@SMCJB

Thanks for the info. Appreciate it and will of course sign up for his daily newsletter.

Have a nice day

Symple

Must have missed one as these numbers aren't the same as my last update. Changes from missed update in normal, changes from my last update (May 3rd) in red.

Getting expensive to trade Natty but when its moving 40-50c/day I the vol is there.

NG Margin changes effective COB May 13th , 2022

Maintenance margin's changing as follows (Note: Non-member initial margin rates will be 110% of these)

Tier 1 / Jun22 increasing from $8500 to $9400 +$900 (7700 to 9400 +1700)
Tier 2-9 / Ju122-Feb23 increasing from $8300 to $900 +$900 (7500 to 9200 +1700)
Tier 10 / Mar23 increasing from $6900 to $7500 +$600 (6300 to 7500 +1200)
Tier 12 / Apr23 increasing from $3350 to $3700 +$250 (3150 to 3700 +550)
...
Tier 17 / Oct23 increasing from $2650 to $290 +$250 (2550 to 2900 +350)
...
Tier 20 / Jan24 increasing from $2550 to $2800 +$250 (2400 to 2800 +400)
...
lots more

https://www.cmegroup.com/notices/clearing/2022/05/Chadv22-190.html

Another good summary of the situation and possible expectation. The full Q1 commodities report is available at their webpage
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4513969-goehring-and-rozencwajg-q1-2022-natural-resource-market-commentary

Anybody wondering why Natgas is $1.20 off the highs...

https://www.click2houston.com/news/local/2022/06/08/reports-of-explosion-at-lng-oil-and-gas-company-near-surfside-beach-police-say/

Anyone actively trading NG, see the market stop trading in the midst of the insanity today at 1:29PM ET for a full minute?

CME Price limit of 10% from reference price of 9.293 was not reached.

Did the exchange falter, or deliberately halt trading? Biggest buying volume of the day came in immediately following the stop in trading, and stopped the decline.

Verified on 4 different data feeds, no trading during that minute.

Anyone know how to find out what happened exactly?

Futures Operator 

Anyone actively trading NG, see the market stop trading in the midst of the insanity today at 1:29PM ET for a full minute? CME Price limit of 10% from reference price of 9.293 was not reached. Did the exchange falter, or deliberately halt trading? Biggest buying volume of the day came in immediately following the stop in trading, and stopped the decline. Verified on 4 different data feeds, no trading during that minute. Anyone know how to find out what happened exactly?

I believe the answer is Dynamic Circuit Breakers ("DBC") uses a 60 minute lookback. The high trade between 12:29 and 1:28 (Eastern) was $9.623 at 12:36. DBC today was 10% of the previous settlement price which is $0.929 so the level at which the circuit breaker kicks in is $9.623 (not $9.293) - $0.929 = $8.694 which was hit at 1:28 hence the circuit breaker.

Freeport LNG outage longer than expected....

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/freeport-lng-provides-update-on-june-8-incident-at-its-liquefaction-site-301567658.html

"At this time, completion of all necessary repairs and a return to full plant operations is not expected until late 2022. Given the relatively contained area of the facility physically impacted by the incident, a resumption of partial operations is targeted to be achieved in approximately 90 days"

NG down $1.40 !!!!!!!!

SMCJB 

Freeport LNG outage longer than expected.... https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/freeport-lng-provides-update-on-june-8-incident-at-its-liquefaction-site-301567658.html "At this time, completion of all necessary repairs and a return to full plant operations is not expected until late 2022. Given the relatively contained area of the facility physically impacted by the incident, a resumption of partial operations is targeted to be achieved in approximately 90 days" NG down $1.40 !!!!!!!!

@SMCJB

Looks impressive on the charts:





With something like this (Event and then this move), one could already start to talk about the topic of "conspiracy theories". I omit this here however times.

Symple

@SMCJB

The following I guess is the answer to the move:

Germany announces bailout for Gazprom Germania to secure gas supply

The German government said on Tuesday it plans to pump billions of euros into Gazprom Germania in order to prevent the natural gas company from going bankrupt and to secure the country's gas supplies.

The bailout will amount to between €9 billion and €10 billion ($9.4 billion and $10.4 billion), according to dpa sources, and will come via the state development bank KfW.

Gazprom Germania is no longer part of Gazprom after the Russian state-owned firm separated from its German subsidiary on April 1.

The full article you will find here: https://www.msn.com/

Symple

Symple 

The following I guess is the answer to the move:

No the quoted Freeport LNG outage update was the cause of the move. The Freeport LNG outage was initially said to be 4 weeks, now they say 90 days. That's approximately 130 BCF gas that will now be staying in the US that was expected to be exported.