jamrock 

yeah people who manipulate prices always document it. you are tradign manipulations in every market that is all it really is which doesnt change anything it just makes you understand that nothing is real in fundamentals thats all.

Okay if you don't have a source, explain your logic. The vast majority of the producers who produce NG do not have trading groups so how or why are the manipulating the price so obvously.

jamrock 

um amaranth vs centaraus yeah that was real right ha ha ha

It was a transfer of $2B-$3B. All from Amaranth but not just to Centaurus but to JPM and Sempra as well (and every other small fish in the ocean who got to eat on the corpse). Your implication is what? It didn't happen? It was a fix? A manipulation? I don't understand?

NG Margin increase effective September 22, 2020

Maintenance margin's increasing as follows (Note: Non-member initial margin rates will be 110% of these)

Tier 1 / Oct20 from $2550 to $2800 +$250
Tier 2 / Nov20 from $2450 to $2700 +$250
Tier 3 / Dec20 from $2275 to $2525 +$250
Tier 4 / Jan21 from $2175 to $2425 +$250
Tier 5 / Feb21 from $1900 to $2150 +$250
Tier 6 / Mar21 from $1900 to $2150 +$250
Tier 7 / Apr21 unchanged at $1050

NGv 1.80 put went from $30 to $840 to $100 in 10 days. It expires in 2 days.

NG Margin increase effective September 24, 2020

Maintenance margin's increasing as follows (Note: Non-member initial margin rates will be 110% of these)

Second increase this week.

Tier 1 / Oct20 from $2800 to $3000 +$200
Rest Unchanged

https://www.cmegroup.com/notices/clearing/2020/09/Chadv20-370.html

October Natural Gas Prices

TETCO-M2 (ie Atlanta) $0.75
Dominion (ie Appalachian) $1.07
Waha & Permian (ie West TX) $1.20
TETCO-M3/Transco-Z6 (ie NJ/NY) $1.20
Henry Hub $2.13
Socal Border $2.40
Socal Citygate (ie LA) $3.35
PG&E (ie SanFran) $3.93

Quite the range!

SMCJB 

October Natural Gas Prices TETCO-M2 (ie Atlanta) $0.75 Dominion (ie Appalachian) $1.07 Waha & Permian (ie West TX) $1.20 TETCO-M3/Transco-Z6 (ie NJ/NY) $1.20 Henry Hub $2.13 Socal Border $2.40 Socal Citygate (ie LA) $3.35 PG&E (ie SanFran) $3.93 Quite the range!

Any way to arb that? Cuz if I can make money and pick off California at the same time, I'm in!

Third increase in approx 10 days!

NG Margin increase effective October 2, 2020

Maintenance margin's increasing as follows (Note: Non-member initial margin rates will be 110% of these)

Tier 1 / now Nov20 from $3000 to $3150 +$150
Rest Unchanged

https://www.cmegroup.com/notices/clearing/2020/10/Chadv20-380.html

This is a podcast/interview with John Arnold "widely regarded as the greatest natural gas trader of all time". It's very long at over 2 hours but one of the very few times I have ever heard John talk about trading so openly. The first hour is entirely about how John got into trading, and his time at Enron and Centaurus, and why he left trading. The later 75 mins is about his philanthropic work which is also very interesting but obviously less relevant to this thread.

The Peter Attia MD Podcast.

https://peterattiamd.com/johnarnold/

#125 – John Arnold: The most prolific philanthropist you may not have heard of "I always recognized the limited social value of trading. I think there is a need for someone to provide risk warehousing and liquidity to markets, but trying to tell the story about how I was adding value or contributing to society was hard. And that always bothered me." — John Arnold

Fascinating listen- first 15 min is childhood/ growing up and then from about 18 min to 1 hour 13 min is trading and then a few min on how he got out/wind down and then his journey into philanthropy... that I will listen to when I get there in life


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Reuters :- Texas Waha natgas prices drop to negative on weak demand

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-natgas-texas/texas-waha-natgas-prices-drop-to-negative-on-weak-demand-idUSKBN2741L2

(For anybody who doesn't know, Waha is West Texas/Permian Basis about 50 miles SW of Midland TX.