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ON Profile: Another generally quiet night with a 7.25 pt range and 145k traded. pLo got taken out by a few ticks but rejected. The hi is currently 1673 so the 1675 LVN/breakdown area was not tested. Vpoc basically inline with yesterdays at 1671.75.
ES finally solf off yesterday ahead of the bernanke. There really is no telling what will happen today based on his testimony but I will say I think the key level will be 1675. Rejection from there will target 1670 then 1664 and possibly lower. Acceptance above there opens the door to another crack at all time hi and this time would be the third attempt which I don't think will hold. All time frames are very bullish.
Levels Above: 1675 LVN***, 1679.5 double top/all time hi, 1700
I see a good case for a bounce from 70, as it is the most fair price of the entire distribution. But HV prices are prices that have been accepted previously, and while they are sometimes good for a "buy/sell back at a fair value" trade, LV prices are previously rejected prices, which is why I'm surprised you did not consider 67. The bulk of value in those three days was 67 to 72 (and continues to be after day 4, Tuesday). If the most fair price at 70 does not find many buyers, and if the low of the 67-72 distribution fails to find buyers, then there's no way I'd look to 64s--at that point ES has rejected the high of the distribution, has traded through fair value, has traded through unfair lows, and so I would fully expect 60, the low of the entire group, to trade.
interesting and much appreciated. i had kind of given up on CLVNs since I had just been getting run over on them in my stats. I never know when to take them and when to avoid. i remembered those 67.5's having a never ending bid on friday and I was curious about what kind of reaction would happen there yesterday and was considering a buy but the low at 66.5 had almost 5k on the bid so I thought there was still more downside (if only a tick) and that 64.5s would be a nice spot to reverse...
1. Sold 1676.5 on 4.25 pt move up after 1 ticking the prior move hi at 1676.75 which gave a 4.5 pt pb. I wanted to sell the first move up to the 1675 LVN but waited to see how it would react and then missed selling 1676.25-would have been great trade and instant winner (but I wasn't on it). Second time up I debated whether the trade still had merit but given size of rotation and the 1 tick I took it. Scratched after 15 min and 1.5 MF vs 1.0 MA. Sellers showed little interest in taking it below the 1675 LVN and prices up here are being accepted so I bailed.
2. Long 1677.5- terrible trade location it seems but I have a bullish bias and ES opened OAIR above value and sellers couldnt even push to the 1675 LVN so I got long. Stopped after 4 min and .25 MF. Dang, well I got anxious and paid for it...
3. Sold 1677.25 vwap on 3 pt move after ES made new all time hi's by 3 ticks and was quickly rejected back inside IB and down to VAL. I am thinking context has majorly changed to downside for potential liquidation but who knows. First scale after 25 min and 1.25 MA. Really thought about bailing on it several times. It's been brought to my attention that the vwap is as flat as an ironing board today which does not make it an ideal location for trade entry. Second scale after 50 min. No third scale.
4. Long 1675 dVAL thinking that the upside is more likely than downside into the close. Profile looks complete to the upside I think but thats also due to the fact that the hi was so swiftly rejected. Hmm, instantly 6 ticks against me and now the low looks rather poor. Scratched after 19 minutes and .25 MF vs 1.5 MA though it looks like now some buyers are finally coming in. Would have been full loser.
Recap
ES opened OAIR above value in yesterdays upper distribution area and basically churned inside it all day with one fake breakout to the upside. Value and vpoc shifted higher. Price closed higher and inside value on light volume of about 1.1 mill. Profile shape is kind of balanced with two fangs if that makes sense. Based on the profile shape early afternoon I thought the market was ready to rip higher since there was a huge ledge around 1678 but after thinking about it it seems that it was probably due to everyone shorting under the assumption that the hi for the day was in. After the fake breakout I thought we would have a liquidation day on our hands but instead the market just churned so I still believe the path of least resistance is up but the market just was not ready to break out today.
I escaped with a meager profit today. Today sure seemed to be brimming with potential and we ended up with not even 8 pts of range and bush volume once again. That second trade I took was just awful but I got caught up in emotion and got scared i was going to miss the breakout. Before I put it on I was dreaming about taking my first scale and then letting my runner just go all day long, ha. Freaking thing only went 1 tick my way-classic. The other trades...not really sure what to say. Even my winner it seems after the fact was not good location nor in conception as the vwap was completely flat and indicative of balanced trading. The money trade was shorting the IBHI with stop at new HOD. The last long...prolly not a good idea but if I can take any solace it seems the market is letting me get out of trades for a scratch much more now and maybe that means I am making less-bad trades. Tomorrow is another day...
ON Profile: Small 6.75 pt range on very light volume of 108k. The low is below pLo by a point and the hi is right at that 1678.5 volume ledge from yesterday. Vpoc almost exactly inline with yesterdays at 1677.25. Profile shape has a nice lower tail then a boxy middle and poorish hi.
ES balanced yesterday inside the prior days upper distribution area. Despite a failed upside breakout of all time hi's, sellers were unable or unwilling to step in with any force. Overnight ES sold off a bit below pLo but was rejected and now finds itself above pVAH. This lingering around near all time hi's is getting annoying! I anticipate another crack at a breakout today but given the low volume and yesterdays failure, can we expect a move with force and staying power? I am doubtful but until something changes we must give bulls the benefit of the doubt. As I write, ES currently trading 1679.75 hi... All time frames are very bullish.
1. Long 1678.25 ledge from yesterday after ES opens OAIR above value and weakly sold off to print the 1677.5 nvpoc then bounced a bit. Targeting ONHI for first scale then breakout. First scale after 4 min and .25 MA. Would have gotten 2nd scale just now I think (520 traded) but I pulled it on the chance I have the tiger by the tail here and this is a real breakout so I am going to hold for a bigger target. Maybe this bites me in the ass, maybe not. It is now backtesting pHi, I hope this holds! It did (so far) and is now heading higher again. Took 2nd scale after 45 min for 7 pts- market has done nothing to tell me it is finished going up but this is my first big trade and i want to lock it in. I know its wrong but I want the satisfaction- as I write this its already trading 1.25 pts higher. Had I waited only another 8 mins I could have banked another 2 pts. Oh well, good trade!
2. Long 1683.5 dVAL/mid/eth vwap area with just a 1 lot. ES has gone switched from trend to balance mode but trying to play the long bias still. Scratched after 50 min and 1.5 MF vs 1.5 MA. Might try and re-enter lower. Would have been a winner.
Recap
Very interesting day today. ES opened OAIR above value and quickly broke higher to new all time hi's in what looked to be a trend day. It then morphed into a balanced p-shaped profile but then late selling at the close took price back inside pRange and nearly to the LOD before barely closing a tick above pHi. Value and vpoc shifted higher. Price closed modestly higher but below value. Volume was pretty pathetic heading into the closing fireworks but still only finished at a weak 1.17 mill. So we have a very shaky breakout with a daily candle that has a nice upper wick. I can't wait to see what ES does overnight and maybe we end up with an OAOR downside gap tomorrow with nice some selling follow through...or maybe the grind higher continues...
Really a great trading day for me, well actually one great trade. It could have been better and in the future it will be but I needed to just lock one in. A 7 pt winner feels nice. My morning plan and bias and trade execution just all came together perfectly and paid me which is great. I hope it happens again and more often! That second trade I think was a good trade but I didn't like how it kept getting rejected from rth vwap above and then went 1.5 pts in my face. Made an attempt to re-buy it a pt lower but no dice. Oh well. Tomorrow is another day, lets hope its a good one!
ON Profile: ES traded in a 7 pt range and light volume of 150k so far. Profile shape is pretty boxy with a nicer looking low than hi. ES dipped below pLo by a few pts but found buyers at the VAL from wednesday's RTH session and the ensuing ON session. The hi is a tick below pVAL. All in all a generally quiet session.
I was hoping to wake up to the ES trading around 1670 this morning but oh well. Its friday in the middle of summer and no economic data is scheduled so my expectations for today are not high. As it stands we are set to open right around where we opened yesterday so inside pRange and below value. Yesterday we rejected off the 1677.5 vpoc from wednesday. Given that we broke higher and then failed I am not interested in a long off the open today. I'm pretty confused about what to do today to be honest. pVAL has nice confluence with an LVN and is also the ONHI so perhaps an initial push up to there by responsive buyers would be a nice place to try a short. Acceptance above there targets 1684.25 nvpoc and then new all time hi's. Acceptance below pLo would target 1670 mc vpoc and then 1667 CLVN where my bias would turn bullish again unless the selling is serious and on hi volume. Overall, the market is still very bullish but today my initial bias is to the short side.
1. Sold 1681.75 after 1682.25 ONHI/LVN/pVAL was printed to the tick and just taking a chance at this being the hi as I had an overall slightly bearish bias going into the day. Apparently I double clicked and got short 4 so scratched 2 right away. First scale after 4 min and 0 MA. On the open swing ES traded up to 1682 and sold off then it came back and printed 82.25 where I got short. It gave me a scale quickly and popped up to my entry. I think I will put my stop a tick above the hi as that will be the third or fourth attempt up there. Maybe I should let this ride, maybe not. So it just 1 ticked the hi and has pulled back a bit, maybe this trade will work still. Took a 4 tick stop after 48 min...
2. Long 1682.25 IBHI/ONHI/pVAL on 2.75 pt pb. Not sure on this trade as its second or third pb to this level but so far ES has been accepted inside pVA and is one time framing higher and just printed the vwap/mid very weakly so I figured I would try the long. Promises to be a very slow trade if it works. Negative is that ES has been rejected from the nvpoc. Scratched after 15 min and 1.5 MF vs .25 MA...no confidence trade = scratch...might try and re-add lower. Would have been a winner after 3 hours.
Recap
ES opened OAIR below value and spent all day grinding higher into the close. Vpoc and value roughly in line with yesterday but shifted just slightly lower. Price closed above value and on the hi at all time hi's. Volume an incredibly bush league 911k. Kind of a fugly toothy balanced profile shape. ES one time framed higher the whole day. All eyes on 1700 next week.
Pretty unexciting day today. I started the day with a bearish bias, took the trade and got a scale then stopped on the second lot. It was a good trade I think and I was pretty sure I would get the second scale but the market had other plans. Second trade would have been great had I held it but I didn't feel like sitting through 3 hours without a scale. I need to work on that because there will be more days like today ahead. All in all I end the week with a few more coins in my pocket than I started with so I cant complain.
