Hi GFI,

I run into your thread today and have enjoy reading it a lot.

I do also trade based on statistics on the Forex markets (rules based on price action, then programmed to and backtested). I trade some strategies on certain days, I open and close with times/price combination, and have rather large stops.

I like how you are now trading only certain days, that have a higher probability of being a winner.

However, what I like most about your system is that you follow every rule. I have found that many times the "best looking trades" in my system, dont work out, and some "ugly" trades do. So that always helps remind me of " just follow my systems rules"

I also like that you have big stops, to allow the trade to develop. Over the years, I have found that to be a critical element to trading (specially a system based trading method).

Congratulations on your positive results, Thank You for sharing, and I will follow your thread with great interest

Hector Sanchez

Hi @hectormas

Thanks for your input - yes - stops are very important.
In my system a stop is only to prevent a desaster drawdown.
Every stop in a system has to be tested out depending on the volatility of the instrument.
Here on the Dax 30 points (750 EUR which is quite much) has been statistically a good
place to end a trade that is really going false - no matter the time passing. On the other
hand the trades that are not stopped out need to be with higher reward (monthly) to
make our overall gain positive
As my system does not distinguish between trending days or range days, a stop has to
cover ALL occurences. Therefore one has to test back enough days to find the best place
for the stop after one enters a trade. Positive outcome means that the homework was
done properly.
Even we know that a system does NOT work under any circumstances and may been thrown
out by the market - that one day trading has now a very long positive curve. I assume that
the behaviour of the mass of market participants does not really change over time:
this means I am counting on daily and weekly participants who are entering markets at
certain hours regarding the development of price and exit accordingly.

Good trades and much fun
GFIs1

Dax short 09:30 to 15:30

entry @ 7957

exit @ 7958

result minus 1 point

risk - medium

outlook - passing further on this downleg - last trade of the march future today - rollover friday

GFIs1

ATTENTION here: quite a big volume up to now - the main long holders have sold their share up to now...
some quite heavy movement (down) from now on may happen - be careful

Update - strange US numbers 13:30 were responsible to a up-jump.
In fact - the 1h chart shows price still in bearish Kumo.

Triple witch day as everybody knows by now.
So from today the June contract will be traded here.

Dax long from 10:30 to 14:30

entry @ 8057

exit @ 8046

result min. 11 points

risk - medium

outlook - some retracement at Initial Balance to shoot off to kill the 8100 expected

GFIs1

Yesterday, you told me il was going down

Hi @AnasParis

Very true - traded only after my signals today...
Looks like the market had no more breath to kill that 8,1K
before a bigger plunge.
Taking that signal to prepare for some coming short days now
As announced - a triple witch week has always some surprises.

Have a great weekend
GFIs1

Small loss in a volatile triple witch week:
This week had 3 trades
One positive + 4 points
Two negative -1 -10 points
Total weekly: - 7 points
Total points since week 2: 260

GFIs1

GFIs1 

Hi @AnasParis ... Looks like the market had no more breath to kill that 8,1K before a bigger plunge. Taking that signal to prepare for some coming short days now ...

GFIs1 

Bonsoir AnasParis Merci pour une bonne question - je pense on peut laisser passer encore une petite semaine ou les indices peuvent fixer des jolies ultra - hauts Mais après - comme discuté - les prix pour soutenir ces hauts doivent avoir beaucoup plus de volume. Comme ça je regarde la prochaine semaine comme surprise - puis retour à la realité! Bon weekend GFIs1

Looks like these predictions (short after 15th of march) are true.

GFIs1

Dax long 10:30 to 13:00

entry @ 7980

exit @ 7971

result minus 9 points ***

risk - medium

outlook - some consolidation on this lower level today - 7976 (POC) should be targeted several times

GFIs1


*** for the brave ones - exit 17:29h.. might push up higher (result will not be counted here though)

Good morn all or good evening if u are in Asia .

Bit confused by this statement GFIs1 " outlook - some consolidation on this lower level today - 7976 should be reached"
as dax has already hit 7976.5 and 4 mins ago double topped at 7975.5 ?

cheers