Hi all

Daily Trading Goal:

Again focus on the non-software signalled trendline trades to increase efficiency of trade executions. Assuming market conditions allow take at least two such trades – but not forced if conditions do not allow trades that are in plan.

Day State:

In Market Profile Terms Friday’s RTH close was above POC and looked strong. Overnight we have already seen moves up to 1667 which has been defended and the market is moving back to test Friday value and probably POC at 1660 which I would expect to be a line in the sand below that 58 should also prove difficult to get through. So in summary my expectation today is a possible re-test of 60 level before a range extension above 67.



First trade:

I am going to add my thoughts to the trades as I go – this may prove to be a useful look back tool to see if there are any psychological reasons / commonalities to stops being moved or trades closed outside of rules – this is in addition to short notes in the journal.

08:36 - Long ABC signal = 1661.50 entry 1658.75 stop and target 1666.50.
08:53 - Trade went to within 2 ticks of the level at which the stop is to be moved to Break Even, and started to pullback. I also had now a rising trendline, today’s open and yesterday’s close and yesterday’s Value Area High ahead of the stop level so felt OK to leave it at this point.
09:05 – I get an opposing ABC short signal, but has not yet confirmed this is when price is at 1663.00. This is no-man’s land for today so far and has not yet confirmed so waiting to see how it develops before acting.
09:07 - Another ABC short signal, but again not yet confirmed – watching closely now. 09:11 – Both ABC shorts invalidated and price moved ahead so now rules allow the stop t0 move to BE +2. As my first position is secured I would now look at add if the right long entry is signalled with room to go to 66.50 with reasonable risk reward.
09:18 - I also now have an upward trend channel marked and price at upper line – expect some sort of pullback here – but position secured in any case.
09:28 – Price looking to stall at 1665.50 level maybe reversing as have a lower high here. Considering moving stop to under swing low to protect gains. Stop to 1663.25 – Co-incidentally my indicator stop line is at the same value.
09:49 – Bulls still timid and really need to see the next push up hit target if it gets within 1-2 ticks and order flow starts absorbing then will consider flattening.
09:57 Target filled. +20

Second Trade:

11:37 - ABC Short signal confirmed at 1665.25 Stop 1667.5 Target 1661.75. I have taken the signal as the combine is designed to take the signals in the plan. I am less happy with this signal, as my bias in the morning was up and the trend line I had established could provide support. But the target does fit in with current market structure and recent Lower low and lower high. Also many days we see reversals around the 10:30 to 11:30 time slots so if the day turns to a more normal distribution then it could make sense. 11:54 - Sideways chop here which suggests market is also unsure. Will be looking to put the time stop in place if does not resolve one way or another in the 30 minutes window.
12:07 - No movement or volume so took -3 on a time stop.

In between trade musings:

Whilst I was away getting food we had another ABC short confirmed at the same price that was missed this time supported by a hidden divergence signal on cumulative delta.
13:38 - ABC Long but pre-ceding action tight range so no trade as rules.

Third Trade:

14:15 – Big drive down and 1658.00 is a good MP level so long taken – it was a hard move so I am mindful that I need to see the “elastic band” pulling back hard. Target 1660.00 Stop 1656.00
14:18 - Getting bad feeling now – this is stalling and order flow looks like more to the downside. Stop to BE. 14:19 Glad I did that BE it is and momentum building more to the downside.
14:26 – Price finally turned at 53.50 so very good job I covered at scratch.

In between trade musings:

14:28 I did have order at 1652.00 as Friday’s low which was next logical long but missed by 3 ticks.

Best thing:

Pre market range analysis was accurate in terms of initial trade levels – but not in terms of anticipated extension. The 2 trades executed 100% according to rules. Positive day +17.

Worst thing:

Missing a signal while eating – buy hey there you go!! Also disappointing to only get 3 trades from the first full session in ages – but rules are rules – simples!!

Lesson of the day:

I am building confidence in my pre-market/trade analysis but will need to finish what I have started before adding this more firmly into any plan.

Graeme

Hi all

Daily Trading Goal:

Trade to bring the combine account back into the black by keeping risk tight and trading strictly in line with plan.

Day State:

At time of writing 11:00CST we have seen a move down from the holiday price action and I suspect will test at least the VAH from 30 Aug around 1633 – 1634. This is a full 3 points lower than current price and a second distribution forming with a top at 1640.00. So therefore shorts in market profile terms around 1640.00 would have acceptable risk reward, and longs 1633-1644 unless proven otherwise.




First trade:

11:59 Long Based on Market Profile as per analysis above. Entry 1633.50 Stop 1629.75 Target 1639.00. There are several profile levels in between entry and stop so have reasonable comfort in placing the trade which is in-line with trade plans exactly.
12:00 Traded down to 31.25 which is in region of POC from Aug 30 which is fine so far. Key really is for that level to hold – if it does not then my trade premise could be proved very wrong.
12:17 ABC long in support of trade but target would be 37.25 so adjusted price target to that level.
12:28 ABC Short now – if confirms then flat as rules.
12:40 ABC invalid.
12:43 DT signal short - which should mean flat but entry 2 ticks below so moved to BE only at this point in case bulls go for one last drive up. Triple top on zero volume at 35.50 suggests otherwise but two ticks of “profit” is worth the risk.
12:45 scratched


Second trade:

13:35 ABC Short confirmed entry 32.75 stop 36.50 target 29.00. This is in plan. Target is above next long target area of 28.50 so room for trade. Stop above the 35.50 triple top. Only concern is if the bulls decide that triple is enough as that will clearly then hit my stop in a stop run.
13:45 ABC long – not yet confirmed became invalid
13:55 Probe low of day by three ticks then sharp retrace up. This is a concern but not yet to the point of wanting to exit. I am mindful that this could be a step down range and I am near the time stop for this position
14:04 Stop hit -15.


Best thing:

Both trades taken according to plan.


Worst thing:

It is frustrating that watching the market I was able to “call” a few clear volume moves and levels / breaks. Yet I don’t have this in my trade plan. I am however determined to finish the combine with the rules I started with but use the lessons to tweak the plan appropriately at the end.


Lesson of the day:

I am feeling frustrated as I said – but rules are king even if I don’t like them – no discipline – no chance

Graeme

Hi all

Daily Trading Goal:

After another losing day yesterday there is a real need to keep risk as tight as possible. A run of losing days is always a possibility – so keeping risk tight to make sure I keep well within both daily loss limit and maximum drawdown. I definitely don’t want to blow my first combine through hitting the drawdown.

Day State:

At time of writing 10:50CST we have already seen a strong trend develop and price is now testing lows from 23 & 26 August. Need to be careful ahead of the Beige Book, and I don’t think Profile Based Shorts are the order of the day at all for now.

For now looking to see long only signals unless we were to trade back below 1640 area as that might indicate change of bias.

So initially looking for long only signals.



13:14 and no trades have signalled. I am closing the TST combine with no trades for now, but may scalp in demo based on volume/order flow as an experiment.

Best thing:

Came into trade at top of the trend this morning. Maintained discipline and did not trade in combine at all as there were no rule based entries given.

Worst thing:

Sore eyes from staring at slo mo!!

Lesson of the day:

No trades, whilst tedious, is a good day, as rules kept and capital preserved to trade another day

Graeme

Hi all

Daily Trading Goal:

Simply to keep risk tight and take each trade on its own merits – no need to dwell on loses taken within trade rules.

Day State:

Must admit structurally I thought we would get some uplift today, then employment figures were not great – but market had a small up tick supporting that view. Then we took off down to the high from the 4th RTH which I really thought would hold but got blasted away and now we are looking at a strong trend day down.
For now looking to see short only signals unless we were to trade back above 1655 area as that might indicate change of bias.

So initially looking for short only signals.



First Trade:

Based on my initial thoughts and before I wrote the above when price hit 1654.75 and volume paused I went long based on the initial MP based levels trade – entry was 1655.25 and stop was tight at 1654.00, target was 1658.00 as RTH highs from yesterday. This is less than I would normally allow but my sub-conscious must have warned me this was dumb – probably the speed of move down – I don’t really know. In any case stop hit within seconds -5 ticks

09:15 ABC short signalled but stop would have to be placed beyond stop loss limit in rules. So passed on trade.

Second Trade:

09:27 Short from 1648.75 which is overnight low and top of RTH single prints from 4th. Stop 1650.75 Target 1641.25 which was VAH from 3rd and well inside current lows so good risk reward.
Immediately went against by 6 ticks played for a while then took the stop. -8 ticks

Third Trade:

12:23 After two previous failed fill sat this level I got short 1660.50 as fade play of the highs / Initial Balance High targeting just above POC as per rules stop 1662.50 target 1655.50 good risk reward so expect to hold this to target, stop or end of day if needed. Stop again -8.

Best thing:

Nothing – except perhaps the patience to wait for the levels and trading the rules I have.

Worst thing:

Three in a row stopped and seeing two perfect levels not fill – and then of course third time fill and stopped out.

Lesson of the day:

Mentally another ridiculously tough day. So much movement and no reward. Good levels blown through, good levels without fills that would have been winners. Seeing momentum changes and ranges but not in good locations or no signals, etc etc.

I know this combine will fail even half way through. BUT it has already proved a massive learn, so to the end I am eternally grateful!

Graeme

Hi all

Just for the record I will not be trading at all this week due to professional exams next week related to my day job, and there are simply not enough hours in the day to work, study and dedicate time to trading with discipline.

Best way forward sometimes is to take step back!

Graeme