25th February



We got a nice run down yesterday but still couldn't hold it, so we are back up to the top and the area of indecision. We did get decent volume on the way back up and we need to see if buyers follow through again today. I can't go into today with any bias though.



We can see the range within the range here. It's hard to trust any move in my opinion. If we could go through the range high, come back and test it and find support, it would be an interesting long.



Yesterday highlights what a schizophrenic market it is right now. As it is, I think the game is just play the volatility and not married to a bias on either side. We settled on Wednesday at around 36 and yesterday - after all that movement, settled just 6 points lower.

Any move to the highs of the week I'll be wary of but otherwise, I'll try to follow the volume and be wary that we don't seem to have much overall direction and that could cause a reversal pretty much anywhere.

Weekly Numbers
Range 1886.75 ->1943.75
Value - 1914.75 -> 1940
S1 - 1880.75 R1 - 1937.75

Daily Numbers
Range 1886.75 -> 1931.25
Value 1987.75 - > 1914.75
Globex 1920.25 -> 1938.50

Settlement - 1930.25

Long Term 2109.25, 2006, 1929.25, 1843, 1814, 1773.75

DionysusToast 

Yesterday highlights what a schizophrenic market it is right now. As it is, I think the game is just play the volatility and not married to a bias on either side. We settled on Wednesday at around 36 and yesterday - after all that movement, settled just 6 points lower.

It is schizophrenic but to me it looks like it's just doing what Oil does these days - just my 2 cents.

xplorer 

It is schizophrenic but to me it looks like it's just doing what Oil does these days - just my 2 cents.

Thanks for the heads up!

29th Feb



Early this week, I'm looking for signs of us falling back into the range or the top of the range holding with the prospect of a run up to 2100.

I'm looking for a hold anywhere from here down to 1929 with a view to buyers jumping on when they see that hold. If not, then my presumption will be a trip back to 1800 and more time in the white box.



1935 is worth watching, that's the top of that large distribution of trading from last week, so that's a line in the sand before 1929.



There's not that much above us. It's worth being wary of a move back up to Fridays low or VAL. If that holds, it'll bring in sellers and that might be enough to push us back into the range.

So the plan is
- wait to see if the downside holds for a push up through last weeks high & beyond
- if not & we move below 1929, bias short looking for a run to 1800

Weekly Numbers
Range 1886.75 ->1968.75
Value - 1905.75 -> 1942.25
S1 - 1896.75 R1 - 1978.75

Daily Numbers
Range 1941.75 -> 1961 / 1968.75
Value 1947 - > 1956.50
Globex 1936.50 -> 1946

Settlement - 1942.75
Today only - 1935

Long Term 2109.25, 2006, 1929.25, 1843, 1814, 1773.75

1st March



Yesterday we had "I'm looking for a hold anywhere from here down to 1929 with a view to buyers jumping on when they see that hold. If not, then my presumption will be a trip back to 1800 and more time in the white box."

We poked down to 1927.75 yesterday in the overnight session and did see a move up to 56.25 but we couldn't hold it. So now we are back into the top of the range. So once again, I'm looking to see if we can hold for a proper run upside or if we fall back into the range.

I couldn't tell you which and there is an argument for us being in an upwards channel now but I still have us as "undecided". Now we could put some of yesterdays action down to end of month and there was a massive offer yesterday of over 5000 contracts that got completely taken out and pretty much ignored thereafter. So fingers crossed, that we may be a little more free to make a proper move today.



Today - I'll be watching how we do on any move up to yesterdays value low or daily low. If they get rejected then it's a downside bias. For upside, well in theory anything above 1929 is bullish but we are in an indecisive area, so I wont try to gain too much meaning from the bigger picture today and it'll be a case of joining in on the side of volume.

Weekly Numbers
Range 1886.75 ->1968.75
Value - 1905.75 -> 1942.25
S1 - 1896.75 R1 - 1978.75

Daily Numbers
Range 1926.50 -> 1956.25
Value 1939.25 - > 1956.25
Globex 1920.75 -> 1933.59

Settlement - 1929.50

Long Term 2109.25, 2006, 1929.25, 1843, 1814, 1773.75

3rd March



We've left the chop zone, so into today with a long bias until I see evidence to the contrary. Volume is decent in this move up but not great.

To the upside we do have a level at 2006 but if you look at the spikes down the last time that area was of interest, we did spike way through it so anywhere from 83-2006 is in a pivot zone (an area we've held from both sides).



We are building an upper distribution, with not much trading below 1971.25 all the way down to 1945 area. So if we do move down, I'll be watching the 1971 area.



We've made a small move up overnight but not much. If we stay in this area into the open, I'll be looking to play off yesterdays value area first of all. The value high has held so far, so we may have tested it already and be on our way up. Into the open, I'll be looking to jump on any move up but take a wait & see with any move down to see if we test one of those nearby levels.

Weekly Numbers
Range 1920.74 ->1987.75
Value - 1921.50 -> 1973.50
S1 - 1896.75 R1 - 1978.75

Daily Numbers
Range 1966.525 -> 1984.75
Value 1970.50- > 1978.50
Globex 1978.50 -> 1987.75

Settlement - 1983.50
Today only - 1971.25

Long Term 2109.25, 2006, 1929.25, 1843, 1814, 1773.75

4th March




Bias is long today, looking for more progression to 2000-2006. There's a lot of news at 8:30am, so in absence of that, path of least resistance would be up. So eyes on the numbers and see which way the wind blows after that.

We did get price progression upwards yesterday but only 7 points and volume was down to 1.5m. So I'm still biased long but a bit wary of the reducing volume.



Just like yesterday, the prior days value high has held overnight. Which is good for the upside. We don't have many reference points around other than above us.

So into today - long bias, looking out for any up move off the open and if not, expecting a hold if we move down. Of course, the 8:30am news could pull us out of this out move. Expecting average volume and will be very wary of any move down with high volume.


Weekly Numbers
Range 1920.75 ->1993
Value - 1941.75 -> 1992.75
S1 - 1896.75 R1 - 1978.75

Daily Numbers
Range 1974.75 -> 1991.75
Value 1975.75- > 1985.75
Globex 1987 -> 1993

Settlement - 1983.50
Today only - 1971.25

Long Term 2109.25, 2006, 1929.25, 1843, 1814, 1773.75

7th March



We managed to get to our 2006 level - just through it to 2007.50 and then we fell back to 1990. So today looking to see if we are headed back to the old range or if we get through 2006 again, hold it and start heading to 2100. I have no bias either way going into today.



Last weeks profile has an upper distribution which has a low of 1971. So an eye on that as we move down, 1985 is also of interest from the profile.



To the downside we also have Thursdays low at 1974.75. Below those levels , it appears we can get to 1945 fairly quickly.

So into today - looking for support to the downside somewhere from 71-74. If we pop up, wary at 2006. If we do move down, volume will be key in telling us whether lots of speculators are making bets to the downside, considering the up move done.

If we see average volume today - then I'll consider the direction unresolved and upside still on the table even if we do move to the downside. It was a big move up and a long time coming. So a bit of profit taking is expected.

Weekly Numbers
Range 1920.75 ->2007.50
Value - 1943.75 -> 2007.25
S1 - 1945 R1 - 2026

Daily Numbers
Range 1984 -> 2007.50
Value 1992 -> 2003.50
Globex 1985.25 -> 1996.25

Settlement - 1995
Today only - 1974.75, 1971, 1985

Long Term 2109.25, 2006, 1929.25, 1843, 1814, 1773.75

8th March



Following on from yesterdays prep - I still think the 2006 level need to be resolved and looking at the overnight action, it does look a little more bearish. Saying that, it's just the overnight session that pushed down. We did move up yesterday and failed to reach 2006 and speculators will likely look at any more move down into the day session today as a sign we can't hold these prices and that the path of least resistance is to the downside.



I'm still looking at 1974.25-1971 as the area we need to stay above for a chance of continuation up. Below 71, I can see us getting to 45 without too much trouble.



We did end yesterday fairly neutral and it's just in the overnight session that we've made what looks like a decisive rejection of that 2006 area. Still, I'd like to see what the US traders think of it, so I'm not ready to call this the end of the move up until the US session opens.

Looking at this, it does look like we could be developing a small range, so that's one to keep in mind of we do move back up on lowish volume.

Into the open.
1 - Looking for a snap back up, rejection of this overnight push down
2 - Looking for volume if we do move down more. If we get towards, 1971-1974 on low volume, I'll be looking for rejection back up
3 - If we move down to 1971-1974 on higher vol, I'll be looking for a break and a move to 45.

Weekly Numbers
Range 1920.75 ->2007.50
Value - 1943.75 -> 2007.25
S1 - 1945 R1 - 2026

Daily Numbers
Range 1984.50 / 1986 -> 2004.50
Value 1991.50 -> 2001.50
Globex 1980.75 -> 2000.50

Settlement - 1999

Today only - 1971->1974.75

Long Term 2109.25, 2006, 1929.25, 1843, 1814, 1773.75

9th March



We are still moving down but I still don't feel like we've had a decisive move down yet, so I'm still looking for volume to jump in and tell is if we are headed to 2100 or back to 1926.



I still have an eye on the 1971-1974 area for a hold and if broken, looking for a fairly swift drop to 45.



We seem to be in "pop and drop" mode, not that this means we'll do the same again today but if we do move up and roll over, I'd be wary if I was in a late long.

It's still early but so far we haven't had a push down overnight. There's not much news today, so unless we break 71. I'd expect any move to be a bit lazy. Obviously volume can come in at any time but on balance, it's hard to see a large volume of speculators jumping on an up move until we get through 2006 or yesterdays high.

So looking for acceleration below 71, looking for upside moves to be somewhat lazy as I can't see what would entice speculators into the market until we break an upside level.

Note too that the VIX is down at 17.35, so expected volatility is dropping.

Weekly Numbers
Range 1976 ->2004.50
Value - 1982.50 -> 1994
S1 - 1945 R1 - 2026

Daily Numbers
Range 1976 -> 1993 / 2000.50
Value 1979.50 -> 1988.50
Globex 1978.75 -> 1989.25

Settlement - 1981

Today only - 1971->1974.75

Long Term 2109.25, 2006, 1929.25, 1843, 1814, 1773.75