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Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little Equities, Fixed Income, Metals and Crypto.
Frequency: Many times daily
Duration: Never
Posts: 5,049 since Dec 2013
Thanks Given: 4,386
Thanks Received: 10,206
Interesting chart in John Kemp's daily energy digest which shows how the US import/export situation has changed over the last 30 years.
While its true imports are down about a third since their peak in 2007, they are still higher than they were pre-1995. What's driven the huge change is all the LNG exports which have exploded in volume the last 5 years.
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little Equities, Fixed Income, Metals and Crypto.
Frequency: Many times daily
Duration: Never
Posts: 5,049 since Dec 2013
Thanks Given: 4,386
Thanks Received: 10,206
NG Margin changes effective COB April 18th, 2022
Maintenance margin's changing as follows (Note: Non-member initial margin rates will be 110% of these)
Tier 1 / May22 increasing from $5150 to $5700 +$550
Tier 2 / Jun22 increasing from $4950 to $5550 +$600
Tier 3-10 / Jul22-Feb23 increasing from $4750 to $5450 +$700
Tier 11 / Mar23 increasing from $4450 to $4750 +$300
Tier 12 / Apr23 increasing from $2150 to $2450 +$300
...
Tier 18 / Oct23 increasing from $1750 to $2000 +$250
...
Tier 21 / Jan24 increasing from $1500 to $1700 +$200
... lots more
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little Equities, Fixed Income, Metals and Crypto.
Frequency: Many times daily
Duration: Never
Posts: 5,049 since Dec 2013
Thanks Given: 4,386
Thanks Received: 10,206
Up, Up and Away...
NG Margin changes effective COB April 20th, 2022
Maintenance margin's changing as follows (Note: Non-member initial margin rates will be 110% of these)
Tier 1 / May22 increasing from $5700 to $6400 +$700
Tier 2 / Jun22 increasing from $5550 to $6250 +$700
Tier 3-10 / Jul22-Feb23 increasing from $5450 to $6150 +$700
Tier 11 / Mar23 increasing from $4750 to $5450 +$700
Tier 12 / Apr23 increasing from $2450 to $2750 +$300
...
Tier 18 / Oct23 increasing from $2000 to $2050 +$50
...
Tier 21 / Jan24 increasing from $1700 to $1850 +$150
... lots more
Europe is turning to Africa for help with weaning them off their dependence on Russia?s natural gas supply, as the war in Ukraine continues to escalate. It?s a move supported by Akinwumi Adesina, the head of the African Development Bank, who said in March, "Europe is looking for alternative sources of gas supply. This can be in Africa." Now, Italy is conducting a diplomatic campaign to discuss the possible diversification of its energy imports, having carried out visits to Algeria and Egypt before Easter, followed by Congo and Angola this month.
As our infographic shows, the continent's largest natural gas exporters by far are Algeria and Nigeria, each with between 35,000 and 40,000 million cubic meters shipped abroad in 2020 (ranked 7th and 8th globally). Last year, these countries were the only two African suppliers of gas to the European Union, accounting for 17 and 4 percent of the EU's natural gas imports, respectively. The other major players in the region are Egypt, Libya, Equatorial Guinea, and Angola. While countries in sub-Saharan Africa have gas reserves, they have not had the interest from abroad and investment needed for the industry to open up access to Europe, according to Al Jazeera.
Three pipelines currently bring natural gas from Africa to Europe; the Transmed, which allows the export from Algeria to Italy (via Tunisia), the Medgaz, which connects Algeria to Spain under the sea, as well as the Greenstream, more modest in capacity, which connects Libya to Sicily. Due to diplomatic tensions with Morocco, Algeria closed the Maghreb-Europe (GME) pipeline, which passes through its neighbor's territory, last October. From 2027, the NIGAL pipeline is expected to transport natural gas from Nigeria (which exports mainly by sea), but construction of this pipeline has not yet begun.
It looks more and more as if the EU has shot itself in the knee with its sanctions. Moscow has started to carry out its threats and to turn off the gas to the first countries in Europe (Poland and Bulgaria). Those who do not want to pay for Russian gas in rubles are taking the same risk.
One day after Russia halted natgas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria due to "nonpayment in rubles", confirming that the country is willing to go ahead with its bluff and shut down supplies to "unfriendly" nations and sending European nat gas prices soaring, Bloomberg reports citing a person close to Russian gas giant Gazprom, that already Europe's fake united front is cracking as four European gas buyers have already paid for supplies in rubles as Russia demanded even as further cutoffs if others refuse the Kremlin?s requirement aren?t likely until the second half of May, when the next payments are due.
While it was unclear which are the four companies violating EU directives and paying directly in rubles, according to Reuters Germany' Uniper and Austrian OMV are among the companies that have folded to Kremlin' demands:
GERMAN UNIPER CO SAYS PAYMENT SCHEME FOR RUSSIAN GAS IN RUBLES DOES NOT CONTRADICT THE SANCTIONS AND IT IS POSSIBLE TO PAY IN RUBLES - OFFICIAL
AUSTRIA AND THE AUSTRIAN OMV HAS ACCEPTED THE TERMS OF PAYMENT FOR RUSSIAN GAS IN RUBLES - AUSTRIAN CHANCELLOR
Pro-Russian EU member Hungary, meanwhile, has struck a deal to pay into a euro-denominated account with Gazprombank, which in turn will deposit the amount in roubles to Gazprom Export, foreign minister Peter Szijjarto said in a video posted to Facebook. Its next payment is due on May 22, he said. Slovakia has reached the same agreement, he added as more of Europe realizes that it is impossible to live without Russian energy sources.
Separately, to facilitate their compliance with Russian demands (and ostensibly in breach of European sanctions), ten European companies have already opened the accounts at Gazprombank needed to meet President Vladimir Putin?s payment demands, the person said, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss confidential matters.
As we reported yesterday, Russia halted gat supplies to Poland and Bulgaria on Wednesday after they refused Gazprom?s proposed mechanism for ruble payments, which the gas giant says does not violate European Union sanctions. Russia supplies gas via pipelines to 23 European countries. Moscow demanded that it be paid in rubles for nat gas shipments after the EU imposed sanctions on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine. However, the EU told member states that the mechanism the Kremlin proposed, which required opening euro and ruble accounts with state-controlled Gazprombank, would violate the sanctions. It appears that to at least 10 energy companies, complying with Russian demands to keep the gas flowing is more important than potentially pissing off some Eurocrats.
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little Equities, Fixed Income, Metals and Crypto.
Frequency: Many times daily
Duration: Never
Posts: 5,049 since Dec 2013
Thanks Given: 4,386
Thanks Received: 10,206
Been two weeks since the last increase, but up again...
Note that since the last update we have had a roll off, but unlike March and April, they did roll the Tiers - well at least for June! So June was $6250, then became $7000 because of the rolloff and it moving up a tier, and is now increasing to $7700. So while this is a $700 increase for Tier 1, June has actually increased $1450 over the two weeks!
NG Margin changes effective COB May 4th , 2022
Maintenance margin's changing as follows (Note: Non-member initial margin rates will be 110% of these)
Tier 1 / Jun22 increasing from $7000 to $7700 +$700
Tier 2-9 / Ju122-Feb23 increasing from $6950 to $7500 +$650
Tier 10 / Mar23 unchanged at $6300 (!?!??)
Tier 12 / Apr23 increasing from $3000 to $3150 +$150
...
Tier 17 / Oct23 increasing from $2400 to $2550 +$150
...
Tier 20 / Jan24 increasing from $2100 to $2400 +$350
... lots more
US Gas Prices Soar As Europe And Asia Scramble For LNG
(By John Kemp, Senior Market Analyst at Reuters / Monday, May 09, 2022 - 02:06 PM)
U.S. gas prices have surged to the highest level in real terms since the financial crisis in 2008 as strong demand for LNG from buyers in Europe and Asia puts pressure on inventories. Front-month futures for gas delivered to Henry Hub in Louisiana are trading at almost $9 per million British thermal units, up from just over $3 at the same point last year and less than $3 in 2019.
Front-month futures have surged into a record backwardation of almost $4 above futures for delivery one-year from now, as traders anticipate inventories will remain under pressure through the rest of the year.
