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A TopStepTrader's Humble-Pie-Way: A TST Combine Journal of iqgod's "Take 2"


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A TopStepTrader's Humble-Pie-Way: A TST Combine Journal of iqgod's "Take 2"

  #41 (permalink)
 
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 iqgod 
Mumbai, India
Legendary Market Wizard
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: ChartNexus
Trading: Stocks, Commodities, Futures
Posts: 1,802 since Feb 2012
Thanks Given: 3,658
Thanks Received: 3,097

I am still collecting my thoughts about the trading I did today. It was good trading analysis but bad physical trading, since trading is a physical activity as well which is separate from armchair analysis and prediction.

I had great intuition but did not know the concrete path to follow that intuition and be led by it instead of injecting my ego and front running the market. This sentence will hopefully become crystal clear by the time I end this post.


I posted the annotated trade chart in this post.

However I was too overwhelmed to type in anything.

Cardinal Sins:

1. The first sin I made was that I entered too early, without waiting for the market to confirm my analysis.

2. The second sin I made today was I did not estimate risk correctly - by the time it was apparent that my position entailed a stop worth more than $300 I was already cursing myself. However I had the sense to adjust my stop to the new far off position (6484). BUT cardinal sin: I moved my stop. Divine Intuition: I moved my stop to the correct place after which the uptrend would have been confirmed.

Side-effects:

Entering early with a huge stop simply means that I could not enter at an opportune moment then reverse at will and then enter again - no less than three trades passed before my eyes and I could only screw my eyes and stare.

The cardinal sin I DID NOT commit was "Doubling up". Thank heavens that minimal good sense did prevail.



What exactly happened?

Corn has been wild for the past two days.

Corn's Monday close of $6.43 was a sheer 85 cent drop.

Prices gapped through support and then opened gap up today - note that this was expected after the super sharp fall - the only thing in my mind was "I want to go short" - but the question was WHERE?

The trade I took makes it very clear that I let this pre-market analysis BIAS me into taking a short postion without listening to the complete story on the tape.

I entered at 6420. (marked) The stop was at 6445

Then I saw price moving upwards. My stop was still not hit.

Two factors told me that a reversal was still not on the cards:

1. There was no trend channel-line break
2. Prices were holding above the double top support level which had been penetrated - this indicated further bullish momentum.

Then I dealt the cards as follows:

3. The trade risk was still within manageable limit because I was dealing with a single lot and I could safely assume more tisk without hitting my daily loss limit. Risk management is always the priority customer even when your shop is closed for renovation.
4. I moved the original stop to 6484 and then watch the price gyrate toward 6470 - this was the torturous part. This also highlights the importance of waiting for correct entries - the MAE gets agonizing and might have made me click the exit button but I stayed calm (+1)
5. Price printed a lower high. I realized I had missed not one but two good trades - a long trade starting where I so hurriedly got short AND a short trade once 6444 was broken.
6. I set the target to 6416.
7. Price dropped as if going over a cliff and then stopped at 6434 and started reversing. This was the scary part. Now was this a pull back in an uptrend? Not likely, I thought because the downmove had been sharp. I waited and continued sitting on my hands.
8. As expected price traded through my target of 6416, and I was filled - this had been one long trade.
9. As also expected buyer overwhelmed sellers at 6414 and price moved upwards.
10. By this time I was completely exhausted, but the deeds I did spoke of the flaws to be eliminated (working on it) and showed me that I had come far on this trading journey.


Special thanks to Bob Volman and Al Brooks for making everything possible. I am full of gratitude today.

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  #42 (permalink)
 
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 iqgod 
Mumbai, India
Legendary Market Wizard
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: ChartNexus
Trading: Stocks, Commodities, Futures
Posts: 1,802 since Feb 2012
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Thanks Received: 3,097

Posting all the charts I was watching - the price action tied up nicely and each time-frame confirmed by analysis - this is the beauty of the markets:

5-min with all trades:




15-min




30-min




The 15-minute was the easiest to trade and the 30-min wasn't bad either.

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  #43 (permalink)
 
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 iqgod 
Mumbai, India
Legendary Market Wizard
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: ChartNexus
Trading: Stocks, Commodities, Futures
Posts: 1,802 since Feb 2012
Thanks Given: 3,658
Thanks Received: 3,097


I forgot to add that there was a lost opportunity cost associated with fiddling with Corn - it was this:

I was watching CL 1-hour chart from the corner of an eye - my ZC drawdown had reached $200 when I spotted the wodnerful CL short trade opportunity that comes once in a blue moon. A short! A short! A perfect pinbar short! screamed the market.

Alas, I couldn't take the short and risk hitting my daily loss limit :-(

Here is the missed trade shown in gory detail:





Discalimer: Deep inside I know that I am not yet mentally ready to short and hold so capturing that 200 tick drop is an illusion (though a GOAL) - however I could easily have walked away with the first 50 ticks after which I surely would have exited.

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  #44 (permalink)
 
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 iqgod 
Mumbai, India
Legendary Market Wizard
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: ChartNexus
Trading: Stocks, Commodities, Futures
Posts: 1,802 since Feb 2012
Thanks Given: 3,658
Thanks Received: 3,097


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  #45 (permalink)
 
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 iqgod 
Mumbai, India
Legendary Market Wizard
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: ChartNexus
Trading: Stocks, Commodities, Futures
Posts: 1,802 since Feb 2012
Thanks Given: 3,658
Thanks Received: 3,097

Today ends up with me trading the 6J (initially well, then allowing over trading to happen, followed by two trades fueled by revenge) - it should come as no surprise that I end with -$395, down below $30,000 initial balance.

In trading I get what I deserve, and this is a just dessert.

The mistakes far outweigh the good things that occasionally manifested in me:


Did not do homework - jumped into the market unaware of Bank of Japan announcement or the earthquake in Japan.

Even though unaware of the news events I could see the short opportunity on the tape! (+1)

Did not take the short - this has been happening over and over and over - I am skipping the best trades.

Read tape well - Correctly anticipated reversal and placed stop where the theory would have been invalidated.

Revenge traded. Wanted to be made whole again. Last two trades were AGAINST the trend.

Realizing that this is a TEMPORARY setback. This is just ONE losing day.

The biggest one? I was slow. I could see the losses coming and I would have been able to avert them had I been mindful - instead I placed my limit order just as the market escaped its net.

I had stopped trading after I was flat. I could sense the impending overtrading coming.

But.... I did not follow the maximum trade rule and I got back in hoping to end up in positive.

I stopped trading after I reached 80% of my daily loss limit.

The worst mistake? I kept watching and allowed my full stops to be hit. Even though the tape was crystal clear that I was wrong I clinged on hope.

I wasn't deceitful with myself today. I could distinguish the truth and the falsehood the market was offering without bias.

Overtraded.

I was full of compassion for @indextrader7 - somewhere deep inside I believe I made myself lose today because tried to express this sympathy by getting into losing trades - please don't flame me for this because I know @indextrader7 is tough and will rebound but thinking with sympathy works on a subconscious level and is best avoided - this is a business. (Sorry @indextrader7, I am without prejudice really, but I had to get this off my chest - of course it is a silly way to put it and I alone take full responsibility for my internal dialogues). Sorry @indextrader7 !

I held on to a loser for a much longer period than was warranted. I need to put in a TIME STOP and cut trades that are not working for the sake of this combine.

There was NO hesitation today - I was ready! However...

X - I created an environment full of internal sadness and clutter today. (This was the only mindful observation I had before I lost it completely.)

X - I was without compassion today for the members of the family (kids, wife, parents - all were vying for my attention and I was glued to my trading screen). This is a sure fire way of killing intuitive function. When I am without compassion the demon takes over. That happened.

X - Execution sucked... I could not move fast enough though I had precious time (multiples of seconds... ). The second mistake was that I was long and the stop was not hit and the market reversed but the MAE scared me into moving my target to a loser level. Had I allowed the target to remain (Remember @PandaWarrior's advice? "Do not mess with a trade (targets/stops) once in position!") this would have been a profitable trade and I would have stopped trading further, and this story ugly would not have materialized.



The summary: I thrived on technical competence initially, but then wanted to become "whole" again so over traded and then took two mad trades against the near trend (what was @iqgod thinking - he is Superman? - fighting with the Bank of Japan and an Earthquake)

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  #46 (permalink)
 
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 iqgod 
Mumbai, India
Legendary Market Wizard
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: ChartNexus
Trading: Stocks, Commodities, Futures
Posts: 1,802 since Feb 2012
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Thanks Received: 3,097


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  #47 (permalink)
 
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 iqgod 
Mumbai, India
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Posts: 1,802 since Feb 2012
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I need to talk about so many things, dear journal.... be all ears.

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  #48 (permalink)
 
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 iqgod 
Mumbai, India
Legendary Market Wizard
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: ChartNexus
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Posts: 1,802 since Feb 2012
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Like @AttitudeTrader would say using some military analogies - Loss Braking... Slowly to Reverse to Profits soon (I'm not versed with gunspeak so he would probably say something different :-) )

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  #49 (permalink)
 
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 iqgod 
Mumbai, India
Legendary Market Wizard
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: ChartNexus
Trading: Stocks, Commodities, Futures
Posts: 1,802 since Feb 2012
Thanks Given: 3,658
Thanks Received: 3,097

Dear Journal,

How I ignore you!

This is a written reminder to myself: Day 4 & 5 Blow By Blow Accounts are still Pending.

It gives me shivers to post the crap. If I mine all that crap and make use of the experiences then it isn't crap but a gold mine - "The Well of Lost Trades - What Not To Do In Trading, and Areas of Improvement".

However unless I journal those experiences they will be lost to the will-o-wisp, and then where would the learning come from?

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  #50 (permalink)
 
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 rubyslippage 
Phoenix, AZ
 
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iqgod View Post
There was NO hesitation today - I was ready! However...

X - I created an environment full of internal sadness and clutter today. (This was the only mindful observation I had before I lost it completely.)

X - I was without compassion today for the members of the family (kids, wife, parents - all were vying for my attention and I was glued to my trading screen). This is a sure fire way of killing intuitive function. When I am without compassion the demon takes over. That happened.

X - Execution sucked... I could not move fast enough though I had precious time (multiples of seconds... ). The second mistake was that I was long and the stop was not hit and the market reversed but the MAE scared me into moving my target to a loser level. Had I allowed the target to remain (Remember @PandaWarrior's advice? "Do not mess with a trade (targets/stops) once in position!") this would have been a profitable trade and I would have stopped trading further, and this story ugly would not have materialized.

Pre-market, close your door, no distractions, technical and fundamental research (news), note important levels, etc.

Pre-market warm up, something you're good at that you can do quickly, get in the mode of acting quickly - word search, juggling, hackysack, or just tossing a small ball back and forth from one hand to the other - do this to get your mind in "here/now" focus mode.

Pre-market reminder - "I have great skills. Perfect execution brings the profitable outcome. I look forward to paying for my inventory (trades). With inventory, I have a thriving business. I look forward to putting my inventory out there. Customers will be there to buy some of it for a good price when it's in demand. I will clear out the not-so-hot inventory for the small loss and free up my working capital for the next hot thing. I have great skills. Perfect execution brings the profitable outcome."


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Last Updated on June 24, 2013


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