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Happy Thai New Year! I'm back after the break - that's the 3rd and final New Year celebration this year. Calendar, Chinese then Thai.
Doesn't appear that the sky is falling in after all. Still, we are about halfway back so we have to keep an eye out for a failure at this point.
The 59.50 area proved to be pretty weak, so it got relegated to a different color. The 67.50 level is the next one above I see being a potential for a turnaround and below us we have the 39.50 level that needs to hold for more upside. There's a lot going on around that level.
As we can see on the weekly profile, the 40.25 level has become a bit of a base, so I think this gives more weight to that 39.50 area above.
On the split globex/pit profile, we can see yesterdays globex low is 39.75, then the pit low is 40.75. So that whole area 39.50-40.75 is key for more upside. It would be a great to see this tested today. My gut feel is that if this breaks we'll have a good short opportunity and if it hold a good long opportunity. Somewhat stating the obvious that but I feel we'll have a good continuation either way.
We do also have yesterdays VAL to get through and if the bullishness continues, we might not get down past that. We do have unemployment numbers at 8:30 so we may get the test before the pit session opens.
So I'm primarily looking at 39.50->40.75 but also an eye on the VAL as well as the VAH at 1853 but I don't see that as a major reaction point (even though it's held in Globex so far). I feel buyers will be easier to attract than sellers at this point.
Weekly Numbers Range - 1803.25 -> 1857
Value 1804 -> 1844.50
Just below the 67.50 as at writing (4:35am EST). If we get through 67.50, then I expect us to go and test the highs, if not, then I'll consider that we may be moving dowb but I won't get really bearish till we pass down through 39.50. Below that I'll presume we are looking at another run to 1800.
The move up was pretty aggressive at the start of last week but did fade out towards the end of the week. Whether this was just pre-holiday malaise or the move up is fading should be clear today.
Last weeks profile shows us building volume at higher prices. Todays Globex session is not telling us much because much of Europe is closed today. To the downside, we can see the 1840 level us below the upper distribution and that gives weight to wanting to stay above 39.50 for longs.
On Thursday, we took a poke down to 1850 in the pit session before moving up to 1864 and retracing a little. The 1850.25 level is worth watching today as is the 1856.75 we pulled back to.
Weekly Numbers Range - 1803.25 -> 1863.75
Value 1804 -> 1848
S1 1823.25, R1 1878.25
Yesterday was fairly narrow, so today we are pretty much in the same spot - will we bounce off the 67.50 area and head to the lows again or get through it and then move up to 1900? As per yesterday:
Just below the 67.50 as at writing (4:35am EST). If we get through 67.50, then I expect us to go and test the highs, if not, then I'll consider that we may be moving dowb but I won't get really bearish till we pass down through 39.50. Below that I'll presume we are looking at another run to 1900.
The move up was pretty aggressive at the start of last week but did fade out towards the end of the week. Whether this was just pre-holiday malaise or the move up is fading should be clear today.
Ok - so maybe it'll be clear today - yesterday was lackluster with a lot of Europe being closed. Todays Eurex session was quiet though, so it could well follow on and be another slow one today.
Looking at the weekly profiles, we are above the upper distribution last week, so that is more bullish we can see that below 55 we end up in that upper distribution with the potential for it to churn about there. Below we have the "step" at 1840.25 - just above the 39.50 mentioned above - another good reason to expect a run if 39.50 breaks.
Yesterday we opined "On Thursday, we took a poke down to 1850 in the pit session before moving up to 1864 and retracing a little. The 1850.25 level is worth watching today as is the 1856.75 we pulled back to."
And we got down to 56.50 - so will be watching that area again today. So really looking for the same things today that we were looking for yesterday 67.50 being a line in the sand above us, 39.50 being a line in the sane below with 56.50 and 50.00 as minor support levels for long trades.
Note also that the Globex low is currently yesterdays VAL - so that could well be our support today.,
Weekly Numbers Range - 1803.25 -> 1863.75
Value 1804 -> 1848
S1 1823.25, R1 1878.25
Daily Numbers
Range - 1856.50 -> 1865.50
Value - 1860.75 -> 1865.25
Globex - 1860.75-> 1866.25
Well - we got above 67.50, so now my presumption is we'll retest the all time highs. This doesn't mean we'll do it in one leg, so now I'm looking for lines in the sand below that would make good long entries OR invalidate my premise.
From a weekly perspective, we have the upper distribution from last week at 53.75. What we can also see is that this week we also have 2 distributions. The lower one is 1858.25-> 1866.50. So we can see that as we broke 67.50 to the upside, we had a run up without much trading to the upper distribution at 1871.25-> 1878.
So what we want to see today is for that upper distribution to hold or at least for us to stay above this weeks lower distribution - which coincides closely enough to our 67.50 line.
It is worth noting that volatility was pitiful in the Eurex session. and Globex range currently stands at just 4.75 points. VIX is down to 13, so it might be a slow one today.
On the split Globex/Pit profiles, we can see the lower arrow pointing to our 67.50 line, then
we have a single print @ 71.50 and the afternoon pullback at 72.50 - any of those could see sellers jump in.
For me, anything above 67.50 is bullish overall and I'm primarily looking for buyers to jump in. Still - if we poke 2 ticks through yesterdays high and sellers come in, I'll still take a short despite being overall biased long.
Weekly Numbers
Range - 1856.50 -> 1878.75
Value 1857.25 -> 1872.75
S1 1823.25, R1 1878.25
Daily Numbers
Range - 1860.75 (globex) / 1865.75 (pit) -> 1878.75
Value - 1872.75 -> 1878.25
Globex - 1871.25-> 1875.75
We got a pull back yesterday right to our 67.50 line.
Buyers did step in, although admittedly it was pretty slow on the way up. Still we were expecting that yesterday considering the VIX was at lows.
We do have a level at 80.50 but I'm still long biased expecting a run to the highs. Obviously I could be wrong but I think probability favors a run to the highs and the buyers coming in at 67.50 adds weight to that.
A double distribution on a weekly basis so far (or you could argue triple but the volume is not there on the upper area). We have a single at 67.25 which coincides with our 67.50 level. This developing distribution above has a low at 1876, so there's a chance that may be our stepping stone for an up move.
I'm thinking we haven't moved up enough or traded enough to consider us out the top of that upper area, so I think we could see a retrace down to low 70's without that meaning we should shift to short bias.
We can see in the split globex/pit proflines that yesterday was a narrow range but int he Globex, we have basically stayed above yesterdays VAH at 1872. In terms of a pullback in the pit session, 1872 looks more reasonable at this point than 1876.
So looking for longs above 1867.50 overall. Todays plan - look for one of our levels below as a reference from which buyers step in.
The higher we go the more we are moving into areas where we had light trading. As such, I expect it to move more freely/quickly as we move up.
Weekly Numbers
Range - 1856.50 -> 1880.75
Value 1857.25 -> 1873.25
S1 1823.25, R1 1878.25
Daily Numbers
Range - 1867.50 -> 1873.75 (pit) / 1875.75 (globex)
Value - 1869.00 -> 1872
Globex - 1872.25-> 1880.75
Yesterday, the market got spooked over rumors of Putin calling an emergency press conference. That saw aggressive selling shortly after the open but we normalized in the PM.
So I'm going to pretty much ignore yesterday and go back to what I was looking for yesterday AM before the market opened. That is the market staying above 67.50 - testing a downside reference and making a run for the highs.
I see yesterday as an aberration and not the end of the move up. If we get more news today, then it could well start something bigger but if not, I'll look for us to keep on doing what we were doing before Putin rumors gave us that move.
We can see 2 major distributions on the weekly profile with 67.50 in the middle of them it might be a bit of a churn up to 76. If we break 67.50 again, then I will have to consider shorts.
We did actually make a new high of this leg yesterday - 1882.50 - but that was in Globex before the collapse
On the split profile, we can see we dipped below Wednesdays low but on recovery we held at 68.75 before the last run up yesterday. So far in the Globex, that same 68.75 has held. So I'm looking for 68.75 or 68.50 to hold now for more upside. If not, then I think we risk having sellers step in again.
Weekly Numbers Range - 1856.50 -> 1882.50
Value 1865.25 -> 1881.25
S1 1823.25, R1 1878.25
