also note on post 1080 - the R-2 level ,lines up near perfect of the first high - so i am still looking for a retest of the R-2 area - even though the trade has given us a flatline long signal

got close to our pull back target #6 on chart -R2.

another quiet day -

always check your pivots -to make sure your on the correct side of the move -

still short 1412 -stop 15 points

on this mornings post we showed the 47% level which we were calculating in for a reversal in the 10:47 time area - now if we would have played all entries both short and long -
short 1412 to long 1414 = minus 2 points
long 1414 to short 1414 = 0 points
short 1414 to long 1414 = 0 points
long 1414 to short 1414 which was 2 bars after the faster ma crossed trendline = 0 points

thus we are still short from friday @1412 -trade currently 3 points in the green as of 3:17 est

f16 took her final trade today - put her in with the bigdogs on the TF - we told her ride it till it tells you to get out -

-

took the pic at time of exit -she was a happy girl -as it was her spending money for the shore

UPDATED 30 min chart as of 3:33 est 8/21

"this is why we run a 15 point stop - i know some will have a hard time justifing it - but we are up better than 68 points in 4 weeks on this swing pattern -3400 per contract traded (10,000) or 34% for the last month-"

Give it time. The Law of Large Numbers hasn't kicked in yet.

All I can tell you with 100% confidence from 9 yrs of full-time trading is that, given your long-term expectancy is positive, the winning pct and the RR ratio will always be inverse to one another. For example, if you ever get to thinking that you've found a 2:1 RR system with an avg win pct of 60%, you are being deceived by the short-term results. If the 2:1 part stays solid, the long-term will gravitate the win pct. down towards the low 40's.

This is a general comment. But it's an important one. Larger stops and larger targets cannot alter the above maxim. It is as golden as golden gets in this biz.

Hi Steve - we only run a large stop - many of our trades get 2 or 3 or 4 points sometimes only 1 and have seen as high as 27 in the last several weeks -the large stop handles entries and stop out below the recent low for most traders than moving in the direction of the trade in question - i personally have no idea what the r/r is on this setup for the last 4 weeks but the charts are in this post if you care to research them - maybe form here on i will give that info week to week -- in our 34% increase we have been stopped out twice by not catching jumpers - thankyou for your comments and i will try and post the r/r per week -

so i am assuming if the trade gained 2 points the r/r would be -negative 7.5 to 1
would this be correct ?

SteveH 

"this is why we run a 15 point stop - i know some will have a hard time justifing it - but we are up better than 68 points in 4 weeks on this swing pattern -3400 per contract traded (10,000) or 34% for the last month-" Give it time. The Law of Large Numbers hasn't kicked in yet. All I can tell you with 100% confidence from 9 yrs of full-time trading is that, given your long-term expectancy is positive, the winning pct and the RR ratio will always be inverse to one another. For example, if you ever get to thinking that you've found a 2:1 RR system with an avg win pct of 60%, you are being deceived by the short-term results. If the 2:1 part stays solid, the long-term will gravitate the win pct. down towards the low 40's. This is a general comment. But it's an important one. Larger stops and larger targets cannot alter the above maxim. It is as golden as golden gets in this biz.

many action levels