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Webinar: FuturesTrader71 (FT71) on Risk, Sizing, Scaling and Trade Management


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Webinar: FuturesTrader71 (FT71) on Risk, Sizing, Scaling and Trade Management

  #21 (permalink)
 
Big Mike's Avatar
 Big Mike 
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Very insightful using his real live risk screen from live traders, and their habits being demonstrated openly.

Mike

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  #22 (permalink)
 
Big Mike's Avatar
 Big Mike 
Manta, Ecuador
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"I would rather go out and pay for a P90X and put it on my shelf, than exercise."

Love it. Relates to buying trading advice from vendors.

Mike

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  #23 (permalink)
 
Big Mike's Avatar
 Big Mike 
Manta, Ecuador
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And another great webinar!

I will post the recording sometime tomorrow most likely.

Mike

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  #24 (permalink)
 
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 trendisyourfriend 
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Big Mike View Post
Very. Next. Trade.

Not a string or series of trades (ie "edge").

Mike

I still think the 50/50 right/wrong ratio is not appropriate. Maybe it's a question of semantic but if your edge is greater than 50% then the very next trade has an implied chance to be right equal to your edge (+/-) otherwise why would you risk placing a trade. The way it is formulated here implies that all of your trades are independent but it is not the case. However, it is safe to say you are not sure at 100% if the very next trade will fall within your overall cumulative winning % so far.

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  #25 (permalink)
 
Big Mike's Avatar
 Big Mike 
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trendisyourfriend View Post
I still think the 50/50 right/wrong ratio is not appropriate. Maybe it's a question of semantic but if your edge is greater than 50% then the very next trade has an implied chance to be right equal to your edge (+/-) otherwise why would you risk placing a trade. The way it is formulated here implies that all of your trades are independent but it is not the case. However, it is safe to say you are not sure at 100% if the very next trade will fall within your overall cumulative winning % so far.

Since you believe you can predict the odds of the very next trade, why do you take losing trades? Just skip those.....

Mike

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  #26 (permalink)
 
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 Sunil P 
los angeles
 
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trendisyourfriend View Post
I still think the 50/50 right/wrong ratio is not appropriate. Maybe it's a question of semantic but if your edge is greater than 50% then the very next trade has an implied chance to be right equal to your edge (+/-) otherwise why would you risk placing a trade. The way it is formulated here implies that all of your trades are independent but it is not the case. However, it is safe to say you are not sure at 100% if the very next trade will fall within your overall cumulative winning % so far.

its is more like 33/33/33 most of the time and 50/50 during the opening swings (CL anyway). Generally speaking of course.

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  #27 (permalink)
 
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 blueline 
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trendisyourfriend View Post
I still think the 50/50 right/wrong ratio is not appropriate. Maybe it's a question of semantic but if your edge is greater than 50% then the very next trade has an implied chance to be right equal to your edge (+/-) otherwise why would you risk placing a trade. The way it is formulated here implies that all of your trades are independent but it is not the case. However, it is safe to say you are not sure at 100% if the very next trade will fall within your overall cumulative winning % so far.

I don't understand either; if every trade is 50/50 how can a string of trades be any better than 50/50?
The only way it can work if winners are greater than losers

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  #28 (permalink)
 
trendisyourfriend's Avatar
 trendisyourfriend 
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Big Mike View Post
Since you believe you can predict the odds of the very next trade, why do you take losing trades? Just skip those.....

Mike

I agree you can't predict at 100% the outcomes of a trade. But seeing each trade as a 50/50 proposition is not exact either. Don't read me wrong, i know what you mean but you are not using the right words.

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  #29 (permalink)
 
Big Mike's Avatar
 Big Mike 
Manta, Ecuador
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There are two outcomes to the next trade.

Win
Lose

Scratch = loss, commissions/time

Two outcomes = 50/50

We are talking only about the very next trade. Not a string of trades.

If you could predict the future, and you knew the next trade was a loser, why take it?

If you could predict the future, and you knew the next trade was a winner, why not trade 1,000 lots?

Mike

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  #30 (permalink)
 
Big Mike's Avatar
 Big Mike 
Manta, Ecuador
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Thanks Received: 101,537



trendisyourfriend View Post
I agree you can't predict at 100% the outcomes of a trade. But seeing each trade as a 50/50 proposition is not exact either. Don't read me wrong, i know what you mean but you are not using the right words.

Did you watch this and the last FT71 webinar?

Mike

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