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Many thanks for the feedback!! The hard part going forward will be not to fall off the wagon and back into bad habits. If I can stick with this until the new habits are hardwired into my brain then I have a excellent chance to make it to the promise land.
No trading today. Had technical issues most of the morning and as the details of what happened in Connecticut came out I could no longer focus on trading. I am deeply saddened for the kids and their families. Having a son of my own I cant even a imagine...There are no words... My heart and prayers go out to them.
By nature I am a very cautious investor. I want to know what I am getting into before jumping in. When I started looking at Top Step Trader and running the numbers I decided I needed a global view of all my options to make my decision. So I created a TST Risk Mgmt spreadsheet. The idea behind it is simple; Show how many trades I can risk losing per day before hitting my loss limit and show what the avg number of ticks needed per day to hit the profit target. I also wanted to be able add cushion into the avg daily tick total to make up for losing days. Below is resulting grid.
The psychological aspect of trading 150K acct is what makes it hard when there is the potential to lose 3K in a single day. To get around this I am taking a different approach; I am just focusing on ticks. If I can hit a 15+ tick targets on a consistent basis then what does it matter how many contracts I trade? It doesn't. Personally I am able to wrap my mind ticks much easier than a dollar amount because the tick amount is static and does not change whereas the dollar amount changes based on how many contracts are traded. Being down a 1000 bucks has more of an impact than being down 10 ticks.
This exercise proved to be quite useful in determine what account size to trade. It turns out it really does not matter. The account sizes are proportional in size except the 30,000. This means if you keep the number of contracts proportional then the loss limits and avg profit needed will also remain proportional. This really simplifies things. Now a trader can focus on creating just one trading system which fits into the TST trading parameters. Then choose a account size which fits your monetary goals. I like simple!! The Avg Tick Per Day needed for the 50K, 100K & 150K are 13, 13 & 14 respectively.
I did notice the numbers on the 10 day combines are more erratic and less proportional than the 20 day combine. The avg profit needed per day for the 50K, 100K & 150K are 18, 22 & 20 respectively. In this case the 150K account requires less ticks than the 100K account.
I have attached the spreadsheet for those interested. I hope this helps traders make a better decision on how to trade TST account. Please let me know if there are questions.
Tip
The Cells in Blue are what can be changed. Everything else is static or is formula based so don't change them!!
There are filters on the Starting Capital and Days columns which can be used to show consolidated views.
why not do a customized combine...this was accepted customized combine by tst for a trader on another forum (ET) (pasted below).
for 20 day combine, basically trade a minimum of 20 days, up to maximum trade days within 60 calendar days. this way u don't have do the whole minumum ticks per day and tailor your plan and method to tst specific. you could still pull off
16k in 60 calendar day period. this is what i intend to do...
there are other possibilities, like propose to start with 30k 20 day tst customized combine with parameter above as well as such that once you build up your cushion (i.e. 5k) and not take any money out, then increase daily limit loss or change something else, again to fit you own original plan.
cashish wrote something in his tread about people trying to develop their method and strategy around combine, and not try to customize combine to fit them.
just my 2 cents, good luck,
tihfa
"Quote from MichaelPatak:
Maverick-
Here is what we were able to get approved at this time:
Duration:
- 20-Day Combine (to be completed within 60 calendar days)
- ADD: Trade a continuous combine: ANY DAY WITHIN 60 calendar days, minimum 20 trading days, maximum up to the number of trading days within the 60 day calendar period.
Account Parameters:
$30,000 account / $500 loss limit / 3 lot buying power
Combine Objective:
Profit: $2000 AND adhere to the Scouting Criteria, with exception to the following changes:
Please indicate if you propose omitting, adding or editing any of these from your Combine objective requirements. Fill in the amounts, if applicable:
-Overall Combine Winning Day % greater than __50___ (standard is 50)
___2__ of the ___3__ performance requirements must be met for all products traded:
-Overall Average Win greater than Overall Average Loss
-Overall Average Win Duration greater than Overall Average Loss Duration
-Total Win % of _45____ or greater (standard is 45)
Thanks for the feedback! I am still in the process of determining my trading strategy. I may end up doing a custom combine, however, I need more trading results make that decision.
The original intent of this exercise was to determine what account size to choose. As I was developing the spreadsheet I had a couple ah-ha moments and realized I was looking at it all wrong. Its not about the account size its about the trading system. Build a system which can meet the TST criteria then choose the account size for your monetary goals. This is a lot simpler than trying to build a custom system for each account size.
I think the max contract size is deceiving and leads traders to trade larger than they should. This leads to failure. The spreadsheet proves you can trade small across all account sizes and comfortably hit the tick per trading day target and ultimately the profit target for the combine
I remembered last week that I had a bar type called Channel Trend. I had played around with this about a year and half ago but could not get it to work. The biggest reason it didnt work is because I didnt know how to trade. I started playing around with it last week applied the trading techniques I have learned over the last couple of months. I started seeing entry opportunities based on trend bounces and double bottom breaks and second entries on a pullback. Most of time these run 10 to 15 ticks which is right in my target range. I have found the entries work in CL as well. Today was the first day I applied and stuck to just these rules and the outcome was awesome. I need more testing time to verify today was not a fluke.
The Price Action Swing pro indicator works very well with these bars. Identifying the HL, LH etc has helped with trade setups and help stay away from counter trend entries.
One of the better parts about using these bars is the ability to place stop entry orders. This has helped me get into trades which I would have might have otherwise hesitated or missed the entry completely. My condfidence with these entries is still not there. I cut most of the trades short today. Left 50+ ticks at least on the table.
Something else I have been toying with is a single trade per day. Currently have a 1 contract position in CL +94 ticks. The hardest part is determining a entry point and direction and making sure the stop is far enough out to let the trade develop.
I have lots of options on the table and I am getting more comfortable with my trading. My path to full time trading is getting closer which each trade I take. In the immortal words of James Brown; I feel good!!
Robert
What was the best thing that happened to me today:
I followed my rules
I was totally relaxed while trading.
What was the worst thing that happened to me today:
Today was a decent day. I messed up on the 1st trade and got in to late. Honestly, I shouldn't have taken the trade. I moved my stop entry lower, then when it hit the 200 sma and started to bounce I stuck with it instead of admitting it was not going to go any lower and exiting the trade. Second trade was break even.... 3rd and 4th trades were breaks outs of double bottoms. Hit my target on both. The final trade I got caught in a bear trap. My emotions kicked in big time. I decided to quit for the day since I had lost my emotional edge.
Robert
What was the best thing that happened to me today:
I quit when I realized I lost my emotional edge.
What was the worst thing that happened to me today:
Did not exit the trade the 1st trade @ BE when I had the chance.
Attached is the weekly summary from 12-26 - 12-28.
I don't think I have mentioned this but one of the things I have done is added a trailing stop to my trades. I have reduced the stop loss from 15 ticks to 10 ticks. This has helped with keeping the total loss under the max loss of 10 ticks.
With the reduced stop loss I can raise the total number of contracts from 6 to 8 and and still keep within my risk management model. I am going to run market replay this weekend on some random days and compare the outcome based on 6 and 8 contracts.
I used a two target strategy for trading. First target @ 10 ticks with 4 contracts. Second target @ 15 ticks with 2 contracts. I still have not found the optimal setting for the targets. I am not a big fan of multiple targets but I really would like to catch some of the bigger runs on GC. This a catch22 for me...
If you believe the MFE, then a 7 tick target would have a net profit 1000 dollars more than I ended up with an additional 2 wins. Then again, if I would have let a few of the trades run instead of closing them out I would have hit the 10 tick target and had a 1000 dollars more.
The hard part going forward will be not to fall off the wagon and back into bad habits. If I can stick with this until the new habits are hardwired into my brain then I have a excellent chance to make it to the promise land. 
