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We ended yesterday 7 ticks up on Tuesdays settlement. So really, a fairly neutral day.
Yesterday we dipped down through the 06.50 level for the second time (once in Globex, once in the pit session). We'd gone as low as 07.50 on Tuesday and so yesterday buyers jumped in on what was effectively the 3rd attempt at breaking through the level.
Going into today, we have to look for signs of whether this is the end of the downmove or if we are just shaking out some shorts before another push down.
Above 36.50, I'd say we should head up to 1890 again. If we roll below that then I think the next attempt at 06.50 should break and see us run down some more.
The weekly profile doesn't tell us much. It's pretty evenly distributed across the week. I would keep an eye on the weekly value area though. If it breaks above that and then holds in particular.
On the split globex/pit profile - we can see the Tuesday low just short of 06.50 and the globex session down through 1904. When the pit session opened we opened, Globex was short and that does often result in a push up but we got follow through to the low 20's. We also had a later low at 1912.75.
So today I'm watching to see if we get a reaction at 12.75 or yesterdays high/value high. If we do, I can see people coming in to fade that. If we hit the highs first, we could get enough momentum to get thhrough 06.50. If we descend without a test, it may bounce again. Still - I see the longs from these lows as having the highest capacity for puking out if they can't get any headway, so I think downside moves have much more potential than upside ones.
Weekly Numbers Range - 1903 -> 1937.50
Value - 1912.25 -> 1926.50
S1 1892.50, R1 1962
We finally had a proper breakdown through the 06.50 level and now we are down to our 'tentative' levels - 1891.25 and 1885.25. This is an area I am expecting a reaction but by my way of doing things we have 2 candidates for the level, so let's see if one "wins" by giving us at least a short term reaction.
So for today - looking for a reaction off that level. Once again, that could be the end of the down move or it could just be a pause before we push down some more. We can see the lower range to the left and there's no reason we can't get into there to work our way down to the mid 1800s.
Looking at the weekly profile, we can see we are now well below the upper distribution. That really starts at 1904, close to our 1906.50 level - so that's a level going into today. It would be good to touch the that was support and see it turn into resistance as more shorts should join us then.
Yesterday we didn't get up to the 36 area we were hoping for a reversal but we did tick through the globex high 3 ticks before rolling over. We didn't drop straight away but once we broke through the first hours low, traders had the confidence to short in anger. A failure above yesterdays high/globex high is pretty common in terms of having traders jump on board, it just seems most waited for the breakout. That's twice this week we've seen this. We have a single print at 1918 which is a level to watch for today if we manage to get back up there.
Yesterday we were also watching 12.75 - the swing low on Wednesday and Globex low. We didn't reverse off it but after going through, we did come back up and see sellers jump in to see the last push down - so I'm also watching for 12.75 today if we make it back up there.
We can see we made it 4 ticks through our top "tentative" line in the sand - but it's still early in the Globex session, it'll probably move down more before the pit open.
So as per yesterday
"today I'm watching to see if we get a reaction at 12.75 or yesterdays high/value high. If we do, I can see people coming in to fade that. If we hit the highs first, we could get enough momentum to get thhrough 06.50. If we descend without a test, it may bounce again. Still - I see the longs from these lows as having the highest capacity for puking out if they can't get any headway, so I think downside moves have much more potential than upside ones."
Longs will get nervous before shorts - so whilst I am looking at those downside as potential support, it's not going to take much for longs to bail out.
Weekly Numbers
Range - 1980.25 -> 1937.50
Value - 1910-> 1929
S1 1892.50, R1 1962
Daily Numbers
Range - 1899.75 -> 1825.75
Value - 1903 -> 1916
Globex - 1890.25 -> 1906.75
Friday we had a bounce off one of our "tentative" lines, so I'm adding that to the levels at the bottom (1891.25). Once again the question is "are we done to the downside and moving back up to 1990 or are we going to find resistance and test the low again?".
The next level to the upside is very close - 1936.50 and above that we have 1947.50. A bounce off either could bring in lots of sellers. To the downside we have 17.50 which hasn't been so significant of late.
Last weeks value high is 26.50, so that level is worth watching if we get rejection and it acts as support.
Looking at the split Globex/Pit profile, we can see that Fridays put session just took back Thursdays losses. We had a breakout at 15.25 and we had a late pullback to 20.75, to those are shorter term levels to watch for a reaction with a lower expectation of an extended move if they hold.
So far Globex is very long, so that could cause an initial move down off the open.
Also - be aware that it is usually dead this time of year, so don't be shocked if these moves start to die out.
Weekly Numbers Range - 1980.25 -> 1937.50
Value - 1907 -> 1926.50
S1 1896.25, R1 1944
Daily Numbers
Range - 1903.75 -> 1928.25
Value - 1904 -> 1921.50
Globex - 1923 -> 1933.25
Apologies for lack of prep yesterday - it was mothers day here in Thailand, so had to keep the wife pampered.
We are still hovering around the 36.50 level and still waiting to see if we will move up from here and get to 1990 or g back down and test the 1890 level again. I'm fairly neutral on which way it will go.
The range is fairly narrow this week. Not sure if that's the summer slowdown arriving or if it's just indecision at these levels. Volume is dropping off with 1.2 million traded Monday and Tuesday which would be high end for summer time chop - let's see if it drops over the next week or so.
Yesterday was interesting. A Range 1928.25-1936, then a drop, then a range 1923.50 -> 1931.75 - so in hindsight a faders day. Keep an eye on 1931.75 today - we settled close to there at 1930.50. So far the Globex range has been mostly above that, so it is potentially an area longs may lean on in the pit session, especially with the VAH being 1931.50.
Overall - still in "wait & see" mode. I'm neutral going in and waiting for signs we'll break up or down. I'll be more than happy to fade if the action is slow. Also more than happy to just sit on my hands today.
Weekly Numbers
Range - 1923.25 -> 1941
Value - 1928.75 -> 1937.75
S1 1896.25, R1 1944
Volume down to 1.1 million yesterday. Whilst the break of 36.50 should mean we now work our way up to 1990 and beyond, I'm looking at this and the 47.50 level is the low of the July range. So whilst I tend to think we are done to the downside until we test the tops again, this level has been significant. So I'm biased long but cautious of a reversal at 47.50.
If we do move up, I expect to chop around as we get through 60 but we might not notice that as we do seem to be lightening up on volume.
A fairly evenly distributed profile this week. We are in the upper distribution. The lower distribution really fattens up around 1939, if we drop below that and trade some volume, I'd expect to see the value low - or 1927 hit.
The Wednesday pit session looks a bit like the Tuesday pit session turned on its head. We started off with a 1934-1939.75 range, then we broke out and ranged 1940.50-1945.25. So another day for the faders.
Look for more of the same today - and keep an eye on 1940.50 - the bottom of the latter range yesterday. We do have a chance of sellers stepping in if 47.50 holds, so we could have a good run down but be prepared for it to be slow again.
Weekly Numbers
Range - 1923.25 -> 1946.50
Value - 1927 -> 1939
S1 1896.25, R1 1944
Looking at the 2 hour chart, it does look as if we want to move up to the high of the range for another test of 1890. As per last week - between 1960-1970, it's been pretty choppy previously, so it might take a while to chew through. Anything down from this 1960 has been a lot more fluid in terms of moves, so I'll be expecting more volatile down moves than up moves. Saying that, we are now hovering around the 59.50 level and that could mean we are building some stops above, so the longer we hover here, the more chance of a pop when it really breaks.
Last week was fairly evenly distributed across the range, I don't really see how the weekly profile or the value areas really help us going into this week.
Friday was interesting. We'd discussed going into summertime chop mode but of course we still have trouble in Ukraine. On Friday we started off in a tight range but got news that Ukraine had attacked Russia and down it went. Liquidity got pulled and we did see a lot of volume come in but we ended up with just 1.8 million contracts traded. After the news, liquidity was down to the mid 100's per level and it was very jumpy.
On the news - we came to within 3 ticks of the 36.50 level before recovering much of what was lost and settling back into a later day range. Going into today, it looks fairly slow in the Globex session (but it's only 2:30am EST as of writing).
We are now way above Fridays settlement 52.50 and we gapped up to open the Globex at 55.75. We have then worked up a further. This makes the Globex session 100% long so far and that increases the chance of an initial sell off. The afternoon high was 53.50 which makes the 52.50-53.50 area a good place for any downside "rebalancing" to stop and has a good chance of buyers jumping in if they see it move up from there.
We can also see that the Globex session has so far got support at the "breakdown point"/single print from Friday at 1956. So we may find support there into the pit session if it doesn't break before the open.
As we open, we have to watch the liquidity and volume, we could see some volume come in as a reaction to Friday and we could see tight rangey summertime action - so first order of the day is to evaluate that. For a slow market, I'll look more to the 1956 for support (presuming we open around 1959). If we see a little more volatility, I'll look for support at 53.50.
Upside, we have 1959.50 above us as potential resistance. If we can build decent volume below that, we might see some legs to a breakout as the stops go. If not and we creep up through it the open, then I expect chop and to just have small opportunities available.
Weekly Numbers
Range - 1923.25 -> 1961
Value - 1930.50 -> 1950.50
S1 1930.25, R1 1968
Daily Numbers
Range - 1937.25 -> 1961
Value - 1942.25 -> 1952.25
Globex - 195.75 -> 1961.25
Volume was pitiful yesterday - 884k contracts traded overall. The range was actually not that bad. I'm expecting to see some really low range days develop - perhaps as low as 5 points in the pit session.
We are close to 1978.25 - a point at which we have rolled over a number of times longer term. Obviously we have low volume but we still have to consider a push up through the highs. Whether this brings us any participation remains to be seen. Big picture is basically whether we will bounce off 1980, headfake through the highs & reverse or actually move on to higher ground.
It's not unusual for a holiday time market (both summer & Christmas/New Year periods) put in a one way move on low volume and then get "corrected back to where it should be" when the volume comes back in.
Yesterday - we started off looking like a slow motion trend day - we build volume over 4-5 ticks, then moves up, then built volume over 3-4 ticks and so on. Not an easy one to get on in the move up as there was very little retrace. We moved up just over 7 points in the first 90 minutes and then went sideways in a 3 and a bit point range for the rest of the day. So today - we will initially look to see how we trade the extremes of that later range - 1965.75 -> 1968.25 (basically the value area) but mostly take cues off the intraday profile as it develops.
Weekly Numbers
Range - 1923.25 -> 1961
Value - 1930.50 -> 1950.50
S1 1930.25, R1 1968
Volume still very low, just 868k. We popped up yesterday through our 1978.25. We got 6 ticks through to 1979.75. We've stalled there for now and we may be done to the upside. So far it's been a grind up this week, so we have to keep an eye out for more of the same.
The next level above is 1985.75. So basically looking for confirmation that the range is now complete to the upside.
Yesterday we got a 9 point range and looking at the profile, we can see churn-move-churn-move. The globex session overnight is actually mostly below settlement - which is the first sign we have of the grind up potentially being over, So today I'm watching the value area from yesterday and the settlement to see if we get signs of resistance. We may actually see some (relative) decent movement if we clearly resist any additional up moves.
Obviously - it could go either way so a grind up is still possible.
Weekly Numbers
Range - 1955.75 -> 1979.75
Value - 1963.50 -> 1979.50
S1 1930.25, R1 1968
The grind up continues. Yesterday we got a tick through our all time high of 1985.75 before pulling back a little. In the globex session we have reached 1987.75. So 2000 - is within reach.
After a run like this, it's worth considering that all of the people buying on the way up are now people who need to sell in order to profit. Sometimes you need a bit of that selling to occur before you can progress higher. Yesterday was relatively volatile but there's still no sign that we've had a decent amount of longs taking profit - leaving less future sellers on balance.
So I think this is still all about whether we can continue to make ground to the upside or if we'll roll over back to 1890. For more upside, I'd like to see us come down to a reference point - maybe 1978.25 and find support there. Or maybe another pop up and test 85.75 - then we could take higher confidence longs.
We can see the volatility going into and during the FOMC minutes yesterday. Today I expect it to be slow again barring any surprises from the employment numbers.
We do have a lot of "future sellers" in the market based on this move up, so if they do get spooked, we could see a good downside move.
What I think would be a mistake at this point, would be trying to pick the top of this move up from 1890. We have now popped the all time high, if buyers start to unwind now, it should be fairly obvious. It's hard for me to pinpoint a good line in the sand that would cause longs concern. We haven't broken a prior days low for a while, so perhaps the globex low and yesterdays low are the best candidates above the 78.25 level.
Weekly Numbers Range - 1955.75 -> 1979.75
Value - 1963.50 -> 1979.50
S1 1930.25, R1 1968
Still grinding up on low volume. 839k contracts yesterday. We are still not getting any retests or shaking any longs out.
At this point, we are very close to the 2000 level. I suspect lots of people are expecting us to get there and that of course, might be the very thing that prevents us reaching the level. If people are targeting 2000, then 'smarter' people will have exit orders in just before the level.
Normally on a level break, we'll be looking to see if it attracts additional buyers. I can't imagine why it would though.
Personally, I would feel a lot better about sustaining the highs if we could pull back to 1985.75 or 1978.25 before continuing.
Right now, any move that spooks buyers could 'snowball' into a big down move and whilst I'll trade to the long side, I really would like to see these longs run for the door because I think that's where the potential for volatility is.
I have my eyes on 1987.50 today as well as 1985.75 as potential retrace points. If 85.75 does break, then I'll be looking for more of a runner to the short side.
I certainly wont be going long at 1999....
Weekly Numbers Range - 1955.75 -> 1992
Value - 1970 -> 1991.50
S1 1930.25, R1 1968
Daily Numbers
Range - 19680.75 (globex) / 1983.50 (pit) -> 1992
Value - 1987.25-> 1990.75
Globex - 1989.25 -> 1991.50
