks lower distribution is continuing to build, with extremes are 36.25 and 46.25, so watching how that builds today.



This is a great picture. We opened at 39.25 and settled at 41.50 but we had a 27 point range. We pushed up, ranged from 44.50 to 52 for a few hours and then we had our moves. The range is not typical of indecisive action but the activity is. There's not so much you can plan other than planning to react.

Plan
- Look for a breakdown of the range to give us a more decisive move if it occurs
- Other than that, follow the volume and play the extremes of intraday volume that develops
- also look to play off the overnight volume area

Weekly Numbers
Range 2030.75 -> 2069.50
Value - 2034.25 -> 2059
S1 - 2028.25, R1 - 2069.50

Daily Numbers
Range 2036.75-> 2062.75
Value 2044.50 -> 2053.75
Globex 2032.75 -> 2044.75

Today only - 36.25, 46.25

Settlement - 2041.50

Long Term 2100, 1996.75, 1920, 1833.75, 1804.75

20th May



Another 2 million contract day where we ended the day session close to where we started. We have tested the bottom of our presumed range and so I am looking for signs that we have decent upside participation today. Of course, we could move down in which case my short term target is 2000.



Above us we have the step in the profile at 2046.25, so that's worth watching after the open.



Yesterday, we had a great run down off the open and then chop. It is Friday today, so it could be that nothing much of interest occurs and we have to wait for next week to see if our presumed range will hold. Still, it's worth considering the prospect of a run close to the open.

Plan
- upside bias, based on our presumed range holding
- look to scale into any fast paced move that develops close to the open
- don't get caught in the chop if the market settles into a range

Weekly Numbers
Range 2022 -> 2069.50
Value - 2033-> 2054
S1 - 2028.25, R1 - 2069.50

Daily Numbers
Range 2021.75 -> 2039.75 / 2044.75
Value 2024.50 -> 2034
Globex 2037.25 -> 2047.50

Today only - 2046.25

Settlement - 2038.75

Long Term 2100, 1996.75, 1920, 1833.75, 1804.75

23rd May



On Friday we had:

Quoting 

Another 2 million contract day where we ended the day session close to where we started. We have tested the bottom of our presumed range and so I am looking for signs that we have decent upside participation today. Of course, we could move down in which case my short term target is 2000. Yesterday, we had a great run down off the open and then chop. It is Friday today, so it could be that nothing much of interest occurs and we have to wait for next week to see if our presumed range will hold. Still, it's worth considering the prospect of a run close to the open.

Our "presumed range" (white box) still appears to be holding but Friday was a tight day, so we didn't have follow through either way, just a small move up. So I'm still going in biased to the upside overall.



We spent the most time last week between 2041.75 and 2046.25. So looking at both areas as potentials for buyers to step in. Then also looking at the value low but above volume just tapers off, so not interested to much in the value high.



We are starting off the overnight session trading inside Fridays day session. When that occurs, I'm always on the lookout for a range day. Not saying it WILL happen but it often happens and it's enough to have a heads up just in case. So I'll be watching Fridays range and value area with interest.

Plan
- If we are still trading in Fridays range at the open, watch for low volume and a hold at Fridays day session extremes
- Overall a long bias (although expecting swings both ways as is the norm for the ES) with a view to hitting 2100 before rolling back over (the white box).
- expect a hold of a downside test of 41.75 or 46.25 areas to bring in more speculative buyers and give the chance for a run, similarly look for acceleration past Fridays high if we get above average participation
- not seeing any level below that looks like it will give us a run if broken, so play the downside with more caution

Plan
- upside bias, based on our presumed range holding
- look to scale into any fast paced move that develops close to the open
- don't get caught in the chop if the market settles into a range

Weekly Numbers
Range 2022 -> 2069.50
Value - 2034.50 -> 2054
S1 - 2025, R1 - 2071.50

Daily Numbers
Range 2037.25 -> 2042.75 / 2055.50
Value 2047.75 -> 2053.25
Globex 2043.50 -> 2056

Today only - 2041.75, 2046.25

Settlement - 2050

Long Term 2100, 1996.75, 1920, 1833.75, 1804.75

24th May



Yesterday we had

Quoting 

We are starting off the overnight session trading inside Fridays day session. When that occurs, I'm always on the lookout for a range day. Not saying it WILL happen but it often happens and it's enough to have a heads up just in case. So I'll be watching Fridays range and value area with interest.

So today we watch to see if the range will build or if we'll break out. Obviously, the longer we stay here, the more volume builds & the stronger the break.

There is still a case for us being in a downward channel, so I'm looking for that as an obstacle to my overall long bias.



Not much to say here other than we are still holding above the 2046.25 level, so still keep an eye on that. Saying that, it's around the bottom of the range anyway.



I spoke to a few traders that got chopped around yesterday (yes Daniel ). If volume is really low it can get a bit random. I didn't take a trade yesterday. Low volume, Dow doing one thing, Nasdaq doing another. At least now we have a but more volume built up so the range is better defined, so hopefully it;ll be more interesting. Saying that - it would not be unusual for us to sit here till Thursday.

Plan
- Overall bias is the upside but wary of the appearance of a downward channel
- look for a break off the open, as it any initial volatility may quickly fade
- Fade the range, look for good headfakes - (weak pops out of the range that are followed by absorption) as the best entries
- only take continuations outside the range if we get a high volume break
- Try not to fall asleep (seriously - lack of focus can be a killer on slow days for me)


Weekly Numbers
Range 2022 -> 2069.50
Value - 2034.50 -> 2054
S1 - 2025, R1 - 2071.50

Daily Numbers
Range 2043.50 / 2044.25 -> 2052.75 / 2056
Value 2047.75 -> 2051.25
Globex 2041.25 -> 2053

Today only - 2046.25

Settlement - 2045.25

Long Term 2100, 1996.75, 1920, 1833.75, 1804.75
May 20th, 2016 04:13 PM

25th May



My bias is to the red arrows - completing the range to the upside and then rolling back down. Of course, we could fall short or headfake through, so an eye on the volume and order flow as we get up there.




An eye on 2070 to the downside, if it breaks, there's not much below us till we get to 2055, so a breakdown is something to look out for.



We had a late pullback to 2070 yesterday and again we see not much below it. 2058 is our breakout point.

Plan
- Upside biased
- look out for an initial reaction downside off the open as we have had a big push up overnight
- cautious as we approach 2100 but not interested in shorts up there unless we get a down swing with significant volume
- looking to jump on a break of 2070 to the downside.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2041.25 -> 2085.50
Value - 2041.50 -> 2069.50
S1 - 2025, R1 - 2071.50

Daily Numbers
Range 2041.25 / 2056 -> 2077.25
Value 2068.25 -> 2076.75
Globex 2073.50 -> 2085.50

Today only - 2070, 2058

Settlement - 2075

Long Term 2100, 1996.75, 1920, 1833.75, 1804.75