You have exemplified the concept of thinking in terms of probabilities. I really really commend you for not only doing so, but for also sharing your journey with the rest of us. THANK YOU.

Kevlar, bullets & batteries checked and ready...
08:25 T-Minus 5...weapons live...head on swivel...eyes peeled...prepared to engage.

Trade #169
08:30 Short on valid setup. Win or lose, it's irrelevant. Record the trade, watch it, and learn...
08:32 Objective 1 achieved. +6 ticks.
08:32 Objective 2 achieved. +7 ticks.
Record results, stabilize/regroup, and prepare for the next assault. Focus only on the task at hand.

Trade #170
08:35 Short on valid setup. Win or lose, it's irrelevant. Record the trade, watch it, and learn...
T1 and T2 are the same.
08:36 No Joy. -10 ticks.
Record results, stabilize/regroup, and prepare for the next assault. Focus only on the task at hand.

Trade #171
08:46 Long on valid setup. Win or lose, it's irrelevant. Record the trade, watch it, and learn...
T1 and T2 are the same but I was so busy recording my trades that I forgot to modify T2. I realized it, modified it, and it was hit 1 minute after T1.
08:46 Objective 1 achieved. +6 ticks.
08:47 Objective 2 achieved. +6 ticks.
Record results, stabilize/regroup, and prepare for the next assault. Focus only on the task at hand.

Trade #172
08:52 Long on valid setup. Win or lose, it's irrelevant. Record the trade, watch it, and learn...
T1 and T2 are the same.
08:53 No Joy. -10 ticks.
Record results, stabilize/regroup, and prepare for the next assault. Focus only on the task at hand.

Trade #173
09:01 Long on valid setup. Win or lose, it's irrelevant. Record the trade, watch it, and learn...
T1 and T2 are the same.
09:02 No Joy. -10 ticks.
Record results, stabilize/regroup, and prepare for the next assault. Focus only on the task at hand.

Trade #174
09:09 Short on valid setup. Win or lose, it's irrelevant. Record the trade, watch it, and learn...
T1 and T2 are the same.
09:14 No Joy. -10 ticks.
Record results, stabilize/regroup, and prepare for the next assault. Focus only on the task at hand.

Enemy forces too strong. Retreat and RTB.
09:20 Dynamic/rolling loss limit reached. Done for the day.

AAR

• Objective: Follow mission plan with extreme prejudice.
• Outcome: Although early price action was fast and furious, I followed my plan without deviation. There just turned out to be too much non-directional swinging and I hit my rolling/dynamic loss limit for the day early on.
• Observations: Mid-morning, after hitting my loss limit, I was getting caught up with all of my trading paper/computer work, and marking subsequent setups/entries on my charts, when I was shocked to suddenly notice that I was in a good mood!
  
  After a losing day?! What the **** is going on here?!
  
  It literally gave me goosebumps as I realized that it's because I don't feel so lost, and that I honestly believe that I am making some progress.
  
  I'm following my rules and I'm starting to get enough days of consistent trading under my belt to begin truly believing that it is the long-term that matters. And that making sure that I'm still around when market structure is more conducive to my method is the name of the game (aka risk management).
  
  It's amazing how a losing day can be the impetus for such a powerful reinforcement of the important things that are becoming more apparent to me.

[img]https://nexusfi.com/v/ekk6ay.png[/img]
[img]https://nexusfi.com/v/qq5s3a.png[/img]

indextrader7 

You have exemplified the concept of thinking in terms of probabilities. I really really commend you for not only doing so, but for also sharing your journey with the rest of us. THANK YOU.

Thank you for the kind words @indextrader7 .

-AT

AttitudeTrader 

..............The other powerful lesson for me today is that having an idea about what the market should do at x or y level has no bearing whatsoever on what the market is going to do. In other words, until about 12:00CT I kept expecting the market to turn around and head back down because I had identified a couple important levels on a longer term chart (the reason I took that trade against my rules). But the market beat the **** out of those levels and did whatever it wanted to do. If I had kept trying to fade the highs instead of following my rules, I would have been beaten to bloody pulp. It is so much better to go with what the market is doing, than it is to try to figure out what the market is [I]going to do.........................

The Holy Grail

Kevlar, bullets & batteries checked and ready...
08:25 T-Minus 5...weapons live...head on swivel...eyes peeled...prepared to engage.

Trade #175
08:30 Short on valid setup. Win or lose, it's irrelevant. Record the trade, watch it, and learn...
T1 and T2 are the same.
08:31 Objectives achieved. +12 ticks.
Record results, stabilize/regroup, and prepare for the next assault. Focus only on the task at hand.

Trade #176
08:42 Short on valid setup. Win or lose, it's irrelevant. Record the trade, watch it, and learn...
08:47 No Joy. -10 ticks.
Feeling a tinge of disappointment/aggravation. Get over it! This trade is meaningless! Focus on the objective recruit!
Record results, stabilize/regroup, and prepare for the next assault. Focus only on the task at hand.

Trade #177
09:04 Long on valid setup. Win or lose, it's irrelevant. Record the trade, watch it, and learn...
T1 and T2 are the same.
09:08 Objectives achieved. +12 ticks.
Record results, stabilize/regroup, and prepare for the next assault. Focus only on the task at hand.

Trade #178
09:11 Long on valid setup. Win or lose, it's irrelevant. Record the trade, watch it, and learn...
T1 and T2 are the same.
09:16 No Joy. -10 ticks.
Record results, stabilize/regroup, and prepare for the next assault. Focus only on the task at hand.

Trade #179
09:47 Long on valid setup. Win or lose, it's irrelevant. Record the trade, watch it, and learn...
T1 and T2 are the same.
09:53 Objectives achieved. +12 ticks.
Record results, stabilize/regroup, and prepare for the next assault. Focus only on the task at hand.

Trade #180
10:09 Long on valid setup. Win or lose, it's irrelevant. Record the trade, watch it, and learn...
Trading right into a double top on 3min chart. Don't like this at all. Good observation grunt. File it, but maintain focus on the current mission plan.
10:14 No Joy. -10 ticks.
Record results, stabilize/regroup, and prepare for the next assault. Focus only on the task at hand.

Missed a winning entry
Things were happening a little too quickly and I wasn't as focused as I needed to be.

Trade #181
10:56 Short on valid setup. Win or lose, it's irrelevant. Record the trade, watch it, and learn...
T1 and T2 are the same.
10:58 No Joy. -10 ticks.
Record results, stabilize/regroup, and prepare for the next assault. Focus only on the task at hand.

Trade #182
11:44 Long on valid setup. Win or lose, it's irrelevant. Record the trade, watch it, and learn...
T1 and T2 are the same.
I'm pretty sure I'm going to get stopped out on this one. That doesn't matter candidate! Your only job is to carry out the mission protocol as it has been delivered to you! Get your priorities in line!
11:58 Objectives achieved. +12 ticks.
Record results, stabilize/regroup, and prepare for the next assault. Focus only on the task at hand.
Wow!

Trade #183
12:02 Long on valid setup. Win or lose, it's irrelevant. Record the trade, watch it, and learn...
T1 and T2 are the same.
12:08 No Joy. -10 ticks.
Record results, stabilize/regroup, and prepare for the next assault. Focus only on the task at hand.

Trade #184
Mistake 12:27 Long. Overlooked one parameter of my entry. As soon as I realized it I exited at entry price.
12:29 -0 ticks.
Record results, stabilize/regroup, and prepare for the next assault. Focus only on the task at hand.

Mission complete. RTB for AAR.
13:30 Friday cut-off time. No more new orders.

AAR

• Objective: Follow mission plan with extreme prejudice.
• Outcome: I missed a winning trade, and I had one minor mistake reading my trigger, but other than that I followed my plan without deviation. Although, I did have fairly strong doubts about at least one trade.</li>
• Observations: I had another chart with S/R lines on it and I marked the spots where I would have wanted to get long/short. I was 3 for 4 in picking levels that would have resulted in losing trades - showing me that sticking to my current plan is still the better option.

I'll be working my other job this afternoon and through most of the weekend, so my Weekend Review and Stats post will probably be a little late.

[img]https://nexusfi.com/v/5qk88x.png[/img]
[img]https://nexusfi.com/v/uxwyfw.png[/img]

been following your post...thanks for diligently posting your results. When you went to two cars do you take one off say at 6 ticks and keep the other for your final target or break even?

stoplight 

been following your post...thanks for diligently posting your results. When you went to two cars do you take one off say at 6 ticks and keep the other for your final target or break even?

Hey @stoplight ,

First car has a hard target, second car has a dynamic target based on current market structure. Often both targets are the same price due to the way I've structured my trade management rules.

And just to be clear, at this point I never move my stops - to breakeven or otherwise. That may change later though when I begin dealing with either more contracts or different target scenarios.

-AT

A review of the week

The previous week was my first losing week and I continued that with a pretty large losing day on Monday of this week.

But in my post at the end of Monday's session I said, "I also think this could quite possibly be the most valuable period during this exercise." As it turns out that was more true than I could have known. And because I stuck to my rules/plan I had my best day yet on Tuesday, and, against anything I could have predicted, I exceeded that on Wednesday.

This week I also experienced something very new for me: Neutral emotion/reaction to a losing day. On Thursday I was stunned to realize that after a losing day I was just in a "taking care of business" mentality, and not giving undue weight to what was just another "day at the office." I think the implications of this improved "state of being" are far-reaching and are going to begin making a difference at deeper levels of my psychology.

Ultimately this week has been an incredible reinforcement of the value of consistency for me.

A look at the stats

For the first time during this exercise Expectancy actually trended up. I expect it to wind around mostly in its current range, but it's nice to finally see it stop plunging.

[img]https://nexusfi.com/v/7sghdy.png[/img]

In looking at my stats I realized that I've been noting the drawdown I experience each week, but that number is not really what is important to me. For example, using my previous way of looking at drawdown each week, the number for this week would be $567.00. But what that doesn't show is that I had a much larger actual drawdown that continued from last week of $1,163.50. So my stats will now reflect the max continuous drawdown experienced during the course of each week.

[img]https://nexusfi.com/v/8jv5qe.png[/img]

I also want to reiterate here that I am well aware that the simulated/demo results I'm getting are better than I would expect to get in live trading, but this is still about the exercise in consistency and not the method. This whole training exercise is about getting used to the day-in, day-out grind of the business, and truly understanding what trading for a living is all about. At this point, the mentality that I'm developing is far more important to me than the results of any particular method.

Kevlar, bullets & batteries checked and ready...
08:25 T-Minus 5...weapons live...head on swivel...eyes peeled...prepared to engage.

Trade #185
08:33 Long on valid setup. Win or lose, it's irrelevant. Record the trade, watch it, and learn...
08:37 No Joy. -10 ticks.
Record results, stabilize/regroup, and prepare for the next assault. Focus only on the task at hand.
Stop exceeded by only 1 tick before price turned around to hit my targets.

Trade #186
08:45 Long on valid setup. Win or lose, it's irrelevant. Record the trade, watch it, and learn...
08:46 Objective 1 achieved. +6 ticks.
08:46 Objective 1 achieved. +7 ticks.
Record results, stabilize/regroup, and prepare for the next assault. Focus only on the task at hand.

Trade #187
08:50 Long on valid setup. Win or lose, it's irrelevant. Record the trade, watch it, and learn...
T1 and T2 are the same.
08:54 Objectives achieved. +12 ticks.
Record results, stabilize/regroup, and prepare for the next assault. Focus only on the task at hand.

Trade #188
08:58 Long on valid setup. Win or lose, it's irrelevant. Record the trade, watch it, and learn...
09:11 No Joy. -10 ticks.
Record results, stabilize/regroup, and prepare for the next assault. Focus only on the task at hand.

Trade #189
09:29 Short on valid setup. Win or lose, it's irrelevant. Record the trade, watch it, and learn...
T1 and T2 are the same.
09:40 No Joy. -10 ticks.
Record results, stabilize/regroup, and prepare for the next assault. Focus only on the task at hand.

Trade #190
09:56 Long on valid setup. Win or lose, it's irrelevant. Record the trade, watch it, and learn...
T1 and T2 are the same.
10:02 No Joy. -10 ticks.
Record results, stabilize/regroup, and prepare for the next assault. Focus only on the task at hand.
Another trade where my stop was exceeded by only 1 tick before price turned around to hit my targets.

Enemy forces too strong. RTB.
10:07 Dynamic/rolling loss limit reached. Done for the day.

AAR

• Objective: Follow mission plan with extreme prejudice.
• Outcome: Followed my plans/rules with precision and focus. This morning just turned out to be choppy and non-directional, and wasn't conducive to my method. I had 2 trades where my stop was exceeded by 1 tick before price turned back around to hit my target(s). Ultimately I hit my daily dynamic/rolling loss limit early again today.
• Observations: As I'm trading each day I watch levels that I think might be important on my main chart and on a time-based chart that is fairly close in time-frame to my main chart. What I'm finding is that I am far more often wrong than right about these levels. At this point my only plan is to continue to work with my current method while studying to see where I can improve what I'm doing.

[img]https://nexusfi.com/v/th4sxp.png[/img]
[img]https://nexusfi.com/v/v887g7.png[/img]

Kevlar, bullets & batteries checked and ready...
08:25 T-Minus 5...weapons live...head on swivel...eyes peeled...prepared to engage.

Trade #191
08:32 Long on valid setup. Win or lose, it's irrelevant. Record the trade, watch it, and learn...
T1 and T2 are the same.
08:35 Objectives achieved. +12 ticks.
Record results, stabilize/regroup, and prepare for the next assault. Focus only on the task at hand.

Trade #192
08:43 Long on valid setup. Win or lose, it's irrelevant. Record the trade, watch it, and learn...
I've taken this trade according to my rules, but based on my standard Fib extensions, I think I'm buying into a strong resistance area. Input noted. Maintain focus on the mission.
08:51 Objective 1 achieved. +6 ticks.
08:55 Objective 1 achieved. +8 ticks.
Record results, stabilize/regroup, and prepare for the next assault. Focus only on the task at hand.

Trade #193
09:06 Long on valid setup. Win or lose, it's irrelevant. Record the trade, watch it, and learn...
T1 and T2 are the same.
Again buying into strong resistance.
09:08 No Joy. -10 ticks.
Record results, stabilize/regroup, and prepare for the next assault. Focus only on the task at hand.
Stop exceeded by only 2 ticks before price turned around to reach targets.

Trade #194
09:23 Long on valid setup. Win or lose, it's irrelevant. Record the trade, watch it, and learn...
T1 and T2 are the same.
09:33 Objectives achieved. +12 ticks.
Record results, stabilize/regroup, and prepare for the next assault. Focus only on the task at hand.

Trade #195
09:53 Long on valid setup. Win or lose, it's irrelevant. Record the trade, watch it, and learn...
T1 and T2 are the same.
10:02 No Joy. -10 ticks.
Record results, stabilize/regroup, and prepare for the next assault. Focus only on the task at hand.

Trade #196
10:17 Long on valid setup. Win or lose, it's irrelevant. Record the trade, watch it, and learn...
10:36 No Joy. -10 ticks.
Record results, stabilize/regroup, and prepare for the next assault. Focus only on the task at hand.

Trade #197
11:06 Long on valid setup. Win or lose, it's irrelevant. Record the trade, watch it, and learn...
T1 and T2 are the same.
11:20 No Joy. -10 ticks.
Record results, stabilize/regroup, and prepare for the next assault. Focus only on the task at hand.

Enemy forces too strong. RTB.
11:25 Dynamic/rolling loss limit reached. Finished for the day.

AAR
Objective: Follow mission plan with extreme prejudice.
Outcome: Followed my rules without deviation, but still hit my dynamic/rolling loss limit for the day.
Observations: I made note of areas where I thought price would run into strong resistance. It didn't happen, and I'm extremely glad that I just made note of those levels but still followed my rules.
I found myself getting a little frustrated this morning, but once I realized it I started changing the focus of my thoughts. I'm finding that when I focus my thoughts on things like what changes I may make to my method later, or getting prepped for the next setup, I don't feel nearly as much anxiety about one or two (or three!) losing trades. Kind of like "there's a bigger picture to focus on than these most recent trades."

Time to modify the method

I'm ready to make another change to my method. I'm almost at trade #200, and I didn't make any changes at #150, so I'm going to implement it starting tomorrow. It will be a simple change to the exit level for my second lot on each trade.

The stats I'm keeping are showing me that a target level that I'm tracking should provide me with a 45% greater profit per lot than the current base target I have. What will be difficult to deal with is that this more distant target is only hit 71% of the time. This means that it is possible that I may have to endure even longer/deeper drawdowns than I have been. I'll be implementing a different stop management scenario for this second lot, so that might help to minimize the potential drawdown number.

Another thing this change will affect is my trade management. Because T2 is going to be farther out, there will be times when I will be entering a new setup when T2 from the previous setup hasn't been reached yet. This will require even more focus on my part to manage these multiple positions. I will also have to get experience in how my order entry platform reacts to these situations.

I'm finding it interesting (again) that I haven't yet found a "better" entry method, but that I'm still (hopefully) improving the performance of my method without changing the setup/entry itself. I still want to improve my trade selection, but I'll just have to keep my eyes open for a better way.

[img]https://nexusfi.com/v/8wyyqk.png[/img]
[img]https://nexusfi.com/v/v3jh8g.png[/img]