Wednesday, 6/19/13


A big day is expected, expanding that "day" reference to 24 hours. EIA + FOMC = OMG movement, most likely.


Price has been bracketing since Friday, with value rising just slightly.




The green zone above is the merged value area




And I just caught the news, there is a followup Chairman Press Conference at 2:30pm, just as crude closes, could it be Bernanke's Last Stand?


No fibs still

GaryD 

And I just caught the news, there is a followup Chairman Press Conference at 2:30pm, just as crude closes, could it be Bernanke's Last Stand?

There is usually a press conference following the FOMC statement... (edit: supposed to be quarterly, but I think this can vary depending on meeting dates). There is a script released at the time, which Bernanke then reads in his usual way, and then questions.

Happy you have been doing so well recently Gary, thanks for your recent posts.

Going to try a short to start the day. I picked Y HOD. I most likely will not go to stop if wrong. But just sitting here watching. Will close or pull tight at EIA.








Initial Stop around 1.5SD ETH, and beyond that volume valley

This reversal set on the footprint is where I made my decision to enter. Had been eyeing the short side since before the open. Several reasons, including the test of the excess.

I had entered short a litle earlier, and then closed at -3, it felt like, I don;t know. But not right.

closed


net 27 on a wacky day

josh 

There is usually a press conference following the FOMC statement... (edit: supposed to be quarterly, but I think this can vary depending on meeting dates). There is a script released at the time, which Bernanke then reads in his usual way, and then questions. .

Posen: Who Will Replace Bernanke? - CNBC


But not with his replacement in the headlines.

Wednesday eveining


Took the Jeep to the beach early, roughly 3pm. Laid out, did some bodysurfing in puny waves, searched 6 restaurant for raw clams, then they closed on us and we ate crap at the charter boat bar. Drove home with wind in our faces. Talked about life, a word simliar to fuck, on that it can have as many meanings.


She held my hand on the drive home. She had already heard all of the new analogies I had come up with since we got in the Jeep. We just drank beer and ate. And walked down the docks looking at the boats. Would you want one again conmversation...


"This fits me" I said, after 4 beers, and I handed in my card, explaining I had to drive home. Cut myself off.


But it was a night where I would have preferred to have had a room and drank til we could talk no more.

will edit later. Grabbing thoughts. Too fast today

I have been a buyer today so far. Sitting +58

I hit max down today. I knew we opened was out of range, but it was so far that it seemed like it was already finding a new value. I contued to see the green shaded area as aggressive responsive buyers, and as I bought pullback, I would get runover, then it would accept value again, I would buy a pullback, get runover...

It happens, I know that. I saw the opening frive, that should have been some hint to go short, and I also saw that price never did break above ETH VWAP for the entire RTH session. Just stuck in a certain way of seeing the market today, and just as I was ready to abandon it, it would confirm it again...

Even though I can see it now, in real time the buying looked, and was, very real. Price tried to break out 3 times in a row. I think going from a bullish tendency market to a market where we maybe saw panic again, I was not able to rewire fast enough.

Net -109


But, on a good note, I was ok with it today. Because I must make decisions, I will be wrong sometimes. But, I continue to manage from my perspective. Today may change that perspective going forward.

I was wrong. I am allowed to be wrong, and learn from it.

Friday


Took a long in the globex session, after Asia opened, closed net 35. Price did keep moving higher, but I was going to bed, and it causes me to wake up all through the night to check that evertything is ok, I have not lost service, computer has not crashed, power has not gone off, etc.

Pre-open, price came back up into an area I kept wrongly defining as support yesterday. Or maybe not wrongly, as there was buying there, but I was trying to be a buyer higher up than that, after confirming someone stronger than me turned price, and had a hard time making money from it.




Around 4:30am price once again tested that 95.80ish top.






We saw the movie After Earth recently, and there was a quote that I thought was great relating to trading;

"Fear is not real. The only place that fear can exist is in our thoughts of the future. It is a product of our imagination, causing us to fear things that do not at present, and may not ever, exist. That is near insanity.

Do not misunderstand me, danger is very real, but fear is a choice.

We are all telling ourselves a story, and that day mine changed."


Fear is only one of the stories we tell ourselves as traders. Through practice, we are able to change the stories that cause bad trading habits. I felt this sense of connection with that quote as he said it, knowing first hand that there have been moments, not as well-defined as one particular day maybe but extending over a period of time typically, where my stories have changed.