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DTs Pre Market Prep

  #1061 (permalink)
 
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IBLAB View Post
Always wonderful !TYVM

Thanks

I'm back from a 6 week trip to the UK - so will be a little more consistent now I'm back!

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  #1062 (permalink)
 
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17th August



Labor day is Sept 4th, so we have a little over 2 weeks left of 'summertime trading' and to be honest, it's not been the worse summer ever. Not as good as 2016 but not awful.

As we can see we had a drop down and tested the top of the May-Jul range and that's held. We are now back in the July onwards.

Looking a the past 2 days, it's hard to pick a bias. In theory it should be "traverse to high of this range" - but as that's failed the past 2 days, it doesn't seem like the smartest bet.



We do have an upper distribution showing trade above the low of the larger range. So not much that we couldn't see on the previous chart.



Same here - so the different charts not helping us much in terms of different perspectives.

Plan
- No bias
- Look for an early trade to see if you can squeeze something out of the first swing
- for longs - wait for tests of yesterdays low or range low (2461)
- for shorts - range high is obvious (79.50) but also watch yesterdays high/val low/val high for a reaction.
- In all cases, let it react first and then jump on momentum. If there's no momentum, there's no trade.
- if (like yesterday) liquidity is high - look to use a larger position size

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2441.50 -> 2474
Value - 2462 -> 2470.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2461.50/2462.50 -> 2474
Value - 2466.50 -> 2472.50
Globex - 2462.50 ->2468.25

Settlement – 2467.50

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400

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  #1063 (permalink)
 
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18th August



A big drop yesterday but not huge volume. I don't like to suggest buying a market that has such obvious downside but I would look out at 2416 - the low of the old range.



No use of the weekly profile after this drop... extended moves and profiling don't go well together...



Down 30 points, pretty much from nowhere. Not really sure if we can blame the current news events for this - but there is a lot going on in the news. With the move down on low volume it's more likely a lack of holiday liquidity.

After a big down day, we look for volatility. It is as common to 'snap back up' after a big drop as it is to have a big move down. In my opinion - it's best to go in with no bias, keep an eye on 'volatile or not' and jump on any volatile moves, possibly scaling in to avert risk

Plan
- Look for volatility and jump on it if it occurs
- careful at 2416
- don't go crazy trying to chase the market up and down if it does move.
- don't trade agains momentum at all - no reversal trades if volatility is there.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2423.75 -> 2474
Value - irrelevant today

Daily Numbers
Range - 2428.75 -> 2464 / 2468.50
Value - irrelevant today
Globex - 2423.75 ->2434

Settlement – 2428.75

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400

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  #1064 (permalink)
 Tomash 
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Hi, thanks for the great work

I just have one question. Are you sure about the volume yesterday? Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think that we menaged to get above 2 millions. Do you think that it was a average volume day?

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  #1065 (permalink)
 
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Tomash View Post
Hi, thanks for the great work

I just have one question. Are you sure about the volume yesterday? Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think that we menaged to get above 2 millions. Do you think that it was a average volume day?

Good question. I'm not sure what's going on with my daily charts.

PC is set to BKK time.
Session settings to US time.

If you look in the chart below, you'll see the 2M is showing now...

I'm stumped...

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  #1066 (permalink)
 
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21st August



We've settled down in the bottom of the lower range. We did have volatility on Friday but it did take a while to kick in and there was money to be made on both sides. Volume was decent.

I think we'll have a good run if we can push down again but it's hard to have a bias either way. We are at the bottom of the lower range, so that gives you a reason for a long bias.



We can see there's not much trading last week above 2433, so we could very easily be back to 2460 if we do start to push up.



So far overnight we have stuck in Fridays range. It is still summertime, so it's quite possible we revert back to lower volume, lower volatility action.

Plan
- No bias today
- looking for an early trade - see if I can catch something early on
- If no early trade, hold off for 15 mins to see if the market shows it's hand
- Obvious moves would be shorts below 16 and longs above 33.
- Within that, look at yesterdays range/value range for a reaction. If not - no trades...

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2419.50 -> 2474
Value - irrelevant today - too elongated
S1 - 2406, R1 - 2460.50,

Daily Numbers
Range - 2419.50 -> 2439.50
Value - 2425 -> 2434.50
Globex - 2422.75 -> 2431.50

Settlement – 2424.50

Today only - 2416, 2433

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400

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  #1067 (permalink)
 
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22nd August



Bottom of the Jun-Jul range held so far. I am still looking for a good sell off below 16 but bias going into today is upside based on the range low holding. That's bias, not marriage....



We still have low volume from 33 up to 60 and we haven't really gotten into it yet, so look out for a pop if we do continue up.



The low of the old range was 16 and we popped down to 2415.75, a decent pop to the upside which was continued overnight.

Plan
- Long bias - looking for this bounce to continue
- Layer into a position above 35 on the prospect of a run if we do move up
- Look for shorts on failure at the overnight high
- Other than that - follow volume on any intraday reversals as usual - but no real idea where they will have it


Weekly Numbers
Range - 2419.50 -> 2474
Value - irrelevant today - too elongated
S1 - 2406, R1 - 2460.50,

Daily Numbers
Range - 2415.75 -> 2429.50 / 2431.50
Value - 2421.50 -> 2428
Globex - 2427.50-> 2437.25

Settlement – 2428

Today only - 2416, 2433

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400

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  #1068 (permalink)
 
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23rd August



As expected, we carried on up yesterday - we didn't make it to the upper consolidation area yet (the white box above), so caution around 2460.



Same thing here (although a couple of points above 2460), we see the larger distribution from last week.



An interesting day yesterday. A pop up and then a real grind to the upside. I was hoping to see 2460 but we never got there. It was a tough day to trade if you missed the first pop. This goes doubly if you are a permafader 'cause it really did look like it was struggling.

Plan
- Slight Long bias - wary as we get up to 2460, looking for us to hit the other side of the upper range - 2480
- Looking for pullbacks to yesterdays high/low/value high/low
- Looking for more of a 2 sided day today, so happy on either side after a failure to continue

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2415.75 -> 2454.75
Value - 2418.25 -> 2437.25
S1 - 2406, R1 - 2460.50,

Daily Numbers
Range - 2427.50 / 2432.75 -> 2454
Value - 2422 -> 2454
Globex - 2446.50-> 2454.75

Settlement – 2428

Today only - 2452.75

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400

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  #1069 (permalink)
 
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24th August



We moved up during yesterdays day session after moving down overnight. We'd had a decent move overnight and that often leads to a 'rebalance' off the open. So after a down night, we often get a pop up off the open. That pop up has to be treated with suspicion because it might just be a reaction to the underlying stock market opening after a down move on the futures.

Anyway - we got the pop and not much else. Volume isn't bad for the time of year, but there's not much interest. Note that people will be looking at the channel above. Not that I'd trade it - but if the market does react there we could see increased participation to the downside.



This weeks profile doesn't help us much, it is very evenly distributed. I'm still thinking that care should be taken towards 60-62 on any move up.



Not that much to see here either.

So we are between 2 trading ranges right now...

Plan
- no clear bias
- look for an early trade right off the open
- be very wary of reduced volatility
- watch the usual 'yesterday/overnight' levels for a reaction
- other than that - a play it by ear day...


Weekly Numbers

Range - 2415.75 -> 2454.75
Value - 2420.25 -> 2444.25
S1 - 2406, R1 - 2460.50,

Daily Numbers
Range - 2438.75 -> 2447.75 / 2454.74
Value - 2442.75 -> 2446.25
Globex - 2435.25-> 2441.50

Settlement – 2441.50

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400

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  #1070 (permalink)
 
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28th August



Market is sideways - hard to pick a bias considering we are between 2 ranges, so I don't have one, certainly not based on the longer term view.



A lot of the trading last week was focused between 2437.50 and 2449.50. So an eye on that area.



This is confirmed with the daily profiles. We can see probes outside of that range but that's where we seem to be stuck right now.

Plan
- Considering we are stuck in a range, presume it'll hold & look for fades below 37.50 and above 49.50
- Look for an opening trade as we could revert to chop after the open (still in the holiday period)
- Look also for trades of daily/overnight levels. other than that, no trades in the middle of this range.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2415.75 -> 2454.75
Value - 2432.75 -> 2451.75
S1 - 2421, R1 - 2459.25

Daily Numbers
Range - 2437.50 / 2441 -> 2453.50
Value - 2442.50 -> 2448.50
Globex - 2437.50-> 2445

Settlement – 2442.50

Today only 2437.50, 2449.50

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 2400

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