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1. Long 1526 VAH/LVN on 2 pt pb with breadth +213 and tick -240. Solid uptrend all day. Don't like time of day of trade, been waiting to get long all since open but not aggressive enough. Poor-ish hi above due to 2400k contracts at top tick. Decent balance area above formed with 2 ticks having 35k contracts traded so think possible to rotate back there for a scale then new hi's at close. Another downside is vwap/vpoc is 6 ticks below, where my stop is. Plus, market has been closing inside of value lately. Scaled after 14 mins and 0 MA. Second scale given.
Recap
I had expected a rotational day but instead we got a breakout to the upside. Spoos opened OAIR inside value or very weakly OD. Initial clues given that demonstrated high demand for stocks were the open not even ticking below the open print and subsequent inability to print below it shortly thereafter. The open was also yesterdays vpoc so soundly rejecting yesterdays most traded price means something. Spoos broke higher, thru pHi and balance hi and never traded back into that range again. I wouldn't call this a true trend day, but rather a trend-consolidation-then trend again today. Funky double distribution-like profile with vpoc higher at 1524.5. Value area seems kind of meaningless today given that there is a large LVN in the middle of it but for what its worth, its higher. Price closed near the hi and above value-which is a change from late. Volume was bush at only 1.15 mill.
So we broke out of balance to the upside once again. The action at the close leaves us with a very poor hi so I expect that to be repaired and I also expect a test of the 1422 breakout level. Once again, the trend on all time frames is up...
My trading (or lack there of) sucked today. I was bid at 1522.25 all morning but market never came to me and I never paid up and therefore I stayed on the sidelines all day until the end. On directional days it seems you have to frontrun the vwap by a tick and then you are good. Do it!!! I am not even sure if the 1 trade I did make was valid. It worked but that doesnt mean anything.
Trend day low risk entries are difficult to find. I have been told that trend day trades off the +1 SD band is a good entry area. Would have been true today. Too risky for me. Looking for a pullback around the 10 am hour, sellers did enter the market as expected. I took a short when price pulled back from the +2 SD band. I held it until I was convinced that buyers, again, entered. I made a point and am happy with that.
I see your 1522. On a robust breakout price rarely looks back squeezing the shorts. From last night's low we have a 10+ handle move.
Yes. I would expect a test of 1522, previous weekly high.
ON Profile: We have a very tight 4 pt range overnight with a balanced profile. Yesterdays poor hi was cleaned up by printing 1530 while the 1426 low coincides with the LVN between yesterdays 2 distributions. ON vpoc sits at 1428.5. Market seems to indicate its comfortable trading this upper balance area and awaiting the fomc news this afternoon.
I am expecting an OAIR tight rotational day until the FOMC news comes out this afternoon. Then its anyone's guess. I would love to be a buyer on a nice move down to 1422. All time frames are trending higher.
You meant 1522 move down. I would agree and see that price in that area 1524 - 1522 as a probable entry area.
Weekly VWAP at 1524.
Near yesterday's IB low after 10:30 (on my chart) 1522.50
Weekly R1 1523.25
Retest yesterday's breakout as you mentioned
1. Long 1524.75 IBLO (1 tick ahead of nvpoc) on 2.25 pt move down after nvpoc traded and only small print below it with expectations of rotational day back toward vpoc above at 1526.75. Breadth -160 and in that area all day, tick -60 and neutral all day. Stopped after 5 mins and .25 MF.
2. Long 1522 on 5 pt move down. Breadth -230 and tick -347. This is key breakout area, really expecting this to hold. Scaled after 8 min and .25 MA. No second scale.
3. Long 1520.75 on 3.25 pt move with breadth -224 and tick -400. Expecting rotation back to 1422 breakout area. Market has been going down all morning and I have 3 buys and 0 sells for trades. Have to step back after this trade and re-evaluate my thoughts. Scaled after 32 minutes and 1.0 MA. Second scale given.
4. Long 1515 CLVN on 2.5 pt move down. Breadth -340 and tick -611. Stopped after 9 min and 1 MF.
5. Long 1510.75 CLVN on 1.5 pt move. Breadth -382 and tick -375. Did not like rotation at all but this was all about location of the trade. I felt I had to take it despite the strength of the trend down. Scaled after 3 min and 1.0 MA. No second scale.
Recap
What a day, did NOT see this coming at all. Spoos opened OAIR with a very tight 1 pt OS. First clue given was markets inability to print more than 2 ticks above the OPEN. Second was its inability to close over the vwap. A very narrow 3.25 pt IB was put in place combined with a balanced profile at the time, my expectations of a slow, rotational day ahead of FOMC were seemingly coming to fruition. After the Ib broke to the downside, a second balance area formed around the key 1422 breakout area, with 3 or 4 breaks below indicating interest to the downside. When that gave way the rout was on and full on trend down day persisted. Throw vpoc and VA out the window today because it didnt exist as market was exploring lower searching for buyers. We are left with an extremely gruesome daily candle that has closed beneath the prior balance area. Volume was extremely heavy at over 1.75 mill, the highest since Dec. 5.
I traded like a donkey today and am blessed to escape with a profit. Did not deserve that at all, making 5 buys on a strong down day. Next time I won't be so lucky...
ON Profile: Prices kept searching lower for buyers overnight. At the high of 09.75, price were cleanly rejected. The low at 01 looks very poor so leaning towards that side to be re-visited during RTH. Very odd shaped profile indicating no real acceptance of fair value. 730 numbers are out and we are currently trading 1503.5. Last time we were trading in this area was on 2-7 which was the day where we opened at 1508 then plunged down to 1494 before rallying back to close down 2 pts. That day possibly had an LVN at 1501 which could explain the ON low we have today. On vpoc sits near the low at 1503.5.
I am expecting an OAOR, possibly OAIR. Yesterday's heavy volume down day places us in the balance area between 1510.75 and 1498.75 with the most active price at 1502.75. 1505 was also very actively traded. I'm not really sure what type of day we have in store so I will be looking to fade those edges and then react to how they are treated.
1. Sold 1503.25 vwap on 1.75 pt move off lows on seeming OD lower open. Breadth -266 and tick +200. Scaled after 5 min and .75 MA. Second scale given.
2. Sold 1502.5 LVN on 3.25 pt move. Breadth -300 and tick +300. ES above the mid now and trend could be changing as buyers appear to have control with a strong 3.5 pt move off 97.25 low followed by another 3+ pt move now. Stopped after 4 min and .25 MF.
3. Long 1498.75 CLVN on 3.75 pt move down. Breadth -360 and tick -400. Market has been in balance for last 2 hours so playing a move back toward middle. Vpoc above at 99.75. Entirely questionable trade here given that I prefer to take trades off of CLVNs on first touch only and we have gone through it already. Stopped after 20 min and .75 MF.
Recap
Spoos opened below yesterdays range and proceeded to OD away from it eventually making its way down to the key 95.5 mc vpoc from the days of yore and reversing hard, nearly back up to the hi. We are left with a fairly balanced profile with vpoc significantly lower than yesterday along with value. Price finished lower once again. Volume extremely heavy, heavier than yesterday at 2.02 mill.
Strong sellers existed above 1505, so strong that a gap was left between 1505.5 and 1506.5. Strong buyers also existed around the 95 level. ES settled right in the middle of that range. Will look to those areas for clues as to what comes next.
I am very pleased with my first trade I did today. I identified the OD and sold the vwap pullback and was rewarded. I had to fight very hard to just sell it and see if the market will reward me and it did. Hopefully more trades like that in the future. My second trade was either unlucky or poor. Third trade...i dont know, probably bad idea. I am very disappointed with the two trades I did not do. I was bid 94.25 and I saw what seemed to be a very peculiar reaction when those 95s printed and immediately went 95.5 bid and I thought about getting onboard then as it was still a nice 4.25 pt rotation into that level but I didn't and watched it sail away. Then it appeared the IBLO was going to hold and I was too worried about it giving way so I didn't get in. What should have been the most important piece was the swift reaction below from a key level.
Also, anyone in the S5 chat room got their moneys worth today as FT put on a clinic. It was amazing on one hand but also truly disappointing on the other because it really showed how undeveloped my auction skills are and how far I need to go to get even close to where he is. Im just sitting here working clvn's and hvn's basically. And my pnl shows it...
ON Profile: We have a somewhat p-shaped profile forming. The majority of the volume has occurred above yesterdays afternoon swing hi with VAL equaling 1504.75 to the tick and vpoc placed at 1505.75 which was a tick above yesterdays Hi and in the gap zone. So, an extremely rejected price yesterday has now become the most accepted price yet today. The low is just 1 tick below settlement so buyers took the ball and ran with it from the get-go and while sellers resisted above pHi, buyers didn't back down and in fact kept going.
Bigger picture, ES is between the 1498.75 and 1510.75 CLVNs with the most traded price in the area being 1502.75. If it can work its way above the 1410.75 CLVN then 1413.25 mc vpoc is targeted and above that there is an LVN from 2-20 at 1514.25 and CLVN at 1515 as last line of defense before it runs up the flagpole to 1518.25. I am expecting an OAOR with responsive selling at the open. How far sellers get will help determine what kind of day we get. If they can push back into yesterday's range than 1502 and 1500 nvpoc become targets.
No trades today as I had to step away for the majority of the day*
(not entirely true- I sold 14.25 on the close and then scratched it right away knowing it was stupid and full of hope)
Recap
Spoos opened OAOR to the upside and the responsive selling I expected did not materialize right away. Spoos rotated up and failed 1 tick shy of the ONHI. Thats when sellers got the confidence to step in and they auctioned it lower down to pVAH before buyers stepped in and auctioned it higher steadily thru the day into the close. Definitely some chop in the earlier part of the day. Overall, we are left with a neutral extreme day. Value shifted higher, vpoc placed itself 1 tick above pHi. Price much higher on the day, +14. Volume was decent at 1.4 mill. We are now back in the 2-8 to 2-19 mc zone where 13.25 was the most fair price and we have re-traced half of the losses from the previous 2 days. Is this just a bounce with more downside to come or were the last 2 days just a blip in the march higher?
We've got all 3 time frames very much above their upward trend line. The daily chart possibly is transitioning from trending higher to balancing, only time will tell. I think we have a poor high at 1528.75, almost a double top with those 2 back to back days so I wouldn't be surprised to see a visit back up there to clean that up. On the other hand, that day when the 1528.75 5 year hi was made, volume was pretty wack at 1.17 mill-definitely not attracting many new buyers it seems at these levels. The following day had almost twice as much volume in the 20 pt sell off. Seems like something Dalton would point out when a counter-trend auction does so on a very significant volume increase. Sell-offs in general always seem to have more volume though so I don't know how to weigh the context. At the bottom, prices from 1495 were very swiftly rejected and with larger volume than the day before.
