On Friday - the day after US holiday we see a massive divergence on US versus EU indices:
While the Dax rushed up on Thursday (US was closed) we had the very strange behaviour
on Friday: ES made the up and Dax already heavily down... (so what will come on Monday? )
You can see the missing Thursday candle here - as I am using the german chart settings.
ES went again into centered in the Kumo. From Monday I am expecting the same downmove
in the ES as the Dax made on Friday.
To compare with the Dax - have a look here:

GFIs1 HiLo DAX Signal New Year - new GFIs1 approach *** IMPORTANT NOTE to ALL readers first: This thread has NO indication about entry or exit nor does it provide ANY signals! (live or not) but is for testing reasons and discussing results *** Goal: Finding an indicator …

in post 162.
The original scenario discussed earlier is still valid. So price might follow the black line to
lower levels (1460 area) with some hefty moves in the next weeks - so be prepared.
Our longterm short since @ 1653 is still green..



GFIs1

Hello GFIs1,

The ES is now above the kumo, the 0.62 retracement and short term resistance trend line (1632). It make me change my scenario last night. I think the drop for 1500 is for later and the immediate step will be 1700/20.

What do you think about the situation?

AnasParis 

Hello GFIs1, The ES is now above the kumo, the 0.62 retracement and short term resistance trend line (1632). It make me change my scenario last night. I think the drop for 1500 is for later and the immediate step will be 1700/20. What do you think about the situation?

Bonjour Anas!

Thanks for your scenario - appreciated!
In my view I would like to show the daily ES here first:



In my daily chart the price went out "north" on the daily Kumo intraday - but price is sinking back again.
So I have no doubt - even for the ES - that this was the maximum up-extent possible where Kumo is
thickest right now. Looking at two main indicators here:
1) red TenkanSen sits underneath Kumo (bearish)
2) blue KijunSen has arrived near bottom of Kumo.
Both lines have NOT crossed within Kumo here - so the original trend (down) has to be seen as valid.
Then I have the spiral which crosses next @ about 2nd week of august between Kumo twist (red vertical
dotted line)
3) company half year numbers are coming from today and are expected lower than high expectations
given with the pricing right now
4) lower volumes during July and August are leading to higher vola
Given all this I am still convinced to see my (yes you can no longer see it ) scenario to see prices
fall into 1460/80 1500 area first.
Tomorrow - I am very looking forward - I hope to see some proof of the above points made!

Good trades
GFIs1

Thanks !!

Last question:

what is the level (daily close) who make you change your mind ?

AnasParis 

Thanks !! Last question: what is the level (daily close) who make you change your mind ?

ok - let's see two different Ichimoku matters here:

a) the ES is NOT so easily charted and interpreted with cloud and behaviour of distance from
Hi to middle of cloud as from middle cloud to the Lo
b) Dax is very easily calculated - behaviour is in over 80% occurencies "normal"

Having now a look at both instruments with current prices:
a) ES is on top within a thinner daily Kumo - candle did NOT close yet above Kumo
b) Dax is still in the lower 3rd of a thicker Kumo and should with high probablity get underneath
the Kumo again - as TenkanSen, KijunSen are still showing bearish.
c) to round it up - for the Dax the green ChikouSpan has passed the pair Tenkan/Kijun and
rests lower than the pair - this is a second help to "see" lower prices being higher probable.
(For the ES this is at the moment not true - but at least "neutral")

Hope this helps
GFIs1

AnasParis 

what is the level (daily close) who make you change your mind ?

to answer your question properly for the Dax here:

If the red TenkanSen is pushing up into Kumo and crossing the still resisting
KijunSen IN the KUMO - that would be a strong long signal - and I would
change my scenario.
There is no "price" given - as the two lines react a bit lagging - but we would
know definitely before weekend.

GFIs1

This is my new chart based on Elliott and other elements.




Thank you for your explanations. It helps me to understand your point of view based on your method.

@AnasParis:

To not interfere in this ES thread I have posted a weekly view of the Dax in the other thread to underline some more:

GFIs1 1 DAX trade per day journal After some discussion in the HiLo ES thread about development of ES and Dax in the coming weeks I try to post here a actual view of the weekly Dax: We can see that a) Price is far above Kumo which works as a good support right now b) This weekly …

see post 899.

GFIs1

GFIs1 

@AnasParis: To not interfere in this ES thread I have posted a weekly view of the Dax in the other thread to underline some more: GFIs1 1 DAX trade per day journal After some discussion in the HiLo ES thread about development of ES and Dax in the coming weeks I try to post here a actual view of the weekly Dax: We can see that a) Price is far above Kumo which works as a good support right now b) This weekly … see post 899. GFIs1

Muchas gracias amigo GFIs1!

(Post 889)

My new chart (Elliott).