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Joining the party at just before 11 US time and we are already at new highs which makes things a bit tricky, but until “told” otherwise by price action I expect to be long only and looking to enter on a pull back to either the lower trendline or the zones I have indicated.
Profile at this stage suggests normal distribution so will be mindful that there is a real possibility of a test of the low of the day or overnight session around the 71.50 to 72.50 levels.
At these levels I would expect targets to be just inside previous highs at 77.75 until / if that breaks.
First trade set up:
Been eying up the intersection of the marked support zone from the O/N high and the rising channel so have a buy order resting 75.25 lets see if it gets that far – not a trade call obviously!!
No trade in the end
Oh well order left standing by three ticks. I was distracted when there was a further pullback long 1678.00 but it was mid channel so in reality I don’t think I would have taken it anyway.
So no trades today as rules are; no new trades in the last hour, but not trades is no loss so that at least is good – but I won’t pass any combines this way. Patience is a virtue but sorely tested the last two traded days.
Graeme
Never stop learning - never stop applying the knowledge.
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
Just before 11 US time again and clearly in a strong up move, but things are looking like a bit of a stall.
Profile shows single prints from 1682 to 1685 and I think unless the highs get taken then I really would like to see the singles fill and a new “normal distribution” build in the current new drive.
There is 4 points between current price and the bottom of the singles but I am not yet convinced which way this will go. A break of 85.50 and that turning to resistance would give a sell signal otherwise then I need to see a break of the highs and that in turn becoming support for any long at present.
That said, a developing range 86 to 88 may give a scalp from the bottom of the range – not sure I would want to short the top of that.
Having connection interrupts again - 4 in the time to write this so not sure if I will trade again
UPDATE Oh man oh man oh man – two trades exactly as predicted messed up by the dulcet tones of my PC going “PING CONNECTION LOST!!!”
Enough is enough - so after I removed myself from the head shaped hole in my wall – I installed a new ADSL filter to see if that is the problem – no trades again as I now have to see the session out with no connection drops to be comfortable trading again.
Graeme
Never stop learning - never stop applying the knowledge.
Man that sucks! I can relate. I had constant adsl issues at my previous home. As if trading isn't hard enough, I had the additional challenge of wondering not if, but when my adsl would disconnect. Added to that was the fact that the 3G signal in that area was so cr@p I couldn't even rely on it to get out of trades in an emergency. Luckily since moving the adsl is pretty good.
Maybe consider getting a back up connection you can use in emergencies eg: 3G
Just thought i'd pop in and say, I share your pain!
3G here is not great too!! But I can tether if needs be but prefer "proper" broadband if possible as I worry about the 3G dropping too lol
BUT I have taken the phone and filter out and turned off everything near it and so far no disconnects in about an hour - so fingers crossed but need to see it go a bit longer to be sure!
Thanks for dropping by - I do appreciate it!
Thanks
Graeme
Never stop learning - never stop applying the knowledge.
Just before 11 US time again and a down move to test the POC from 19 July see the charts below for further comment:
First trade set up:
Took this almost immediately and frankly got suckered by my bias - looked like rejection as shown above and forming a higher low against support, but in reality it turned out to be a pullback only and my stop was hit quite quickly.
Error based on not taking the time to study the orderflow to support the trade. Bad move and I need to perhaps add some sort of time delay from starting the charts to first trade to prevent this sort of thing.
Will update if more trades taken.
UPDATE - Oh great - here we go again connection dropped and could do nothing for 10 minutes!! In a nutshell I cant be having this anymore so will not trade again until a phone engineer has found the problem!! Can't tell you how frustrating this is right now! Never mind - I will persevere and get there in the end!
Graeme
Never stop learning - never stop applying the knowledge.
Well here’s hoping! Had a phone engineer in to diagnose the connection issues I have been having lately and lo and behold some cowboy had completely bypassed the correct wiring in the master socket. No wonder the thing was dying all the time!
Now rewired and have run a ping test for 24 hours and average ping 23 (with no apps running) and only 0.2% packet loss so hope things have resolved.
Running all software now and will do for a couple of days to see if hold then back at it
Aim to start first actual combine in next two weeks.
Graeme
Never stop learning - never stop applying the knowledge.
The last few days have been spent trying out a number of methods and software the trades from which were not noted here as they were outside of the remit of the and far too many to make sense posting.
However the results of these and the musings over the recent weeks have helped me form a revised and narrowed down trade plan which I set out below.
Location:
UK
Combine:
$30k 20 day
Markets to be traded:
ES only until consistent methodology evaluated
Trading hours:
Mid-Morning to US close (Some days market open)
Methodology:
Pre-Defined Trade Set Ups – Indicator based.
Discretionary Set Ups - Market Profile trades. Trend Following using trendline entry.
Charting:
Ninja Trader 7 – Daily, I hour, 1000T and Market Profile
Entry Conditions/Checklist
1/ Signal line indicator generated – but not confirmed until close of candle beyond signal line – enter on open next candle.
2/ Enter with trend only unless outside of value area with expectation of reversal – e.g. normal distribution type profiles expectations.
3/ Tight range price action 6-8 tick range creates signal – NO TRADE.
4/ Is there space to target – if not NO TRADE
5/ OCO applied to trade? Adjust to correct position Stop 4 ticks below Point A Target 138.2% Fib Extension.
6/ 100% Fib extension stop to BE.
7/ 138.2% Fib extension OR 2 x risk if closer - Target Hit take profit
8/ If sideways PA for 30 mins stop trade
9/ Journal Trade including post trade MFE
Entry Conditions/Checklist
1/ Signal indicator generated
2/ Enter with stop order 2 ticks below signal candle
3/ PULL order if high of signal candle is violated even by one tick
4/ Enter with trend only unless outside of value area with expectation of reversal – e.g. normal distribution type profiles expectations.
5/ Tight range price action 6-8 tick range creates signal – NO TRADE.
6/ Is there space to target – if not NO TRADE
7/ OCO applied to trade? Adjust to correct position Stop 4 ticks outside of signal bar - Target 138.2% Fib Extension.
7/ 100% Fib extension stop to BE.
8/ 138.2% Fib extension 2 x risk if closer Target Hit take profit
9/ If sideways PA for 30 mins stop trade
10/ Journal Trade including post trade MFE
Discretionary Trade Set Ups
Market Profile Trades:
Entry Conditions/Checklist
1/ Fade of market extremes outside of value area
2/ Enter with signs of absorption or cumulative delta divergence at extremes within 5 ticks of high/low when normal distribution type profiles expected.
3/ Stop to be 2 points above the high
4/ Profit target 5 ticks inside the closest of Volume or TPO POC.
5/ Is there space to target – if not NO TRADE
6/ OCO applied to trade? Adjust to correct positions as above
7/ 50% to target stop to BE.
8/ Target Hit take profit
9/ If sideways PA for 30 mins stop trade
10/ Journal Trade including post trade MFE
Trendline Trades:
Entry Conditions/Checklist
1/ Identify strong trending PA defined as all moving averages in “correct order” and distance between price and PAS Stop lines.
2/ Enter on breaks of pullback trendlines with increasing volume and delta divergence in the direction of trade.
3/ Stop to be 2 points Price Action Stop Line
4/ No Profit target – Trailing stop strategy
5/ Stop to BE on next pullback break.
6/ Take profit on being stopped using trailing stop lines
7/ If sideways PA for 30 mins stop trade
8/ Journal Trade including post trade MFE
Account Protection:
Stop after maximum three losses in a row, or if next trade stop loss would take account above daily loss if sooner.
No trades with more than 16 ticks of risk
Trade Protection:
Auto OCO stops and targets (unless trend following - stop only), maximum 4 points per trade. Flat 10 minutes before major news announcements.
Talking Forex service from RAN Squawk.
Lot sizing:
Trade start one lot until account P&L > $1,000,
Then increase by one at each $1,000 increment.
Reduce lot size if P&L returns below thresholds.
Adding to positions:
Only add to a position if the first, or successive lots are secured by a stop at BE or better and on another valid signal in the direction of trade.
Journaling and Reviewing
Simple Journal everything – review at the end of each combine/month of trading once live – make constructive alterations based on analysis and do it over again.
As always if anyone cares to comment – especially TST members here that would be great!
Graeme
Never stop learning - never stop applying the knowledge.
Simply to trade only set ups from the new trading plan and not allow discretion outside of those rules. I need reliable data to evaluate the combine results so there is no room for emotions or indecisions and alterations.
Day State:
Range extension to the downside based on daily charts. At the time I get in this has already happened and a potential low posted at 1640 area. Therefore missed MP long set up based on failed test of yesterday’s low and too far North of that for a long with reasonable risk reward. Waiting for pullback to 1644 to 46 area and a valid signal to enter a short.
First & Only trade:
Short Market Profile set up but momentum was still there so stopped very quickly – need to read strength better – 8 ticks.
Best thing from today:
My new rules kept me out of 5 trades that I would probably have taken previously the sum total of which would have taken me to Daily Loss Limit and 30% of total drawdown allowed! The one in plan trade lost $105 – entirely OK with me!!
Worst thing:
Sitting on hands during such volatility. But so be it – as someone said earlier; better not to try and jump on the moving bus – less chance of getting run over!
Lesson of the day:
Plan has a trend pullback trendline set up within it. It is clear that I need to concentrate much harder to spot and execute these correctly. I missed three (in hindsight) – one of which the market ran through too quick – but I didn't chase so all good.
Graeme
Never stop learning - never stop applying the knowledge.
I identified yesterday that I need to practice the trendline set up in my plan more effectively so that is my primary focus today as other setups are signalled by software or at easily identifiable areas in advance.
Day State:
Yesterday’s daily move was very bearish initial movement but the close was high suggesting a move up next day. Today ‘s action at time of writing (11:15 CST) was a test of yesterday’s high which had been rejected but still being tested. Therefore it would make sense from a profile point of view not to initially short MP highs and look for pullbacks outside of lower value for position type longs.
That said, signals for shorter term shorts could still be taken with tight risk as another option is to build value within the POC of the last two days between 1646 to 1654 areas.
First & Only trade:
Short ABC signal = entry was flawed as price closed ON the signal line not past it. So I did not trade to the rule – stopped out. Annoyed with the error – normally the margin between success and failure can be wide – this time it was one tick – I should not have been in that trade pure and simple.
Best thing from today:
Best thing from today: Risk still in control so losses not becoming an issue as yet.
Worst thing:
Definitely THE worst was jumping the gun by one tick trading a close ON not through a signal line as per rules. Second worst missed another trendline break courtesy of chart messing up needing restarting and a profile entry getting food DOH!
Lesson of the day:
Distractions are inevitable – no problem in that – breaking a rule on the other hand is not to be encouraged – one rule I did not add to my plan - but will mentally is - break rule – go stand in the corner with a dunce hat on until tomorrow and no more trades - harsh but necessary!
Graeme
Never stop learning - never stop applying the knowledge.
Following yesterday’s rule breach - Today’s simple goal – trade the plan with no exceptions
Day State:
After the down days of last week yesterday’s rally looks over done and as at 09:12 CST we had a text of value from 16/08 which was rejected. In Profile terms there is a whole range that looks like it could do with building into between current highs of around 1661 down to around the 50 handle.
So initial thoughts would be range day between these levels fading these extremes if possible.
Shorter term trades can be taken if there is space to target.
First trade:
Short ABC signal = 1654.00 entry 1656.75 stop and target 1650.00 Immediately went in favour 4 ticks then got an opposing long signal and rules say flat and reverse if appropriate. Took profit 1653.00 and price shot up so no good risk reward and second trade passed. +4 ticks
The opposing ABC long that flattened the first trade went on to hit target but would have been stopped by the DT signal as below.
Second trade:
Double Top as per plan entry 1654.50 Stop 1657.00 target 1651.75 plan taken as per plan. Had some sideways flapping about and real indecision probably based on the relative speed of the last moves. Stop hit -10.
Third trade:
Trendine break long entry 1658.00 stop 1656.00 target 1660.50 moved in favour then 3 bars on static before reversing and taking out the stop. -8
Fourth trade:
Trendline short entry 1657.25 stop 1658.50 target 1656.00 opposing ABC signal – flat +3
Fifth Trade:
ABC long that flattened previous was confirmed so took the long 1657.25 stop 1655.25 target 1660.25. 30 mins flat lined so time stop envoked at BE. After two hours rules would have put it to BE anyway so neutral result.
Best:
Pre market range analysis was quite accurate, 5 trades executed 100% according to rules. 2 x reversal signal stops saved 16 ticks of loss AND 2 hours of pain in the afternoon’s sideways markets lol.
Worst:
Still a negative day but only $125. Three negative days in a row – hopefully bad things really do only come in threes! Bring it on Monday!!
Lesson of the day:
My pre-market analysis has been pretty good lately – and I will need to bring this into the plan. The dilemma is that I need data on my current plan without tweaking it after three days!
Graeme
Never stop learning - never stop applying the knowledge.
