Thanks!

So is there a fundamental energy shift worldwide (countries turning to cleaner power, cleaner electric power plants) toward nat gas driving the prices higher now since we are almost in summer? (not being sarcastic just trying to learn).
In Oct 2020 the nat gas high was 3.395. Would a short position north of 3.395 make sense to you?

-Bel

67belvedere 

Thanks! So is there a fundamental energy shift worldwide (countries turning to cleaner power, cleaner electric power plants) toward nat gas driving the prices higher now since we are almost in summer? (not being sarcastic just trying to learn). In Oct 2020 the nat gas high was 3.395. Would a short position north of 3.395 make sense to you? -Bel

US is exporting more LNG.

Which contract?

Thanks !

I have a few /QG contracts, bought earlier this month. They are for July delivery. If I roll them beyond delivery date, the gain/ loss would be locked in upon the July delivery date right?

- Bel

ron99 

US is exporting more LNG.

A long time ago, in a country not far away, Henry Hub was the US Natural Gas Benchmark. Most supply areas (West Texas, Gulf Coast, Canada) traded at a modest discount to Henry Hub and most demand areas (MidWest, West Coast, East Coast) traded at a modest premium to Henry Hub. The mega-demand of supply restricted Northeast traded at a significant premium to Henry Hub. Now Henry Hub represents the value of Gulf Coast NG, aka LNG!. Most of the country (not experiencing severe supply restrictions) now trades at a discount to Henry. Pipeline constrained supply areas (West Texas & Appalachians) trade at a significant discount.

TLDR: As @ron99 says, the US is exporting more LNG and Henry Hub is reflecting more and more the fundamentals of the Gulf Coast supply market supplying that export LNG and not necessarily national fundamentals.

67belvedere 

I have a few /QG contracts, bought earlier this month. They are for July delivery. If I roll them beyond delivery date, the gain/ loss would be locked in upon the July delivery date right?

If you close them, you have locked in your gain or loss.
If you roll them, you might realize a profit or loss, but its not locked in. You have rolled your risk to another contract.

Haven't updated this in several months. Will try to do a better job going forward.

NG Margin increase effective June 30, 2021

Maintenance margin's increasing as follows (Note: Non-member initial margin rates will be 110% of these)

Tier 1 / Aug21 from $2050 to $2250 +$200
Tier 2 / Sep21 from $1900 to $2100 +$200
Tier 3 / Oct21 from $1850 to $2000 +$150
Tier 4-8 / Nov21-Mar22 from $1800 to $2000 +$200
Tier 9-15 / Apr22-Oct22 unchanged at $1000

https://www.cmegroup.com/notices/clearing/2021/06/Chadv21-230.html

SMCJB 

Haven't updated this in several months. Will try to do a better job going forward. NG Margin increase effective June 30, 2021 Maintenance margin's increasing as follows (Note: Non-member initial margin rates will be 110% of these) Tier 1 / Aug21 from $2050 to $2250 +$200 Tier 2 / Sep21 from $1900 to $2100 +$200 Tier 3 / Oct21 from $1850 to $2000 +$150 Tier 4-8 / Nov21-Mar22 from $1800 to $2000 +$200 Tier 9-15 / Apr22-Oct22 unchanged at $1000 https://www.cmegroup.com/notices/clearing/2021/06/Chadv21-230.html

Margin increase is effective after close of business on June 30. Or July 1.

Thanks for the info Ron.

I find the nat gas ETH the least confusing futures chart action to me. Ive looked at the RTY, 30 yr T bond, MES and they look like gnats on PCP- I cant pin the price action to a moving average or volume bar, and lost money on most attempts to trade these. But nat gas makes sense to me. So Im sticking to it. The reversals are easy to spot and the trend seems to stick to the direction of reversal pretty faithfully. Corn ETH a close second in my book. But I'm not ashamed to say I know virtually nothing about futures.

-67Bel

Ron,

How do you deal with choppy areas on the chart if you're trying to stay in a trade? I manually adjust stops as the price moves in a direction. During pullbacks I get scared of losing money and get stopped out only to see the price resume in the original direction.

Thanks,
- Bel

67belvedere 

Ron, How do you deal with choppy areas on the chart if you're trying to stay in a trade? I manually adjust stops as the price moves in a direction. During pullbacks I get scared of losing money and get stopped out only to see the price resume in the original direction. Thanks, - Bel

Stick to your plan. Set a point to exit when you enter the trade and don't exit until it hits that point.

On my seasonal trades I set a max loss of $4,000 each contract.

67belvedere 

Ron, How do you deal with choppy areas on the chart if you're trying to stay in a trade? I manually adjust stops as the price moves in a direction. During pullbacks I get scared of losing money and get stopped out only to see the price resume in the original direction. Thanks, - Bel

I prefer mental End of Day-Stopps compared to intraday stopps.

Best regards, Myrrdin