Pullback and Failed Reversal

1st Trade: Pullback

Pre-entry
Price was in a downtrend and was showing signs of a pullback. Price was in a tight trading range with a few bars having lower tails where bulls pushed up a bit. There looked to be a first leg of a pullback within the TTR and the breakout of the TTR signified the second leg of the pullback. Price reached the ema and the following bar was a bear bar. I decided to take a short based on 3 reasons:
1) 2 bar reversal near the ema
2) This could be the end of a 2 legged pullback
3) There was no trendline break yet

The risk was outside of the 15 tick limit. It was 17 ticks. I broke the rule on risk.
Risk: 17 ticks Target: 15 ticks

Emotionally, I was calm and the setup looked sound. There was a bit of an urge to enter due to missing a prior failed reversal on the second leg down with 2 reversal bars which I did not enter due to the risk exceeding 15 ticks.

Entry
I entered on an OCO sell stop order. The stop was placed at the prior bar high and the target was placed at the TTR low/prior pivot low.

Trade
Price went down decisively first but it did not reach the TTR low and started to turn back up. Price inched up towards the stop. I was half looking at the web browser and half watching the trade. My heart started to sink as the initial profit turned into a loss. I was a bit tempted to remove or shift the stop higher but stayed put. I had already made a mistake and did not want to make another one.

Exit and Post trade PA
Price hit the stop.
Result: -17 ticks

Price hit the stop and fell back down in the intended direction. Near the close of the bar, it looked like forming a bear reversal bar at the TTR top and i decided to take a short but price slipped away from the intended entry price before i could send the new order.

On review, i did not follow my 15 risk limit rule and paid the price for it. The trade setup did look sound though. Also, my record in pullback trades continues to be poor. I have yet to have a winning trade based on a pullback setup. I need to only trade the best setups and follow all the rules when it comes to pullbacks.

2nd Trade: Failed Reversal

Pre entry
Price was coming down from the ema in a downtrend and I decided to take a short based on 2 reasons:
1) There was a prior 2 legged pullback to the ema. Price was coming down without showing much bull strength after the 2 legged pullback.
2) There was a prior small double bottom where early bulls pushed price up towards the ema. Their protective stops
will likely be placed at the double bottom low.
3) The LOY support level is within sight. Price could make a push down towards the LOY level

The risk was within limit.
Risk: 15 ticks Target: 15 ticks

Entry
I placed an OCO stop sell order at 1 tick below the double bottom low.
The stop was placed 15 ticks away. The target was placed 5 ticks above the LOY level.

Trade
Price hesistated for a while after the entry before falling decisively.
I was calm as the trade played out.

Exit and Post trade PA

Price hit the target.
Results: 15 ticks

Price continued downwards and broke the LOY level before forming a TTR.

On review, it was a good trade and observation and I followed the plan without breaking any rules.

Range fade setup

Pre entry

Price is in a bull channel. Prior to the entry, price made a 2 legged upmove from the lower channel line and was nearing the channel top. It formed a small bull flag near the channel top and there was a failed flag breakout near the channel top. A bear reversal bar near the channel top formed and I decided to take a short based on 3 reasons:
1) Price was near the channel top and formed a bear reversal bar
2) The flag breakout failed
3) Price was some distance away from the ema

The risk was within limits. Risk: 12 ticks
Target: 12 ticks

Emotionally, I was calm as the price action was not so violatile and the setup was a familiar one. There was a bit of uncertainty as it was a short in a bull channel although it was not a dominant feeling.

Entry

I entered on an OCO stop sell order.
The stop loss was placed at the prior bar high.
The target was placed somewhere at the channel mid.
As this was a range fade short in a bull channel, i was a bit cautious in case price formed a higher pivot low.

Trade

During the trade, i did not watch the price tick by tick to avoid being overwhelmed by emotions. I switched between looking at the web browser and the chart.
Overall, I was calm although as price was pausing somewhere between the entry and the target, i started to feel a bit anxious and had an urge to meddle with the target level.

Exit and Post trade PA

Price hit the target.
Result: 12 ticks

Price ended its first leg down-move, had a counter upswing and a second leg down which touched the channel low. It then started to move up to the channel high.

On review, the trade setup was sound and I followed my rules. However, i noticed that anxiety and the urge to meddle with the trade has been creeping back up. I need to be on guard against impulsive interference and if needed, get away from the computer for a while or do something soothing like listening to music or watching some videos.
I also need to be more bold in setting targets. I have raised the targets numerically a bit in recent trades although there is still more room to set bigger ones.

Range fade

Pre entry
Price was in a downward channel and it broke through the upper channel. It formed a TTR for a while before falling back. A bear inside bar with an upper tail formed and i decided to take a short based on 3 reasons:
1) Price is at the channel top
2) The bearish inside bar closed at the low. There could be more follow through
3) There was a mini double top when price broke through the top channel line

The trendline break could be the start of a trend reversal or a channel fade. Either way, there could be a test of the low.

The risk was within limit. Risk: 14 ticks Target: 14 ticks

Emotionally, I was calm. THe price action was familiar and its movement was not too violatile. I also reminded myself to follow the rules.

Entry

I entered on an OCO sell stop order.
The stop was placed at the prior bar high and the target was placed at the channel mid.

Trade

The trade initially went down as anticipated but it faced resistance from the buyers. It had difficulty pushing down and then bulls pushed price up. After 3 bars, there was little follow through in either direction and i decided to manually exit the trade, according to my time based rule.
Before manually exiting, i did not interfere with the trade.

Exit and post trade PA

Manually exited with a small loss
Result: -3 ticks

After exiting, price formed a trading range at the ema. The downtrend has reversed into a trading range. The target was not hit.

On review, the trade was ok. I followed the rules and the decision to exit manually was the correct one. The setup was not the best looking one although it was a familiar one. Emotionally wise, i was calm and able to keep my emotions in check, mainly because i did not watch the trade tick by tick. There was not much of an urge to meddle with the trade.

Trend Reversal setup

Pre entry
Earlier on, price was in a bull channel. It had a channel overshoot and a reversal which broke the bull channel line. After breaking the bull trendline, a TTR occured and was followed by a 3 legged test of the extreme. The test was a small overshoot. A bear inside bar followed and i decided to take a short based on 3 reasons:
1) Reversal following an overshoot test of the extreme after a bull trendline break
2) Possible double top
3) Bear inside bar

The risk was 18 ticks and the target was 15 ticks.

Emotionally, I was calm and clear headed about the price action and setup. I was watching the chart
bar by bar and taking notes about the price action.

Entry

I entered on an OCO buy stop order.

The stop is placed at the signal bar high and the target is placed at a minor prior pivot low.

Trade

During the trade, price moved hestitatingly downwards. Each time, it moved down a bit, paused or went up and inched down a bit more. I could feel the tension rising especially as price inched down slowly towards the target.
However, I distracted myself by watching some videos and it helped to reduce the stress. Additionally, i reminded myself to make exit according to plan and not manually interfere with the trade.

Exit and post trade PA

Price hit the target.
Result: 14 ticks

Price hit the target and went down more towards the ema. There was a minor pullback before price moved a bit more downwards for a second leg.

On review, it was a sound trade. I also find that taking notes about the ongoing price action helps me to follow price better, have a clearer mind and be more emotionally stable. The targets I set have a larger buffer now but price still exceeds the target by more than a few ticks.

I gathered some stats for the trades made in June 2013:



Setup observations:
The winning setups are Range Fades, Trend Reversals and Failed Reversal.
The breakeven trade is a Range Fade setup
The losing trade is a Pullback setup.

Discipline observations:
I mostly followed my rules except for the one where the risk exceeds a certain amount. The range of the bars on the 5min chart have been wider in June compared to May.

I also largely followed the goals set in the previous review, which are to set larger targets, avoid trading TTRs and Breakouts and to leave the chart after entering a trade.

On review for June, it was generally a positive month in terms of trade results and discipline. I started on 2 new practises this month:
- Read my plan aloud to myself before looking at the chart
- Take notes on the price action of each bar during the trading session

I found them helpful in following the market better, having a clearer mind and having more patience with less urgency to enter trades for the sake of action.

Regarding targets, i have set larger targets this month but the risk still mostly outweighs the targets set. Also, price mostly goes furthur in the anticipated direction after hitting the target. I need to treat setting targets as seriously as setting stops. To do so, for future journel entries, i'll also highlight my stop and target levels on the chart. Hopefully, it'll force me to give target setting more thought.

For setups, range fades and trend reversals are the winners and pullbacks are still my weakness. For pullbacks, i need to take only the best looking PB setups. There is also a new setup which i started to look at, which is failed reversals. It is a new setup for me and i also take only the high probability failed reversal setups.

The 3 action plans for July and more are:
-> Continue to read the plan aloud and take notes on the ongoing price action
-> Highlight stop and target levels on the chart for each trade and add them to the journal entries
-> Take only the best pullback setups (clear M2B, M2S and flag setups)

Range Fade

Pre entry
Earlier on, price had a steep upmove and then evolved into a tight trading range which slowly grinds upwards. A bull channel can be drawn. Price had formed a higher pivot low in the middle of the channel. It went up to the channel top and came back down to the middle of the channel at the same level as the prior higher pivot low. A bull reversal bar formed and i decided to take a long based on 2 reasons:
1) The reversal bar had occured near the lower channel line
2) Price could have a mini double bottom at the prior higher pivot low level.

The risk was within limits.
Risk: 10 ticks Target: 10 ticks

Emotionally, i was calm and made sure that the rules were met before deciding to enter.

Entry
I entered using an OCO stop buy order.

The target was placed at the prior high, near the channel top. (blue line)
The stop was placed at the signal bar low. (pink line)

Trade
During the trade, i was calm and did not look at price tick by tick. Price moved up and came to 1 tick off the target and stalled. My anxiety started to build up.

Then price started to fall. It stalled for a while and during the next bar, it fell decisively and hit the stop. My mood was down especially when price was just 1 tick off the target. However, i did follow the rules and did not manually interfere with the trade.

Exit and Post trade PA
Price hit the stop.
Result: -10 ticks

Price broke the lower channel line a little, formed a TTR cum small double bottom at the ema and rose up to hit the original target.

To review, I had mixed feelings on this trade. Obviously, taking a loss is not that pleasant especially when price was just 1 tick off the target and price hit the target eventually after being stopped out.
On the other hand, i followed my rules for the trade and if it had hit the target, i would consider this to be a good trade.
My goal is to stay focused and stick to following my plan.

Trend Reversal, Failed Reversal

Pre-entry
Earlier on, price had a steep upswing and evolved into a TTR which broke the bull trendline. There seemed to be a lower pivot high within the TTR. Then, there was a bear breakout but buyers pushed up a bit. A bull reversal bar then formed with bulls pushing up from the same level. A bull bar with a close at the high followed. This looked like a 3BR setup but there was no follow through on the next bar and a sideways overlapping bear bar formed instead. This could be a lower pivot high after the bull trendline break and a lower high test of the extreme.
I decided to take a short below the bull reversal level (horizontal blue line) based on 3 reasons:
1) Price had broken the bull trendline and was followed by a TTR cum lower pivot high test of the extreme
2) The TTR cum lower pivot high could be seen as a double top
3) There was no follow through following the 3BR and a lower pivot high looked to form instead.

The risk was within limits.
Risk: 12 ticks Target: 11 ticks

Emotionally, I was somewhat in 2 minds over interpreting the price action. On 1 hand, it could be a trend reversal and a lower pivot high. On the other, the TTR could be a pullback which had a failed bear breakout before continuing the up move. Hence, I had feelings of doubt when making the entry. Also, I had the feeling of the need to make an entry.

Entry
I entered on an OCO stop sell order.
The stop was placed at the prior bar high (red horizontal line) and the target was at one of the previous pivot high (green horizontal line)

Trade
I did not manage the trade well. Although i left the chart and did not look at the price tick by tick, my insecurity and uncertainty took over and i intefered with the trade. After seeing price move down but stall, I manually shifted the target up by a few ticks. My overwhelming emotion and thought was to exit with a profit at around 10 ticks. I think a large part of this is due to the previous trade where the price came within 1 tick of the target and fell back to hit the stop.

Exit
Price hit the adjusted target.
Result: 9 ticks

Price went down past the adjusted and original targets and formed a TTR. It then had a break out and went down further.

On review, I broke one of my rules and manually intefered with the trade by shifting the target level. I think the outcome of the previous trade was still in my mind and affected my thoughts and confidence. In fact, before the market open, I was having some doubt if i could ever become consistently profitable.
I think when my emotions and thoughts are not at their optimum, it is better to totally leave the computer after making a trade in order to not let emotions take over.

Range Fade and Failed Reversal

Pre entry
Earlier on, price had a steep fall of 5x bear bars after an upmove. It looks like a trading range (big up-big down). Price then broke down from the HOY support level but the breakout failed after a few bars as price went back up above the HOY level. The area where the breakout failed is also close to several prior pivot lows.
Price then formed a bear reversal bar near the ema. The next bar started off with a bear push down to the HOY level before buyers pushed price up decisively. I decided to take a long based on 3 reasons:
1) Price is in a trading range and had a prior failed downside breakout. It could now move back up.
2) The bear reversal bar could be the end of the first leg. A second leg up could happen
3) Bears who sold early could be trapped and their stops may push price up even more

The risk was within limits.
Risk: 10 ticks Target: 14 ticks

Emotionally, I was calm and quite certain that there could be a failed bear reversal after watching the prior price action.
I made the decision to enter in a calm state of mind.

Entry
I entered on an OCO stop buy order. (1 tick above the blue horizontal line)
The stop was placed at the bear reversal bar low. (red horizontal line)
The target was placed at one of the prior pivot highs. (green horizontal line)

Trade
Again, i intefered with the trade. This time, I shifted the stop up to breakeven on a whim. I broke my rules. First, i watched the chart tick by tick and my emotions grew stronger every time price stalled or went down. Second, i decided to shift the stop to BE to avoid taking a possible loss. I shifted the stop after seeing price move up and then start to fall back. I dared not take a loss and shifted the stop to BE. It was done in the heat of the moment and not part of the plan.

Exit and Post trade PA
Price hit the adjusted BE stop.
Result: 0 ticks

Price fell back to form a bear bar and the next bar went back up decisively. The third bar hit the original target. Price then had a pullback to the ema before rising up more.

On review, this was the second trade in the row where i intefered with the trade and exited prematurely. I have to be not afraid of losses and not fiddle with the exit levels. On reflection, for the last 2 trades, i did not review my trading rules before trading as i was lazy and felt confident that the rules are already ingrained into my mind. Also, instead of following the plan to distract myself or leave the chart, I started to watch the price tick by tick during the trade and let myself get stressed and worried.

Hence, for the future trades, I have to carry on doing what i did right previously. For future trades, i aim to :
-> Read the trading rules aloud before trading
-> Maximise the web browser or leave the computer after entering the trade

Pullback setup

Pre entry
Earlier, price had a bull channel overshoot, double top and a reversal which broke the bull channel lines. Price went downwards with lower pivot high and low until the HOY level. Price bounced up to the ema and had a failed breakout past the prior high. A bear bar then a sideways doji followed, with buyers pushing up from the same level. I decided to take a short based on 3 reasons:
1) Failed breakout from prior high
2) 3 bar reversal variant
3) The doji following the 3BR could be the end of the first leg. There may be a second down leg to go

The risk was within limits.
Risk: 10 ticks Target: 10 ticks

Emotionally, I was calm and followed the price action clearly.

Entry
I entered using an OCO stop buy order. (blue line)
The stop was placed at the signal bar high (orange line).
The target was placed at the HOY level which also coincided with prior pivot lows (green line)

I entered late and bought at 1 tick higher.

Trade
I did not watch price tick by tick and switched to the web browser. I only looked at the chart occassionally and this helps to maintain calmness and level headedness. There was no urge to meddle with the exit levels.

Exit and post trade PA
Price hit the target
Result: 9 ticks

Price formed a trading range.

On review, there was an improvement in discipline and letting the trade do its thing. I resumed reading the plan aloud before trading and to leave the chart while in an entry and not watch price tick by tick. I should continue to do this.

Range Fade

Pre entry
Price was in a bear channel with gentle lower highs and lows. Price was approaching the lower channel line and it bounced up to the ema before falling back to around the same level. I saw the price action as having 2 legs down. Price then formed a doji inside bar followed by a bull bar. I decided to take a long based on 2 reasons:
1) Price was near the lower channel line and 2 legs down had ended
2) The setup was a 3BR variant and bulls seem to be pushing up from the same level near the lower channel line

The risk was within limits.
Risk: 12 ticks Target: 14 ticks

Emotionally, I was calm when deciding to enter the trade.

Entry
I entered on an OCO stop buy order.

The stop was placed at the signal bar low (pink line)
The target was placed at a prior pivot high (green line)

Trade
The trade quickly proved to be incorrect and i was quickly stopped out within the entry bar.
I felt down and a little surprised to see price move down so quickly

Exit and post trade PA
Price hit the stop
Result:-12 ticks

Price broke down past the bear channel and reversed up to form a trading range.

On review, this was not a good setup. Although it could be 2 legs down, the bars had lots of overlap and was essentially sideways. It is more like a TTR. Somehow, i did not see that price could be in a TTR. Perhaps when there was a channel line, i developed tunnel vision and did not analyse price objectively. I could be too eager to look for setups near the channel lines. I need to be alert of overlapping, sideways bars and avoid trading them.

Secondly, winning trades are a mix of single and double digit ticks while losing trades are mostly 10 or more ticks. I have to set bigger targets more regularly, subject to price action, so that 1 losing trade does not set me back by 1-2 trades.