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DTs Pre Market Prep

  #1211 (permalink)
 
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23rd April

Back to trading after the Thai New Year Break. 3 New Years celebrations a year out here keeps things entertaining.



We have continued (albeit messily) around the range we market out a few weeks ago. Looks like volatility has been on/off so I'm starting back resuming with the levels. Let's see how long that lasts!



Quite an ugly profile from last week - eyes on 2696 today as we have a fairly significant step in the profile there.



We've held Fridays value low overnight. I never like weeks where we start off in Fridays range as we often get range weeks from them.

Plan
- Looking for signs range will commence to the upside - caution around 2696 but bullish past that
- Shorts below 2660
- Other than that - looking for obvious momentum to join. First day back, so will be looking to get back into the groove of things and not be too aggressive.

Weekly Numbers

Range - 2659.75-> 2718.50
Value - 2659.75 -> 2716.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2659.75 -> 2694.75 / 2698.25
Value - 2664.75-> 2679.25
Globex - 2666.25 -> 2685

Settlement – 2671.50

Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50, 2673.25, 2698.25, 2810

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  #1212 (permalink)
 
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24th April



Not much move yesterday - as per yesterdays prep - we have to consider the likelyhood of a range week.


Quoting 
We've held Fridays value low overnight. I never like weeks where we start off in Fridays range as we often get range weeks from them.



Not much to see on the VP yet - just confirming typical rangebound action.



We are now at the top of the potential range, so hopefully we'll push up and out. If not it's shorts above 85 and longs below 60.

Plan
- Presume a range between 60-85
- Look for an open trade as it may be choppy later on
- play away from the range only if there's a high volume swing taking us out

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2659.75-> 2718.50
Value - 2659.75 -> 2716.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2657.25 -> 2683 / 2684.50
Value - 2666 -> 2679.50
Globex - 2670 -> 2688

Settlement – 2671.25

Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50, 2673.25, 2698.25, 2810

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  #1213 (permalink)
 
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25th April



We broke out of that early range yesterday, which is good - so now what we want is to hit the low of the range.

That will give us some degree of predictability. Up from here really puts is in a narrowing range from a long term perspective which is an odd thing to day after such a big drop.

We did have some interesting financial news yesterday, apparently fewer people want to spend $1,000 on a telephone every 6 months. And steel price increases caused a warning from Caterpillar which is obviously a bit more of a macro event.

So the "trade war" thing is still in play and very much appearing to create market volatility - so we are at high news risk again.



Profile shows us how fast the move down was. Very little traded between here and 2660.



We can see the run down was pretty much from the open and went on all day. As usual after these days, we go in without a bias but are very wary of a snap back OR A continuation down. In other words - if we see high participation in either direction we go with it as there's a good chance of follow through.

Obviously eyes on Dow and Nasdaq for confirmation of any momentum trade.

Plan
- Looking for a reaction to yesterdays move down - which ever way it goes
- Looking to scale into a trade
- play away from the range only if there's a high volume swing taking us out

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2616-> 2688.50
Value - 2651.50 -> 2688.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2616 -> 2683.75
Value - 2616.50 -> 2665
Globex - 2625.75 -> 2639.75

Settlement – 2635.25

Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50, 2673.25, 2698.25, 2810

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  #1214 (permalink)
 
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26th April




Not being a very technical guy, I'm not sure what this pattern is called... is it a 'wedgie'???

Either way - it's not what we want to see, a market that's coiling up. Not that it hurts us too much going into today - just a heads up that volatility may drop if the range continues to narrow.

So fingers crossed for a Tweet from Trump. Or a Treet.



Profile isn't adding much but we need to get above 2653 areas - so eyes on that on any moves up - we might fail.



Not much from overnight either.

Plan
- No bias
- looking for an early trade in case volatility drops
- need to see volume above 53 for longs and a really anything from 53 down for a short

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2611.25 -> 2688.50
Value - 2631.75 -> 2688.50

Daily Numbers
Range - 2611.25 -> 2644.25
Value - 2621.50-> 2636
Globex - 2639.50 -> 2654.75

Settlement – 2644.50

Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50, 2673.25, 2698.25, 2810

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  #1215 (permalink)
 
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27th April



Still looks like a narrowing range to me but overall volatility is so high. I still have no bias at all here. Would be tempted to be long but nope. Going in neutral



Yesterday we were looking for longs above 53 and we came back over it a few times with all the chop we had after the first 30-4 minutes.



Not the best action yesterday - some grinding up action. Then a few hours sideways across a 10 point range, then a pop. Great if you'd been long early on. Decent for bites out of the swings but hard to stay with a trade IMO.

Overnight, fairly narrow again and heavy volume above from earlier in the week. 66-80 might be choppy because of this.

Plan
- No bias
- range potential 66-80, above 80 I'd be happier to be long that 66-80.
- Will try to get an early trade
- Obviously if we get a volatility break - which is possible any day, any time at the moment - will try to grab something from it.


Weekly Numbers
Range - 2611.25 -> 2688.50
Value - 26315.50 -> 2687.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2639.50 2645.50 -> 2675.50
Value - 2650.75 -> 2668.25
Globex - 2665.25-> 2677.50

Settlement – 2674.50

Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50, 2673.25, 2698.25, 2810

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  #1216 (permalink)
 
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30th April



Still in an ugly location. Narrowing range. Shorter term momentum is upside but I'm neutral bias here.



We are already at the top of the upper distribution from last week, so if that's coming into play we should not get much higher than where we are now - around 2680. If we do turn down, first area to watch is around 2655.



Friday was a complete chop fest but then it was the end of the week. It's an interesting couple of days in front of us. There's no US holiday but there is a Holiday in many countries on May 1st. As it's falling on a Tuesday, it's likely a lot of people in other countries are taking the Monday off too.

So today I put as a quarter holiday and tomorrow half. Overnight trading might be slow but does not necessarily indicate that the day session will be. It just might be that the overnight trade is a lot less revelant today and tomorrow.

Plan
- No bias
- Careful with opening trades as overnight volume is suspect
- Looking to jump on board short term momentum moves, not expecting any specific direction

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2611.25 -> 2688.50
Value - 2638.25-> 2687.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2657.75 -> 2676.25 / 2677.50
Value - 2665.25 -> 2672.25
Globex - 2670 -> 2680.75

Settlement – 2671.50

Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50, 2673.25, 2698.25, 2810

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  #1217 (permalink)
 
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1st May



Market is still in a narrowing range - but still with 40 point days.... Unusual but that's what we have to play with.

Having any sort of bias on these days is tough. But if not sure, you are better off without a bias at all.



Eyes on the lower distribution below at 30 but really - I'm not expecting this to be observing technical levels.



Big march down yesterday but in the grand scheme of things doesn't mean much and we could just have a big march up today.

Plan
- No bias
- looking for volatility to gives us moves we can scale in on.

Not going to do the levels today as I think they are less useful with all this volatility.

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  #1218 (permalink)
 
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2nd May



Range is narrowing. Really directionless. Action was pretty ugly yesterday and volume on the low side. Hopefully we'll get something more lively as there's no holiday today.

Obviously, this coiling up type of action will end up breaking at some point and the result is usually a decent move out of the range. So eyes out for that.



Profile is telling us that there's potential to range 2640 -> 2657 but common sense says we just see more volume in the middle, not because we spent time there but because the volatile days overlapped.

So to me, that invalidates the area.



As per yesterday, there's no direction and so I'd rather go into the day with no bias and no levels. The difference today is we will have more volume and so a chance that we break the range and see an extended move.

We don't want to bank on that though, so we'll be on the lookout to capitalize on fact the range is decent even within this directionless area.

Plan
- look for an early trade - avoid the chop
- join volatility moves, note - the market is busy at odd times at the moment 9:30-10:30 can be dull but then a break and excitement at 11
- watch for a break of the larger range (below 30, above 75)

Not going to do the levels today as I think they are less useful with this lack of direction.

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  #1219 (permalink)
 
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3rd May



More of this unusual directionless, volatile market. We are still coiling into this range, so eyes on a break today and if we can really follow through when it does.



Yesterday was another good example of the intraday volatility at the moment. How we can have a choppy start, then break at any point. Yesterday was quite a late break, in fact it reminds me a bit of trading overnight. Looks good in retrospect but actually involves long periods sitting on your behind doing nothing.

No levels today again

Plan
- Look for an early trade as we may chop off the open
- Take any obvious range trades but not aggressively - good to be selective
- Try to be alert when it breaks

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  #1220 (permalink)
 
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8th May



We are still in the range - big days, small days. No consistency in terms of direction or volatility.

Mr T has promised an announcement on Iran today. It's scheduled for 2pm. Saying that, you never know if he'll tweet his decision before hand or start dropping hints.

So news risk high today!



We are sitting above a distribution from last week just above 2657.50. eyes on that but not much else.



Eyes also below the overnight low. Not much recent trade from here down to 2635, so if we do start to fall, we could end there quickly. Similarly, above 2680 we haven't traded much, so a break up may also attract participation.

Plan
- Look for an early trade at the open
- look for acceleration below the overnight low
- look for acceleration to join above 2680
- I don't see much on in between those price points but if it becomes very volatile, then the volatility could provide opportunity anywhere
- Eyes on the news on Iran - especially if you are trading oil!!

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2591.25 -> 2682.25
Value - 2616.50 -> 2654.75

Daily Numbers
Range - 2661.25 / 2662.50 -> 2681.50
Value - 2671 -> 2679
Globex - 2658.50 -> 2672.25

Settlement – 2670

Long Term Levels - 2401.25, 2480.75, 2510, 2556.50, 2596.50, 2673.25, 2698.25, 2810

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