In case anyone wants to play with it.

GaryD 

I would expect some version of balancing given the 1) potential major pivot in the 89.30 area, 2) Friday with additional media about potential conflicts in Iran. But I would wait for volume to suggest where, and I may not get that until later

This is the first time I have ever referred to market behavior as "balancing". And had I possesed any real faith in that concept I would have traded it much better. Price closed 2 ticks from the day's POC.




I have a long way to go with understanding market profile. I expect to put in 6-8 hours of study over the weekend, another 4 hours squeezed into next week, another 6-8 hours probably the next weekend, probably maintain some schedule like that for the next year, or 5.

Meanwhile, I can already see a slight shift in my thinking. Since I started back to trading I have had a lot of one-way only days, even if my trade direction was against the market, I felt better to focus on turning points in one direction. Yesterday, while I did not give any trade even the chance to run very far (as opposed to several trades in the past couple weeks that might have gone 25-30 ticks in my favor and then come back on me to breakeven), I did hit the market from both sides pretty fairly.







Timidly, yes. And was there a 50/50 chance I would be right about balanced? Of course. The small victory is that I am wanting to expand my understanding and that I am seeing little clues that I am accomplishing that.

I was talking with @josh about trading in the past week or two. I said to him, "But isn't part of the process having too much ego, not being receptive, thinking you understand, inability to follow simple instructions...", joking about it somewhat. But the reason it was kind of funny in the context of the discussion, is that it is so true.

To move forward I must; abandon ego, be open to new information, undertstand that I "know" nothing, and follow simple instructions.

Sounds easy. Not always so.

But it is feeling easier. And had I understood that feeling I have today back when I first started trading, things might have been much more relaxed than some of the intensity I went through. Would it have been possible to combine that sense of calm with the level of drive? I doubt it. Some things must be learned, but cannot be taught.

GaryD 

cant seem to stop scalping today... very hectic with calls, emails, texts...

The problem and it's cause in a single sentence.

GaryD 

I am long and that's my final answer

Here is one where I had determination to ride out my belief in the trade, as opposed to my approach to a balancing market on Friday. That trade I took my "banked risk" (new concept as of this week, not even sure I am using it correctly), and then the remainder came back on me.

Is it coincidence that when I held my position that day I was wrong, and then when I did not on Friday I would have been right?

Does that only happen to me?

That is why it is so important to find a belief system and stay faithful to it.

GaryD 

The cure to all is balance. Center. But we all swing away from center on some path, closer or wider, circular or linear, violent or subtle. And that is normal. The goal then, if looking for balance, seems like it would be to reduce the path of travel. But possibly balance is obtained by increasing acceptance of the volatility.

I must have been in an altered state of mind on this post. Not that what it says is wrong, I find it very accurate this morning. I find it very intriguing this morning. But the direction of thought was very complex, deeper than exists the majority of the time.

"possibly balance is obtained by increasing acceptance of the volatility"

As in, in market profile a narrow base versus a wide base. As in, allowing a profit target to remain until it is hit. As in, not having an expectation of a daily monetary goal but understanding that the volatility will eventually correct itself if I allow it to.


"The goal then, if looking for balance, seems like it would be to reduce the path of travel."

And that is what so many traders do wrong. Attempt to find a "system" that makes trading feel more believable. Attempt to engineer an entry with a 5 tick stop. Allow themselves to put unreasonable limitations on profit expectancy. Hold the belief that the way to win is to be right more often than wrong... In other words, attempt to "tame" the market.

But the opportunity exists in the appreciation of it being wild. Not without respect of course, without which, ego has taken control.

"balance is obtained by increasing acceptance of the volatility"

I am going to listen to that for awhile. Never had a post signature, maybe I will start.


I just realized the connection of that thought to the addition of a 4-week average in my performance reports. Wider range of review, longer time to correct. And going forward, adding another layer of average will give me specific areas of focus going forward, and a longer time horizon of expectation.

I just found an error in the Performance Report for the period 2/25/13 thru 3/1/13. Not sure why yet, Emailed NT. I understand the change in certain numbers, but not in Total Net Profit. Bottom line should not change when I am flat.

I spent some time entering each letter into a spreadsheet, feeling each day type unfold. They are organized in order of directional conviction with the first 3 periods highlighted for early recognition.

NT replied with the same info in the help section, but since I do not hold through weekends and was flat, to me Net Profit should not be any different no matter how it is organized. But, I went through my account statements and found that the lower net profit number was the correct one. Might have bothered me at some point, but it was a non-event emotionally. I just want it to be accurate so I can see the ratios.

What brought my attention to the reporting issue was not the money, it was the time in the market.

Organizing into a 4-week average will give me a benchmark for my performance, show me areas I can concentrate on going forward. This week the yellow highlighted areas in week 4 will be my focus.

Over the past few weeks I keep coming back to volume ladder,delta, cumulative delta volume. Maybe I am trying to make this more complicated than it should be, and I am already very comfortable with the 1m VSA method I use now, but inside that view there is additional data that could provide nuances, and knowing how much I use volume now, these indicators are like the new year's model of vehicle. Some tiny improvements, even through they may do the same thing (get you from A to Z) seem to draw me in whenever I have time to just sit in from of a chart on a weekend or at night. Trying to get something from Ryan's 1600 tick is pointless to me so far, but overlayed on a 1 minute might give an additional layer of vision.






And even though I am not familiar with these indicators, unlike when I might add a new indicator to a chart to see what it does, I already do understand what these indicators do very well. I have been attempting the same analysis without the indicators for years. Weird that I feel I can do it better without the indicator at this point... But I get comfortable in an area.

A symmetrical triangle inside a symmetrical triangle